The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Table of Contents

9. Executive summary
10. Telecoms market revenue in MENA will grow to USD69.0 billion in 2023, amidst market saturation, increased competition and challenging operating conditions
11. Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD3.6 billion between 2018 and 2023, primarily driven by revenue growth in mobile data and fixed broadband services
12. Geographical coverage: we model 12 telecoms markets, which will account for 91.2% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2023
13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
14. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
15. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
16. Market context: the 12 countries modelled accounted for 82.7% of the total population and 92.8% of the telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2017
17. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
18. Key drivers at a glance for each market in the Middle East and North Africa
19. Market overview: mobile services will drive revenue growth in the region, but fixed broadband and business services will see the strongest revenue growth up to 2023
20. Mobile: LTE take-up is accelerating in several markets and mobile 5G will launch in 2019; this is contributing to traffic growth, but is also slowing down the ARPU drop
21. Mobile: market maturity, enforced SIM registration policies and economic slowdown have led to a contraction of the subscriber base in some countries
22. Mobile: growth in the demand for data services combined with the migration to postpaid plans, 4G and 5G will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
23. Mobile: data revenue will help to offset the slowdown in revenue growth for legacy services
24. Fixed: broadband market penetration will grow in most countries, driven by consumer and enterprise demand and new infrastructure investments
25. Fixed: broadband penetration of households will grow in all modelled countries, supported by competition and national broadband plans
26. Fixed: speed upgrades and the improved access and affordability of fibre services will help to ensure that the broadband average revenue per line remains high
27. Fixed: the broadband market will grow steadily, while voice revenue will decline due to decreasing usage and increased competition from mobile
28. Business services: operator revenue from large enterprises will rise as the demand for data connectivity, IoT and other business services grows
29. IoT: the IoT market will generate just over USD6.2 billion in revenue in 2023 supported by strong growth in the number of M2M connections
30. Pay TV: the number of IPTV subscribers will increase; paid-for OTT-to-the-TV penetration will only be significant in certain countries
31. Individual country forecasts
32. Egypt: the telecoms sector has promising prospects supported by the launch of 4G and the planned investment in fixed–line infrastructure
33. Egypt: demand for data services will help to boost the number of 4G and fixed broadband connections in the market over the forecast period
34. Egypt: a new mobile entrant has shaken up the market, and the number of fixed broadband connections looks to grow despite the lack of competition
35. Egypt: we predict that there will be a more positive outlook for fixed broadband revenue and 4G penetration in the market
36. Kuwait: recent market recovery and investments in fixed infrastructure should provide a basis for future revenue growth
37. Kuwait: a strong demand for 4G services will help to maintain a high mobile ARPU against a backdrop of limited growth in user numbers
38. Kuwait: mobile revenue growth will be limited by market saturation, but the fixed market is poised for revenue growth thanks to investment
39. Kuwait: we have adjusted the forecast for fixed and mobile broadband connections as a result of newly available market data
40. Oman: there will be steady revenue growth despite the challenging market conditions with a third mobile entrant and regulatory pressures
41. Oman: the entrance of a third mobile player is expected in 2H 2018; this will support subscriber base growth but erode market value
42. Oman: uncertainty over the identity of the third entrant continues, while the outlook for fixed broadband remains positive
43.Oman: we have revised our mobile market growth and fibre penetration outlook
44.Qatar: economic isolation will negatively affect the market growth, but preparations for the 2022 FIFA World Cup should add some momentum
45.Qatar: the market appears to withstand diplomatic and economic sanctions and we expect to see moderate revenue growth going forward
46.Qatar: the market will struggle to maintain growth despite the apparent resilience of Qatar’s economy so far
47.Qatar: our revised forecast reflects the mobile market contraction and the strong erosion of mobile broadband ARPU in 2017
48.Saudi Arabia: the mobile market will recover in the medium term thanks to an improving economy and strong demand for data services
49.Saudi Arabia: the demand for data will compensate for falling revenue from voice services while investments in 5G and fibre will spur future growth
50.Saudi Arabia: economic reforms, the award of new spectrum and investment in fixed infrastructure should help the market’s slow recovery
51.Saudi Arabia: adjustments have been made to the mobile broadband and 5G penetration, but the market outlook is largely the same as before
52.UAE: we expect a positive overall outlook for revenue growth, despite increased market competition and slow economic and population growth
53.UAE: consumer and enterprise demand for digital services and the improvement of the economy will offer opportunities for growth
54.UAE: investment in infrastructure and capabilities will help operators to capture opportunities beyond broadband connectivity
55.UAE: we have revised our forecast for mobile market growth down and have increased the adoption fixed–wireless and mobile 5G penetration
56.Methodology
57.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
58.Examples of forecast input drivers
59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
60.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
61.About the authors and Analysys Mason
62.About the author
63.About Analysys Mason
64.Research from Analysys Mason
65.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017 and 2023
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers for the current situation (2017) and the future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Egypt (EGP billion), 2013–2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013–2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Egypt, 2013–2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013–2023
Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Egypt, 2013–2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Egypt (EGP per month), 2013–2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Egypt (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Egypt (million), 2013–2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2013–2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2013–2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2013–2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, 2013–2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2013–2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2013–2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2013–2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2013–2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2013–2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Oman, 2013–2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2013–2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2013–2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2013–2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013–2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2013–2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013–2023
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2013–2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2013–2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2013–2023
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2013–2023
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2013–2023
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2013–2023
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2013–2023
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2013–2023
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2013–2023
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2013–2023
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2013–2023
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2013–2023
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2013–2023
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2013–2023
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2013–2023
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2013–2023
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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