The Mexican Defense Industry – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

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Date: 7-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 113
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Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the Mexican defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?

The Mexican defense Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the Mexican defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

During the review period, the Mexican defense budget recorded a CAGR of 8.6%, as expenditure was driven by measures to control drug trafficking and organized crime and through contributions to United Nations (UN) peacekeeping missions. In 2012, the Mexican defense budget stood at 0.5% of GDP, and is expected to increase to 0.6% of GDP by 2017 as a result of an increase in defense expenditure of US$9.55 billion by 2017. Between 2007 and 2011, Mexico’s capital expenditure allocation stood at 3.8% of the total defense budget, and is expected to increase to 4.2% over the forecast period due to higher allocation for equipment purchases; consequently, the share of revenue expenditure in the total defense budget is expected to decline from an average of 96.2% in the review period, to an average of 95.8% in the forecast period.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

Mexico’s campaign against drugs gained momentum after President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006, and has resulted in the death of over 5,700 people in 2008 and 7,000 people in 2009, as opposed to 1,300 people in 2005. Moreover, the drug gangs are reported to have access to high end sophisticated weaponry such as grenades, launchers, machine guns, mortars, and anti-tank rockets that are traded across the border with the immediate neighbor, the US. In response to this, the Mexican MoD is acquiring city-wide surveillance and monitoring systems, UAVs, aerostats, medium-lift helicopters, maritime patrol aircraft, and aircraft with advanced electro-optical surveillance turrets. Despite 45,000 troops already deployed to contest the cartels, the government is expected to increase this number, which will result in drug trafficking becoming a significant driver of HLS spending during the forecast period.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?

The Mexican defense Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits

  • The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
  • The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Mexican defense industry.
  • The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
  • The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
  • The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Mexico. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

  • Corruption is rampant in the Mexican armed forces, specifically in the army. There is increasing evidence of the expanding role of the Mexican military in the drug war and it is suspected that arms procured by the army are passed to the drug cartels, which use the arms to enhance their drug trade. There is also concern that US aid to Mexico — US$1.4 billion has been pledged to help Mexico reduce drug trafficking — could be used for criminal activity or for personal gain by top military officials. Moreover, there is lack of transparency in defense contracts awarded to international suppliers, with the government classifying most defense procurements as top secret. Overall, corruption and a lack of transparency hinder the growth of Mexico’s defense industry.
  • As the Mexican defense industry comprises only state-owned companies with little specialization in weapon categories, the resulting lack of advanced defense technology means that foreign weapon suppliers that intend to conduct business in Mexico face infrastructure challenges. Although foreign suppliers can bring advanced technology to Mexico, this results in technology imports without offset incentives as the defense offset terms are not clearly defined by the Mexican MoD; consequently, foreign suppliers find it challenging to pursue a defense opportunity in Mexico.
  • Offset obligation provides an opportunity for the development of domestic infrastructural and technological capabilities; however, Mexico has not disclosed any offset obligations imposed for its arms procurement, which is partially responsible for the lack of development in the domestic defense industry. Lately, in March 2009, its first major offset agreement was signed between Mexico and France, in which, with the purchase of six EC 725 multipurpose helicopters worth US$300 million from Eurocopter, the French company set up an assembly facility in Mexico worth US$500 million, which will help Mexico to develop its aeronautical capabilities. During the forecast period, the country is also expected to give preference to arms exporters that provide technology transfers to offset equipment imports.

Key Highlights

  • During the review period, Mexican defense expenditure grew at a CAGR of 8.6% and registered US$6.09 billion in 2012. The persistent threat from drug cartels and active participation in peacekeeping missions stimulated expenditure during the review period, and these factors are expected to continue to drive defense expenditure throughout the forecast period. The expenditure on defense by Mexico is anticipated to increase at a CAGR of 9% and reach a value of US$9.55 billion by 2017. As a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP), the Mexican defense budget stood at 0.5% in 2012 and is expected to marginally increase to 0.61% of GDP by 2017. Key opportunities for equipment suppliers are expected in areas such as surveillance equipment, special operation helicopters, and maritime patrol aircraft.
  • In 2012, Mexican homeland security expenditure valued US$5.19 billion, and is expected to register a CAGR of 10% during the forecast period to reach US$8.36 billion in 2017. HLS expenditure is expected to be driven by drug trafficking, arms trafficking, and money laundering; in order to counter these threats, Mexico is expected invest in city-wide surveillance and monitoring systems, UAVs and aerostats, medium-lift helicopters, land-based fixed wing naval aircraft, aircraft with advanced electro-optical surveillance turrets, ground support infrastructure, and maritime radars.
  • During the review period, 74% of Mexico’s total defense imports were from Spain and the US. Aircraft and engines collectively accounted for 90% of the country’s total arms imports during the review period. As Mexico plans to increase its defense budget and procure more weapons to modernize its weapons arsenal, imports are expected to increase during the forecast period.

The Mexican Defense Industry – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence (www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com)

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.1.2. The government's fight against drug trafficking to drive defense expenditure in the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Revenue expenditure accounts for a majority of the Mexican defense budget
3.2.2. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected a marginal increase during the forecast period
3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.4. Mexico's capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.2.5. Mexico is expected to spend US$XX billion on revenue expenses over the forecast period
3.2.6. Personnel expenditure accounts for the majority of the revenue expenditure budget
3.2.7. The army accounts for the majority of the defense budget
3.2.8. Budget allocation for the army higher than the navy and the air force
3.2.9. Defense budget allocation for the air force expected to remain the lowest
3.2.10. Defense budget allocation for the navy expected to increase
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure is expected to increase in the forecast period
3.3.3. Arms trafficking, the drugs trade, and money laundering to drive the HLS market
3.3.4. Mexico considered at 'low risk' of terrorist attack
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Mexico's defense budget expected to register marginal growth in the forecast period
3.4.2. Mexico's military expenditure is limited compared with countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.4.3. Mexico allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense
3.4.4. Mexico has a moderate per-capita defense expenditure
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Increasing threat from the drug cartels will drive demand for surveillance equipment, helicopters, and naval aircraft
3.5.2. Demand for Maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) is expected to increase
3.5.3. Replacement of aging helicopters to provide excellent market opportunities
3.5.4. Increase in demand for special operation helicopters expected

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited domestic defense capabilities drives the country's defense imports
4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period
4.1.3. Spain and the US accounted for the XX% Mexico's defense imports during the review period
4.1.4. Ships, aircraft, and missiles are the most imported military hardware
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Mexico does not export arms due to an underdeveloped domestic arms industry

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
5.1.3. Barriers to entry: low
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to high
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to high

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Mexico has not disclosed any offset obligation
6.1.2. Mexico allows XX% FDI in defense industry
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Foreign OEMs prefer direct selling to enter the market
6.2.2. Defense collaborations provides good market entry opportunities
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency impedes the growth of Mexico's defense industry
6.3.2. Lack of domestic defense technological know-how acts as a deterrent to market entry

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Productos Mendoza: overview
7.2.2. Productos Mendoza: products
7.2.3. Aviabaltika de Mexico Company: overview
7.2.4. Aviabaltika de Mexico Company: products and services

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Female
8.1.2. Population - Male
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Business confidence index
8.2.2. Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency
8.2.3. Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars
8.2.4. Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP
8.2.5. Debt-Service Ratio
8.2.6. Deposit Interest Rate
8.2.7. Exports of goods and services, current prices
8.2.8. External debt as percentage of GDP (%)
8.2.9. Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.10. GDP at Purchasing Power Parity
8.2.11. GDP, Constant Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.12. GDP, Constant Prices (US$)
8.2.13. GDP, Current Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.14. GDP, Current Prices (US$)
8.2.15. General Government Final Consumption Expenditure
8.2.16. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices
8.2.17. Imports of goods and services
8.2.18. Inflation, average consumer prices
8.2.19. Interest Rate (Lending)
8.2.20. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Bn)
8.2.21. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billions)
8.2.22. Market Capitalization of Stock Exchange (US$ mn)
8.2.23. US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average)
8.2.24. US$- Exchange Rate (EoP)
8.2.25. Wholesale Price Index
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Crude Oil Distillation Capacity
8.3.2. Electricity Exports
8.3.3. Electricity Imports
8.3.4. Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.5. Fossil Fuels Proved Natural Gas Reserves
8.3.6. Fossil Fuels Proved Oil Gas Reserves
8.3.7. Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity
8.3.8. Natural Gas Consumption
8.3.9. Natural Gas Imports
8.3.10. Natural Gas Production
8.3.11.Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation
8.3.12.Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation
8.3.13.Net Hydroelectric Power Generation
8.3.14.Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.15.Petroleum Consumption
8.3.16.Petroleum Production
8.4.Minerals
8.4.1.Coal Consumption
8.4.2.Coal Production
8.5.Technology
8.5.1.Patents Granted
8.6.Social and Political Risk
8.6.1.Political Stability Index
8.6.2.Transparency Index

9 Appendix
9.1.About SDI
9.2.Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Mexican Defense Expenditure, 2008-2012
Table 2: Mexican Defense Expenditure, 2013-2017
Table 3: Mexican Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Table 4: Mexican Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Table 5: Mexican GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2008-2012
Table 6: Mexican GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2017
Table 7: Mexican Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2008-2012
Table 8: Mexican Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2017
Table 9: Mexican Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 10: Mexican Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 11: Mexican Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 12: Mexican Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 13: Mexican Revenue Expenditure Break-up (%) , 2008-2012
Table 14: Mexican Revenue Expenditure Break-up (%) , 2013-2017
Table 15: Mexican Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Table 16: Mexican Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2013-2017
Table 17: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 18: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 19: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 20: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 21: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 22: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 23: Mexican Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 24: Mexican Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 25: Mexican Homeland Security Budget Split (%), 2008-2012
Table 26: Mexican Homeland Security Budget Split (%), 2013-2017
Table 27: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2008-2012 vs. 2013-2017
Table 28: Productos Mendoza - Product Focus
Table 29: Aviabaltika de Mexico Company - Products and Services

List of Figures

Figure 1: Mexican Defense Expenditure, 2008-2012
Figure 2: Mexican Defense Expenditure, 2013-2017
Figure 3: Mexican Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Figure 4: Mexican Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Figure 5: Mexican GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2008-2012
Figure 6: Mexican GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2017
Figure 7: Mexican Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2008-2012
Figure 8: Mexican Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2017
Figure 9: Mexican Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 10: Mexican Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 11: Mexican Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 12: Mexican Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 13: Mexican Revenue Expenditure Break-up (%) , 2008-2012
Figure 14: Mexican Revenue Expenditure Break-up (%) , 2013-2017
Figure 15: Mexican Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Figure 16: Mexican Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2013-2017
Figure 17: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 18: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 19: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 20: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 21: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 22: Mexican Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 23: Mexican Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 24: Mexican Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 25: Mexican Homeland Security Budget Split (%), 2008-2012
Figure 26: Mexican Homeland Security Budget Split (%), 2013-2017
Figure 27: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2012
Figure 28: SDI Terrorism Index, 2012
Figure 29: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2008-2012 vs. 2013-2017
Figure 30: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2012 and 2017
Figure 31: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2012
Figure 32: Per-capita Defense Expenditure of the Largest Military Spenders in the World (US$), 2012
Figure 33: Mexican Defense Import Trend, 2007-2011 (TIV values)
Figure 34: Mexican Defense Imports by Country (%), 2007-2011
Figure 35: Mexican Defense Imports by Category (%), 2007-2011
Figure 36: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 37: Mexican Population - Female (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 38: Mexican Population - Male (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 39: Mexican Business Confidence Index, 2003-2011
Figure 40: Mexican Construction Output, Current Prices, (In MXN Billions), 2001-2010
Figure 41: Mexican Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars (In Billions), 2001-2010
Figure 42: Mexican Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2017
Figure 43: Mexican Debt-Service Ratio, 2001-2010
Figure 44: Mexican Deposit Interest Rate, 2001-2010
Figure 45: Mexican Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ Billion), 2001- 2010
Figure 46: Mexican External Debt as percentage of GDP (%), 2001-2010
Figure 47: Mexican Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 48: Mexican GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (US$ Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 49: Mexican GDP at Constant Prices (MXN Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 50: Mexican GDP at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 51: Mexican GDP at Current Prices (MXN Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 52: Mexican GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 53: Mexican General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 54: Mexican Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 55: Mexican Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 56: Mexican Inflation, average consumer prices, 2008-2017
Figure 57: Mexican Lending Interest rate, 2001-2010
Figure 58: Mexican Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (MXN Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 59: Mexican Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 60: Mexican Market Capitalization of Stock Exchange (US$ Million), 2001-2010
Figure 61: Mexican US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average), 2002-2011
Figure 62: Mexican US$- Exchange Rate (EoP), 2002-2011
Figure 63: Mexican Wholesale Price Index, 2000-2009
Figure 64: Mexican Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels Per Cal Day), 2000-2009
Figure 65: Mexican Electricity Exports Trend (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 66: Mexican Electricity Imports Trend (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 67: Mexican Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2000-2009
Figure 68: Mexican Fossil Fuels Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2002-2011
Figure 69: Mexican Fossil Fuels Proved Oil Gas Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2002-2011
Figure 70: Mexican Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2000-2009
Figure 71: Mexican Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001-2010
Figure 72: Mexican Natural Gas Imports (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001-2010
Figure 73: Mexican Natural Gas Production (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001-2010
Figure 74: Mexican Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 75: Mexican Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2001-2010
Figure 76: Mexican Net Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 77: Mexican Net Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 78: Mexican Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002-2011
Figure 79: Mexican Petroleum Production (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002-2011
Figure 80: Mexican Coal Consumption (Thousand Short Tons), 2001-2010
Figure 81: Mexican Coal Production (Thousand Short Tons), 2001-2010
Figure 82: Mexican Patents Granted, 2002-2011
Figure 83: Mexican Political Stability Index, 2002-2010
Figure 84: Mexican Transparency Index, 2002-2011

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