The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

The Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary
9.Worldwide telecoms service revenue will increase to USD1668 billion, driven by 4G mobile services and next-generation fixed broadband
10.Mobile handset data will continue to boost revenue, driven by the increasing availability of 4G networks
11.Developing regions will have highest revenue growth, but NA will continue to be largest retail revenue contributor worldwide by 2020
12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14.Global forecasts and cross-regional comparison
15.Geographical coverage: 4G penetration will exceed 70% and household broadband penetration will surpass 85% in DVAP, NA and WE by 2020
16.Market context: Service take-up is driven by high GDP per capita in NA, WE and DVAP, and by affordability and accessibility in emerging regions
17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will account for 44% of total service revenue in 2020
18.Mobile penetration: EMAP, DVAP and SSA will drive mobile SIM penetration worldwide to 108% by 2020, up from 92% in 2014
19.Mobile connections: 4G’s share of connections will exceed 3G’s share by 2020, driven by extensive network roll-out in developed regions
20.Smartphones and LTE: LTE’s share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), and SSA will lag behind significantly (5%)
21.Mobile ARPU: Intense competition in mature regions, OTT services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on ARPU
22.Fixed services: FTTH/B connections will increase to 425 million, accounting for 44% of total fixed broadband connections in 2020
23.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will increase from 39% to 48% because of GDP per capita growth and network roll-out
24.Key drivers at a glance for each region
25.Individual regional forecasts
26.CEE: Telecoms revenue will decline in the forecast period due to competitive pressure on mobile and fixed voice revenue
27.CEE–mobile: Mobile revenue will drop to USD 2.4 million as handset data revenue will not fully offset voice and SMS losses
28.CEE– fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.9% as a result of increasing service take-up
29.DVAP: Total retail revenue will grow at a 1% CAGR, driven by mobile handset data usage and the wide availability of fibre
30.DVAP–mobile: Increasing smartphone penetration and high 4G availability will drive handset data ARPU up to USD23 in 2020
31.DVAP– fixed: The increase of broadband, IPTV and business network services revenue will offset fixed voice revenue losses
32.EMAP: Service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 3.1% by 2020 driven by mobile handset data and broadband take-up
33.EMAP–mobile: Increasing 3G and 4G penetration contributes to mobile handset data revenue growth at a CAGR of 11.8%
34.EMAP– fixed: Fixed broadband and IPTV revenue growth at a CAGR of 7% will be driven by increasing service take-up
35.LATAM: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will stimulate steady revenue growth to USD140 billion by 2020
36.LATAM–mobile: 4G service take-up will accelerate and boost smartphone penetration and handset revenue growth
37.LATAM– fixed: Fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow, driven by an increase in cable and DSL connections
38.MENA: Total retail revenue will grow at a stable pace to USD85 billion, of which mobile services will account for 69%
39.MENA–mobile: Mobile handset data revenue will grow by USD5.6 billion between 2014 and 2020, a CAGR of 8.7%
40.MENA– fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow at a 4.9% CAGR to USD11.3 billion, driven by roll-out plans in GCC countries
41.NA: Total telecoms service revenue will decline slowly at a
CAGR of –0.2%, after a USD437 billion peak in 2015–2016
42.NA–mobile: 4G technology will dominate mobile market with 92% of 4G SIMs and will drive up handset data revenue
43.NA– fixed: Fibre broadband penetration will grow because the services will outdo cable in terms of quality and speed
44.SSA: Total service revenue will reach USD60 billion in 2020, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data
45.SSA–mobile: Revenue and penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services
46.SSA–mobile: Revenue and penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services
47.WE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline slowly because of market maturity, price competition and OTT services
48.WE–mobile: ARPU will decline, offset in part by mobile data service revenue and consolidations
49.WE– fixed: Pressure on the quality of service will drive the market competition in fixed broadband
50.About the authors and Analysys Mason
51.About the authors
52.About Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2014–2020
Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions, worldwide
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by region, worldwide, 2020
Figure 6: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2014
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2014–2020
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2014–2020
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by region, worldwide, 2015–2020
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2010–2020
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2014–2020
Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2014–2020
Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, CEE, 2010–2020
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, CEE, 2010–2020
Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE
Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2010–2020
Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2010–2020
Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2010–2020
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2014–2020
Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2014–2020
Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, DVAP, 2010–2020
Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, DVAP, 2010–2020
Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2010–2020
Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2010–2020
Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2010–2020
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, EMAP, 2014–2020
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2014–2020
Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, EMAP, 2010–2020
Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, EMAP, 2010–2020
Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2010–2020
Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2010–2020
Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2010–2020
Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, LATAM, 2014–2020
Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2014–2020
Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, LATAM, 2010–2020
Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, LATAM, 2010–20201
Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2010–2020
Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2010–2020
Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2010–2020
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, MENA, 2014–2020
Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2014–2020
Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, MENA, 2010–2020
Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, MENA, 2010–2020
Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA
Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2010–2020
Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2010–2020
Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA
Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), NA, 2010–2020
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, NA, 2014–2020
Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2014–2020
Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, NA, 2010–2020
Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, NA, 2010–2020
Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA
Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2010–2020
Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2010–2020
Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA
Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2010–2020
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, SSA, 2014–2020
Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2014–2020
Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, SSA, 2010–2020
Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, SSA, 2010–2020
Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, SSA
Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, SSA, 2010–2020
Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, SSA, 2010–2020
Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, SSA
Figure 80: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), WE, 2010–2020
Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, WE, 2014–2020
Figure 82: Connections by type, and growth rates, WE, 2014–2020
Figure 83: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, WE, 2010–2020
Figure 84: Mobile ARPU by type, WE, 2010–2020
Figure 85: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, WE
Figure 86: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2010–2020
Figure 87: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2010–2020
Figure 88: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE

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