The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

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Date: 26-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 53
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"Roll-out of next-generation access broadband will be the key theme over the next 5 years in the Latin America broadband market."

Total telecoms revenue will grow in major Latin America markets, as there is significant room for growth in terms of smartphone and 4G penetration on the mobile side and high-speed broadband on the fixed side. Sizeable operator investments in both mobile and fixed infrastructure and expected economic growth in most markets will further improve affordability of advanced telecoms services.

This report and associated data annex provide:

- a 5-year forecast of 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for Latin America, as a whole and 7 key countries
- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
- an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
- a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled

- Latin America

Countries modelled individually

- Argentina
- Brazil
- Chile
- Colombia
- Mexico
- Peru
- Venezuela

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

- Anguilla
- Antigua and Barbuda
- Netherlands Antilles
- Aruba
- Bahamas
- Barbados
- Belize
- Bermuda
- Bolivia
- Cayman Islands
- Costa Rica
- Cuba
- Dominica
- Dominican Republic
- Ecuador
- El Salvador
- French Guiana
- Grenada
- Guadeloupe
- Guatemala
- Guyana
- Haiti
- Honduras
- Jamaica
- Martinique
- Monsterrat
- Nicaragua
- Panama
- Paraguay
- Puerto Rico
- St Kitts and Nevis
- St Lucia
- St Vincent and the Grenadines
- Suriname
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Uruguay
- British Virgin Islands
- US Virgin Islands

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

- Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
- Prepaid, contract
- 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
- Smartphone,
- non-smartphone

Fixed

- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
- Narrowband voice, VoBB
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

- Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

- Service, retail
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
- Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

- Service, retail
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

- SIMs, handset
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset voice, data

The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

Table of Contents

- Executive summary
- Total retail revenue growth will accelerate, as regulatory impact on revenue dissipates and data service adoption grows
- Handset data and fixed broadband will be the main growth drivers
- Revenue will grow in most LATAM markets over the forecast period
- Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
- Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
- Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
- Geographical coverage: The 7 largest markets by revenue in the region modelled individually
- Market context: Economic struggles are affecting a number of markets, while foreign exchange movements mask continued growth in others
- Revenue and ARPU: Almost two thirds of total mobile retail revenue will come from data in 2021
- Mobile penetration: Mexico and Peru will be the only two major markets with strong mobile user base growth
- Mobile connections: 3G will continue to be the leading technology in LATAM through 2021
- Smartphones and LTE: Device affordability will be key in driving smartphone penetration
- Mobile broadband: Growth in connected tablets will mitigate the decline of large-screen mobile broadband devices
- Mobile ARPU: User base rationalisation and 4G take-up will sustain mobile ARPU across the region
- Data and revenue by generation: 3G will still be the main source of mobile service revenue in LATAM in 2021
- Fixed services: IPTV will remain a niche product, due to a restrictive regulatory environment in Argentina and Mexico
- Fixed broadband: Chile became the leader in fixed broadband penetration in 2015 and will remain so throughout the forecast period
- Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market
- Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
- Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
- Individual country forecasts
- Argentina: Inflation will drive revenue growth in nominal terms
- Argentina –mobile: Grupo Clarin’s acquisition of Nextel should intensify competition in an already contested market
- Argentina –fixed: Growth in fixed broadband has been sluggish, and concentrated mainly in cable
- Brazil: Strong growth in handset data revenue should compensate for declining mobile voice revenue
- Brazil –mobile: User base has declined sharply by nearly 25 million, as MTR cuts limit the usefulness of owning multiple SIMs
- Brazil –fixed: Broadband growth slowed, despite a rapidly increasing cable user base
- Chile: Short-term revenue growth will be driven by handset data and fixed broadband

- Chile –mobile: ARPU is being sustained by 4G take-up and low-value prepaid subscription losses
- Chile –fixed: Speed upgrades continue to drive broadband ASPU up
- Colombia: MTR cuts will have a significant effect on mobile revenue
- Colombia –mobile: Alternative 4G operators grew at the expense of MVNOs in 2015
- Colombia –fixed: Improvements in broadband affordability will drive user base growth
- Mexico: Revenue will grow, as intensifying competition in the mobile market will drive user base growth and data spending
- Mexico –mobile: Telcel’s dominance is being challenged by both AT&T and continued regulatory measures
- Mexico –fixed: The fixed broadband market has increased in 2015 and growth should continue through the forecast period

- Peru: Revenue growth will be driven by increasing mobile data usage and fixed broadband adoption
- Peru –mobile: Relatively low mobile penetration and data usage leave a lot of potential for growth
- Peru –fixed: Broadband ASPU has started to fall to more affordable levels
- About the authors and Analysys Mason
- About the authors
- Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
- Research from Analysys Mason
- Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2015–2021
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Latin America, 2015–2021
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Latin America, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the 7 countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2015–2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2015–2021
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G/5G’s share of connections, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2011–2021
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016–2021), by country, Latin America
Figure 20: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2011–2021
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2015–2021
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2015–2021
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina, 2011–2021
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2011–2021
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2011–2021
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2011–2021
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2011–2021
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2015–2021
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2015–2021
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2011–2021
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2011–2021
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2011–2021
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2011–2021
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2011–2021
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2015–2021
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2015–2021
Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2011–2021
Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2011–2021
Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2011–2021
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2011–2021
Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2011–2021
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2015–2021
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2015–2021
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2011–2021
Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2011–20211
Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2011–2021
Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2011–2021
Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2011–2021
Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2015–2021
Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2015–2021
Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2011–2021
Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2011–20211
Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2011–2021
Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2011–2021
Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2011–2021
Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2015–2021
Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2015–2021
Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2011–2021
Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2011–20211
Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2011–2021
Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2011–2021
Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru

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