The Communication services in Central and Eastern Europe: trends and forecasts 2017-2022

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Date: 09-Jan-2018
No. of pages: 15
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"Penetration of OTT communication messaging services is relatively low in CEE compared to that in other regions, but we anticipate growth; over 88% of smartphone users in this region will be regular OTT app users by 2022."

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), including country views for the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:


  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS services

  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives

  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging

  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops

  • data provided for the region as a whole and for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine

  • individual profiles for the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.


Regions

Regions covered in this report:


  • Worldwide

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

  • the Czech Republic

  • Poland

  • Russia

  • Turkey


Forecast results provided in the data annex:


  • Worldwide

  • CEE region

  • Bulgaria

  • Croatia

  • Estonia

  • Hungary

  • Latvia

  • Lithuania

  • Montenegro

  • Romania

  • Serbia

  • Slovakia

  • Slovenia

  • Ukraine

  • Rest of CEE region


Key metrics


  • Non-operator/OTT services

  • Voice and messaging

  • Active users by device type

  • Outgoing traffic by device type

  • Operator traditional services

  • Handsets

  • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS

  • Outgoing traffic

  • Operator IP-based services

  • Active users by service type:

  • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging

  • Outgoing traffic by service type

  • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging

  • Retail revenue

  • voice and messaging

  • average spend per user

The Communication services in Central and Eastern Europe: trends and forecasts 2017-2022

Table of Contents:

5.Executive summary
6.Executive summary
7.Worldwide trends
8.Worldwide: IP messaging traffic accounted for more than eight times the volume of SMS traffic in 2016
9.Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be used by 75% of the global population by 2022
10.Worldwide: Facebook is adopting a similar platform proposition
to the one pioneered in Asian countries by LINE and WeChat
11.Worldwide: The smartphone will continue to be the dominant communication device
12.Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
13.Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services – nearly 3.6 billion subscribers are expected by 2022
14.Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
15.Worldwide: Google’s involvement has boosted Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
16.Regional trends
17.Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
18.Central and Eastern Europe: VoIP has yet to gain significant traction
19.Country-level trends
20.Czech Republic: Operators early moves in IP voice services are aiming to secure future voice revenue
21.Poland: OTT services are not yet a serious substitute for operators’ communication services
22.Russia: OTT apps are taking over the messaging market; operators have proactively invested in IP based voice services
23.Turkey: WhatsApp has captured the large youth market, but operators are responding with their own initiatives
24.Forecast methodology and assumptions
25.Forecast outputs and definitions
26.Forecast methodology
27.About the authors and Analysys Mason
28.About the authors
29.About Analysys Mason
30.Research from Analysys Mason
31.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011–2022
Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011–2022
Figure 3: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2011–2016
Figure 4: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 5: OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 6: OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 8: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2016–2022
Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2016–2022
Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015–2022
Figure 11: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2011–2022
Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011–2022
Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011–2022
Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, Czech Republic, 2011–2022
Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Poland, 2011–2022
Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, Russia, 2011–2022
Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, Turkey, 2011–2022
Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report

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