The Developed Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

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Date: 13-Aug-2019
No. of pages: 46
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"DVAP will continue to lead in terms of the adoption of new and emerging technologies during the forecast period, but operators will struggle to monetise their investments amid saturated markets."

Operators in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) will look beyond connectivity enhancements in order to gain a competitive advantage in data-saturated consumer segments and will achieve strong revenue growth from their forays into the new verticals that are opened by IoT and 5G. In this report, we examine key trends and drivers, and provide comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for seven individually modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the DVAP region as a whole and for seven key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Region modelled


  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)


Countries modelled individually


  • Australia

  • Hong Kong

  • Japan

  • New Zealand

  • Singapore

  • South Korea

  • Taiwan


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Developed Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Table of Contents:

8.Executive summary and recommendations
The total telecoms retail revenue will decline very slightly during the forecast period
Growth in retail revenue will be limited to New Zealand and South Korea only
Geographical coverage: the number of NGA connections in Australia and New Zealand will grow towards that in the rest of the region during the forecast period
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: robust GDP per capita growth in DVAP will partially mitigate service saturation, thereby allowing operators to upsell premium services
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia–Pacific market
Market overview: fixed broadband, IoT and business services revenue will grow, but not by enough to offset revenue declines in legacy services
Mobile: the take-up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid thanks to favourable demand-side conditions
Mobile: ARPU will gradually stabilise during the forecast period
Mobile: commercial 5G launches and the ongoing expansion of 5G networks will be the main focus areas for operators
Fixed: household fixed broadband data consumption will undergo accelerating growth
Fixed: growth in the number of FBB connections will be strongest in Australia and New Zealand
24.Fixed: the fixed market in DVAP is very competitive, and operators will focus on consumer experience and churn reduction
Business services: operators will successfully capture a share of revenue from IT services, despite stiff competition from larger players
IoT: revenue from IoT will represent 15% of the total telecoms revenue by the end of the forecast period
Pay TV: revenue from operator OTT and IPTV will grow strongly, and will offset declines in traditional pay-TV service revenue
Individual country forecasts
Australia: mobile handset revenue will grow, driven by increased smartphone adoption and data consumption
Australia: the number of NGA connections will double over the forecast period
Australia: competition in both the fixed and mobile market segments will intensify, resulting in a slight decline in the total telecoms revenue by 2023
Australia: forecast changes
Hong Kong: mobile broadband revenue will return to growth following the launch of 5G services
Hong Kong: mobile and fixed broadband ASPU will stabilise in the latter half of the forecast period
Hong Kong: competition in the value segment will intensify; incumbent operators will respond by increasing tariffs for premium customers
Hong Kong: forecast changes
Japan: the total telecoms service revenue will decline, mainly due to increasing competition in mobile segment
Japan: the ongoing take-up of FTTP/B will drive broadband revenue growth during the forecast period
39.Japan: mobile revenue will decrease due to falling mobile prices, while FTTP/B service take-up will help to maintain fixed segment revenue growth
Japan: forecast changes
New Zealand: the total telecoms service revenue will increase at a slow rate due to high competition in both the mobile and fixed markets
New Zealand: FTTP/B and BFWA will be the two most-widespread technologies in the fixed broadband market by 2024
New Zealand: mobile customers will continue to migrate from prepaid to postpaid plans; competition in the FBB market will remain intense
New Zealand: forecast changes
Singapore: revenue will decline in both the fixed and mobile segments, which are highly saturated, even by regional standards
Singapore: fibre will become fully ubiquitous by 2019
Singapore: the mobile market has been strongly affected by the entry of a fourth MNO
Singapore: forecast changes
South Korea: the total telecoms service revenue will increase modestly, driven by growing mobile and fixed broadband revenue
South Korea: 5G services for consumers were launched in April 2019
South Korea: the launch of 5G mobile plans will help to reduce price pressure; FBB revenue will grow due to the migration towards gigabit offers
South Korea: forecast changes
Taiwan: the total telecoms revenue will gradually stabilise over the forecast period
Taiwan: FTTP/B will overtake DSL as the predominant access technology by 2023
55.Taiwan: MNOs will struggle to monetise the rapid increase in data consumption; fixed broadband penetration will resume its growth
Taiwan: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2018 and 20241
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 5: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in developed Asia–Pacific, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, developed Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, developed Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Australia (AUD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Australia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Australia, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Australia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Australia, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Australia (AUD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Australia (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Australia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Australia, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Hong Kong (HKD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Hong Kong, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Hong Kong, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Hong Kong (HKD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Hong Kong (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Hong Kong (million), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Japan (JPY trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Japan (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Japan, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Japan (million), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Japan, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Japan (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Japan (million), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Japan, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, New Zealand (NZD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, New Zealand, 2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, New Zealand, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, New Zealand (NZD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, New Zealand (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, New Zealand (million), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, New Zealand, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Singapore (SGD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Singapore (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Singapore, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Singapore (million), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Singapore, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Singapore (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Singapore (million), 2014–2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2014–2024
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Korea (KRW trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, South Korea (million), 2014–2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Korea, 2014–2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, South Korea (million), 2014–2024
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Korea, 2014–2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Korea (SKW per month), 2014–2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Korea (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, South Korea (million), 2014–2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2014–2024
Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Taiwan (TWD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2014–2024
Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Taiwan, 2014–2024
Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2014–2024
Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Taiwan, 2014–2024
Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Taiwan (TWD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Taiwan (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Taiwan (million), 2014–2024
Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2014–2024
Figure 90a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 90b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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