The IoT forecast: connections, revenue and technology trends 2018–2027
Table of Contents
7.Worldwide trends
Worldwide: the number of IoT connections will grow strongly over the forecast period, driven by an increase in LPWA connectivity
Worldwide: significant uncertainty regarding LPWA adoption prevails in some sectors
Worldwide: the largest number of 5G IoT connections will come from emerging Asia–Pacific due to the dominance of China
Worldwide: applications will generate most of the IoT revenue because specialist assets and skills are required to deliver them to enterprises
Worldwide: revenue from LPWA connectivity will be low and subject to intense pricing pressure as new connectivity suppliers enter the market
Worldwide: the largest share of revenue will come from the automotive sector, despite large numbers of LPWA connections from elsewhere
Worldwide: China will continue to be the largest single IoT market in 2027
Western Europe
Western Europe: LoRa operators took an early lead in the western European LPWA market in terms of connection numbers, but NB-IoT will dominate by 2027
Western Europe: the automotive sector’s share of IoT revenue will decline during the forecast period because LPWA connectivity will spur growth in new sectors
Central and Eastern Europe
Central and Eastern Europe: operators are deploying NB-IoT across the region and are trialling new services based on this technology
Central and Eastern Europe: LPWA networks in the region are expanding, and LPWA technology will start to contribute significantly to revenue growth
21.Middle East and North Africa
22.Middle East and North Africa: LPWA network deployment has been slower than in other developed regions; there are currently only three commercial networks
Middle East and North Africa: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow to over USD6.9 billion; 12% of this will come from connectivity
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa dominated the region’s IoT market in 2018, and generated 67% of all regional connections
Sub-Saharan Africa: new entrants will compete fiercely for connectivity contracts, and connectivity ARPC will probably decline as a result
Emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China
Emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China: 2G networks currently support the majority of IoT connections, but this technology will be superseded by NB-IoT by 2027
Emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China: few operators in the region are well-positioned to capture a large share of IoT revenue beyond connectivity
China
China: China will be the largest 5G IoT market in the world by 2027 in terms of connections; almost 50% of all 5G IoT connections will come from China by 2027
China: Chinese operators are investing significantly to develop applications and sector-specific services
Developed Asia–Pacific
Developed Asia–Pacific: operators in the region have been slow to exploit the IoT opportunity, but investment in IoT is growing
Developed Asia–Pacific: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow to 27.6 billion in 2027, and regional operators will increase their investments to take a larger share
36.North America
North America: the USA is one of the most successful IoT markets; the number of IoT connections will grow to 947 million by 2027
North America: the region will generate the highest IoT revenue of all regions worldwide in 2027 (USD51 billion)
Latin America
Latin America: Brazil is the largest IoT market in the region; it had over 20 million connections in 2018 and accounted for 54% of all regional IoT connections
Latin America: IoT connectivity revenue will grow to USD1.6 billion across the region, 40% of which will come from LPWA connectivity in 2027
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Comparison of the 2018 forecast with the new 2019 forecast
Definitions [1]
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Definitions [3]
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About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
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Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: IoT connections by network type, worldwide, 2027
Figure 2: Total IoT connections by network type, 2015–2027
Figure 3: Existing, emerging and potential LPWA applications
Figure 4: 5G IoT connections by region, 2020–2027
Figure 5: Revenue by type and blended ARPC, worldwide, 2015–2027
Figure 6: Cellular value chain revenue, worldwide, 2027
Figure 7: LPWA value chain revenue, worldwide, 2027
Figure 8: Cellular and LPWA connectivity revenue and ARPU, 2015–2027
Figure 9: Connections share by sector, worldwide, 2015–2027
Figure 10: Connectivity revenue share by sector, worldwide, 2015–2027
Figure 11: Total IoT connections and total value chain revenue by region, 2027
Figure 12: Share of IoT connections by network type, WE, 2018 and 2027
Figure 13: Connections by sector, WE, 2015 and 2027
Figure 14: 5G connections by sector, WE, 2020–2027
Figure 15: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, WE, 2015–2027
Figure 16: Connectivity revenue share by sector, WE, 2015–2027
Figure 17: Share of IoT connections by network type, CEE, 2018 and 2027
Figure 18: Connections by sector, CEE, 2015 and 2027
Figure 19: Share of IoT connections by sector, CEE, 2015–2027
Figure 20: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, CEE, 2015–2027
Figure 21: Connectivity revenue share by sector, CEE, 2015–2027
Figure 22: Share of IoT connections by network type, MENA, 2018 and 2027
Figure 23: Connections by sector, MENA, 2015 and 2027
Figure 24: Share of IoT connections by sector, MENA, 2015–2027
Figure 25: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, MENA, 2015–2027
Figure 26: Connectivity revenue share by sector, MENA, 2015–2027
Figure 27: Share of IoT connections by network type, SSA, 2018 and 2027
Figure 28: Connections by sector, SSA, 2015 and 2027
Figure 29: IoT connections by network type, South Africa, 2015–2027
Figure 30: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, SSA, 2015–2027
Figure 31: Split of IoT revenue between South Africa and the rest of SSA, 2027
Figure 32: Share of IoT connections by network type, EMAP (excluding China), 2018 and 2027
Figure 33: Connections by sector, EMAP (excluding China), 2015 and 2027
Figure 34: IoT connections by network type, Indonesia, 2015–2027
Figure 35: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, EMAP (excluding China), 2015–2027
Figure 36: Connectivity revenue share by sector, EMAP (excluding China), 2015–2027
Figure 37: Share of IoT connections by network type, China, 2018 and 2027
Figure 38: Connections by sector, China, 2015 and 2027
Figure 39: 5G connections by sector, China, 2020–2027
Figure 40: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, China, 2015–2027
Figure 41: Connectivity revenue share by sector, China, 2015–2027
Figure 42: Share of IoT connections by network type, DVAP, 2018 and 2027
Figure 43: Connections by sector, DVAP, 2015 and 2027
Figure 44: Share of IoT connections by sector, DVAP, 2015–2027
Figure 45: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, DVAP, 2015–2027
Figure 46: Connectivity revenue share by sector, DVAP, 2015–2027
Figure 47: Share of IoT connections by network type, NA, 2018 and 2027
Figure 48: Connections by sector, NA, 2015 and 2027
Figure 49: 5G connections by sector, USA, 2020–2027
Figure 50: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, NA, 2015–2027
Figure 51: Connectivity revenue share by sector, NA, 2015–2027
Figure 52: Share of IoT connections by network type, LATAM, 2018 and 2027
Figure 53: Connections by sector, LATAM, 2015 and 2027
Figure 54: IoT connections by sector, Brazil, 2015–2027
Figure 55: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, LATAM, 2015–2027
Figure 56: Connectivity revenue share by sector, Brazil, 2015–2027
Figure 57: Previous IoT connections forecast versus new IoT connections forecast, worldwide, 2015–2026
Figure 58: Previous total value chain revenue forecast versus new total value chain revenue forecast, worldwide, 2015–2026
Figure 59: Previous connectivity revenue forecast versus new connectivity revenue forecast, worldwide, 2015–2026
Figure 60: Network definitions
Figure 61: Other definitions
Figure 62a: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62b: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62c: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62d: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62e: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
Figure 62f: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
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