The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

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Date: 10-Aug-2018
No. of pages: 42
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"An increase in mobile data revenue and the number of fixed deployments will drive growth in the telecoms service revenue in Latin America during the forecast period."

Data will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth. Mobile operators will focus on data monetisation to fully utilise the improved bandwidth from their 4G investments. In the fixed segment, next-generation access (NGA) roll-outs will lead to some upselling, but affordability issues will limit their impact.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and six key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Region modelled


  • Latin America (LATAM)


Countries modelled individually


  • Argentina

  • Brazil

  • Chile

  • Colombia

  • Mexico

  • Peru


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Table of Contents:

8.Executive summary and recommendations
9.Mobile data services, fixed broadband and pay TV will drive the growth in telecoms retail revenue in Latin America during the forecast period
10.Telecoms retail revenue will grow across the region but at a slower rate than the rest of the economy
11.Geographical coverage: the 4G share of connections will be the lowest in Colombia and Peru, but these countries will have some of the highest NGA shares
12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15.Market context: economic recovery will continue across the region, but this will have a limited impact on the telecoms sector
16.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
17.Key drivers at a glance for each Latin American market
18.Market overview: mobile data and fixed broadband will continue to drive service revenue growth
19.Mobile: data consumption will grow, partly driven by an increase in the number of contract connections, resulting in a positive ARPU trend
20.Mobile: mobile ARPU in LATAM will remain largely constant, except in Argentina due to inflation and in Brazil due to a shift from prepaid to contract connections
21.Mobile: connectivity growth will be limited, but ARPU will be positively affected by an increase in the contract share of connections
22.Fixed: operators’ fibre and cable roll-out plans will have a strong positive effect on NGA adoption across the region
23.Fixed: the growth in fixed broadband penetration will slow down throughout the forecast period due to limited service affordability
24.Fixed: fixed revenue will slowly decline from 2020 onwards due to a decrease in fixed voice revenue, despite revenue growth in FBB and business services
25.Business services: new services will drive revenue growth but dedicated business solutions will remain an important source of revenue
26.IoT: there will be significant growth in IoT connectivity, but IoT will contribute only a small amount to the total operator revenue
27.Pay TV: the popularity of local TV content and sports, particularly football, will prevent a substantial decline in pay-TV prices
28.Individual country forecasts
29.Argentina: double-digit inflation will result in artificially high revenue growth in both fixed and mobile segments
30.Argentina: on top of inflation, the growth in mobile data consumption and NGA technology usage will have a positive impact on revenue
31.Argentina: regulatory changes, new spectrum availability and market consolidation have shaken up the fixed, mobile and pay-TV markets
32.Argentina: forecast changes
33.Brazil: the total telecoms revenue will increase slightly as revenue growth in fixed broadband and mobile data will offset the loss of fixed voice revenue
34.Brazil: mobile ARPU will increase by nearly 20% between 2017 and 2023, driven by a shift from prepaid to contract, as well as strong 4G take-up
35.Brazil: the growth in the number of postpaid mobile and NGA connections will lead to a slow but steady increase in telecom revenue
36.Brazil: forecast changes
37.Chile: revenue growth in FBB and business services will decrease meaning that the total telecoms revenue will stay stable at just below CLP3.9 trillion
38.Chile: fixed broadband ARPU will increase thanks to growth in NGA connectivity, but this will be counterbalanced by a fall in fixed voice ARPU
39.Chile: the total telecoms revenue will be negatively affected by competition in mobile services and by declining voice services revenue
40.Chile: forecast changes
41.Colombia: revenue growth is set to slow down considerably after 2017 as fixed broadband growth slows and business revenue starts to decline
42.Colombia: FBB ASPU will grow by 11% during the forecast period as the number of cable connections grows and fibre becomes more widespread
43.Colombia: mobile operators are rolling out LTE-A networks in order to increase 4G take-up
44.Colombia: forecast changes
45.Mexico: the number of mobile connections is steadily increasing, and the number of IoT connections is expected to grow to 28.9 million by 2023
46.Mexico: mobile data traffic is set to increase six-fold from 2017 to 2023, as 4G connections start to dominate and 5G is launched
47.Mexico: the number of connections for newer mobile technologies will be affected by changes in spectrum allocation
48.Mexico: forecast changes
49.Peru: the negative CAGR for mobile broadband and fixed voice revenue is balanced by revenue growth for handset and fixed broadband
50.Peru: the number of 4G connections will grow with a CAGR of 19% between 2017 and 2023; the contract share of connections will remain stable
51.Peru: regulatory sanctions should make the mobile market more consumer friendly
Peru: forecast changes
53.Methodology
54.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
55.Examples of forecast input drivers
56.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
57.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
58.About the author and Analysys Mason
59.About the author
60.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
61.Research from Analysys Mason
62.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Growth in both telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2017–2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2017 and 20231
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, Latin America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2013–2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2013–2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Latin America, 2013–2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2014–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Latin America, 2014–2023
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2013–2023
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013–2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2013–2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013–2023
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2013–2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2013–2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2013–2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2013–2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2013–2023
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2013–2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2013–2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2013–2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2013–2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2013–2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2013–2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2013–2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2013–2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2013–2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2013–2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2013–2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2013–2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2013–2023
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2013–2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2013–2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2013–2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2013–2023
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2013–2023
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2013–2023
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013–2023
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2013–2023
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013–2023
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2013–2023
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2013–2023
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2013–2023
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2013–2023
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2013–2023
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2013–2023
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2013–2023
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2013–2023
Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2013–2023
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2013–2023
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2013–2023
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2013–2023
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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