The Chilean Defense Industry – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

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Date:1-Nov-2012
No. of pages: 108
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Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the Chilean defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?

The Chilean defense Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain a market share in the Chilean defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

With an estimated market value of US$2.5 billion in 2012, Chile was one of the largest defense markets in Latin America; however, defense expenditure declined steeply in 2012 due to transfer of Carabineros de Chile and Investigations Police of Chile to the Ministry of Interior and Public Security. Furthermore, due to an aggressive modernization strategy, border disputes, and persistent threats from drug traffickers, its defense expenditure is expected to grow over the forecast period and to reach US$4 billion by 2017. With the removal of heavy funding from the Copper Reserve Law for defense from 2012 onwards, the country’s economic growth is expected to drive the size of the Chilean defense industry. Capital expenditure will see a marginal increase due to the country’s heavy procurement pattern during the review period, and the majority of the expenditure will be allocated tithe army and navy. The Chilean defense industry is expected to experience a high growth rate over the forecast period, making it one of the fastest-growing defense markets in the world over the next five years.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

Chile is a narrow strip of land between the Andes Mountains on the east and the Pacific Ocean to the west, and it shares land borders with Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia; due to its long narrow shape, the country has border disputes with many countries. Growing relations with the US are expected to lead the improvements in the modernization of the armed forces. Over the forecast period, Chilean defense expenditure is expected to be driven by border disputes and modernization programs.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?

The Chilean Defense Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key features and Benefits

  • The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
  • The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Chilean defense industry.
  • The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
  • The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
  • The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Chile. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

  • The Chilean domestic defense industry is still in its nascent stage, and the country relies on imports from various countries to fulfill its weapons procurement needs. Chilean defense imports by volume ranked thirteenth in the world during 2005–2009, and Chile’s largest import trading partners are currently the US, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands. The US has emerged as the main import trading partner with a substantial increase in share, from 16% during 2006–2010 to 30% in 2010 alone. Aircraft and ships constituted the majority of Chilean imports during 2005–2010, followed by armored vehicles and missiles.
  • The Chilean Copper Reserve Law (CRL), initially imposed in 1958 as a 15% tax on mining profits, changed to a 10% tax on total sales from the state-run copper exporter Codelco in 1973;this law has resulted in the infusion of a large amount of cash into the Chilean armed forces, facilitating large-scale defense procurement. In 2011, the new law replaced CRL funds to Economic and Social Stabilization Fund (ESSF), resulting in a decrement in the defense budget for 2012. An initiative in 2010 included a contingency fund to provide further resources in exceptional circumstances, such as the major reconstruction program following the devastating earthquake of February 2010, and this development has been the cause for much debate, with both sides finding support.

Key Highlights

  •  The Chilean defense industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.84% over the forecast period, from an estimated US$2.7 billion in 2013 to US$4 billion in 2017, after the separation of the departments of Carabineros de Chile and Investigations Police of Chile from the Ministry of Defense in 2012. Border disputes and military modernization initiatives will drive growth in defense expenditure during the forecast period. Due to legislature changes, the benefit from the Copper Reserve Law will stop during the forecast period; through the Copper Reserve Law, 10% of state-owned copper producer Codelco’s annual revenues were transferred in equal proportion to the army, navy, and air force for arms procurement.
  •  The country has hosted a biennial defense exhibition since 1998, providing investors an opportunity to access the country’s defense market. The Chilean Ministry of Defense (MoD) also encourages joint ventures and technology-sharing agreements to enable domestic firms to enhance their capabilities and enhance diplomatic relations between the countries. Examples of these collaborations include the US-Chile agreement on sharing military technical data, the Declaration of Intent signed by Brazil and Chile to jointly develop the KC-390 military transport aircraft, and the joint venture between the Chilean military and BAE Systems to build the 160mm Rayo Rocket project.
  •  As a percentage of GDP, Chilean defense expenditure stood at an average of 1.48% during the review period. In 2012, the defense expenditure as percentage of GDP is expected to be 0.92% due to the transfer of Carabineros de Chile and Investigations Police of Chile to the Ministry of Interior and Public Security (MoIPS) in 2011. During the forecast period, the defense expenditure is expected to increase and as a percentage of GDP it is anticipated to reach 1.04% by 2017.

The Chilean Defense Industry – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Chilean defense expenditure is expected to register growth over the forecast period
3.1.2. Border disputes and military modernization to drive defense expenditure
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocations
3.2.1. Revenue expenditure account for majority of the Chilean defense budget
3.2.2. Defense spending as percentage of GDP expected to increase over the forecast period
3.2.3. Army and navy expenditure account for the majority of the Chilean defense budget
3.2.4. Highest budget allocation to land forces compared to other armed forces
3.2.5. Capital Expenditure in navy spending will increase in forecast period
3.2.6. Other defense expenditures to continue growing over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to grow over the forecast period
3.3.2. Carabineros de Chile accounted for majority of homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Drug trafficking and threat from Mapuche community to drive homeland security budget
3.3.4. The Chile considered at ‘some risk’ of terrorist attack
3.3.5. The Chile experienced low terror activity during the review period
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Chilean defense budget expected to register consistent growth over the forecast period
3.4.2. Chilean military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.4.3. The country allocates a significant percentage of GDP towards defense expenditure
3.4.4. Chile ranked eighteenth among top arms importing countries for 2007–2011
3.4.5. Chilean arms exports meager compared to top arms exporting countries for 2007–2011
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Peacekeeping missions and joint trainings to drive modernization of weapons
3.5.2. Demand for fighter aircraft to increase
3.5.3. The need to protect a long coastline will drive demand for naval vessels
3.5.4. Increased demand for military equipment to counter irregular warfare is expected
3.5.5. Heavy dependence on international trade through the sea route to drive demand for AV-8B Harriers
3.5.6. Vulnerability to natural disasters and sea crime expected to generate demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
3.5.7. Threat of asymmetric warfare to fuel demand for light attack and reconnaissance aircraft

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense import maintain large size during the review period
4.1.2. Germany and Netherlands account for the majority of the Chilean defense imports
4.1.3. Aircraft, ships, and armored vehicles are the largest imported military hardware

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: low
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: medium

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Offset policy aids the development of the domestic defense industry
6.1.2. Foreign direct investment in the defense sector is permitted without any complications
6.1.3. Chile disclosed its offset obligations
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. The country’s biennial defense exhibition provides an attractive entry route
6.2.2. Joint ventures and collaborations provide market entry opportunities
6.2.3. Foreign equipment manufacturers enter the market through direct commercial sales
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Decreasing defense budget due to removal of Copper Reserve Law

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. FAMAE: overview
7.2.2. FAMAE: products and services
7.2.3. FAMAE: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. FAMAE: Alliances
7.2.5. FAMAE: recent contract wins
7.2.6. FAMAE: financial analysis
7.2.7. Desarrollo de Tecnologias y Sistemas (DTS): overview
7.2.8. Desarrollo de Tecnologias y Sistemas (DTS): products and services
7.2.9. Desarrollo de Tecnologias y Sistemas (DTS): recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.10. Desarrollo de Tecnologias y Sistemas (DTS): alliances
7.2.11. Linktronic Radar Systems: overview
7.2.12. Linktronic Radar Systems: products and services
7.2.13. SISDEF Ltda: overview
7.2.14. SISDEF Ltda: products and services
7.2.15. SISDEF Ltda: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.16. SISDEF Ltda: recent contract wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Female
8.1.2. Population - Male
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency
8.2.2. Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars
8.2.3. Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP
8.2.4. Deposit Interest Rate
8.2.5. Exports of goods and services, current prices
8.2.6. External debt as percentage of GDP (%)
8.2.7. Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP
8.2.8. Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.9. GDP at Purchasing Power Parity
8.2.10. GDP, Constant Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.11. GDP, Constant Prices (US$)
8.2.12. GDP, Current Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.13. GDP, Current Prices (US$)
8.2.14. General Government Final Consumption Expenditure
8.2.15. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices
8.2.16. Imports of goods and services
8.2.17. Inflation, average consumer prices
8.2.18. Interest Rate (Lending)
8.2.19. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Billions)
8.2.20. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billions)
8.2.21. US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average)
8.2.22. Wholesale Price Index
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Crude Oil Distillation Capacity
8.3.2. Electricity Imports
8.3.3. Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Fossil Fuels Proved natural gas reserves
8.3.5. Fossil Fuels- Proved oil reserves
8.3.6. Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity
8.3.7. Natural Gas Consumption
8.3.8. Natural Gas Imports
8.3.9. Natural Gas Production
8.3.10. Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation
8.3.11. Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation
8.3.12. Net Hydroelectric Power Generation
8.3.13. Petroleum, Consumption
8.3.14. Petroleum, Production
8.4. Minerals
8.4.1. Coal Consumption
8.4.2. Coal Production
8.5. Social & Political Risk
8.5.1. Political Stability Index
8.5.2. Transparency Index

9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Chilean Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 2: Chilean Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 3: Chilean Defense Expenditure Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Table 4: Chilean Defense Expenditure Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Table 5: Chilean GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2012
Table 6: Chilean GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2017
Table 7: Chilean Defense budget breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Table 8: Chilean Defense budget breakdown (%), 2013-2017
Table 9: Chilean Army Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2008-2012
Table 10: Chilean Army Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013-2017
Table 11: Chilean Navy Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2008-2012
Table 12: Chilean Navy Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013-2017
Table 13: Chilean Defense Budget Allocation for Other Defense Expenses (US$ Million), 2008-2012
Table 14: Chilean Defense Budget Allocation for Other Defense Expenses (US$ Million), 2013-2017
Table 15: Chilean Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 16: Chilean Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 17: Chilean Homeland Security Budget Breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Table 18: Chilean Homeland Security Budget Breakdown (%), 2013-2017
Table 19: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 20: Benchmarking with Key Markets: 2008–2012 vs. 2013–2017
Table 21: Top Country Ranking by Value of Arms Imports, 2007–2011*
Table 22: Top 20 Country Ranking by Value of Arms Exports, 2007–2011*
Table 23: FAMAE– Product Focus
Table 24: FAMAE – Alliances
Table 25: FAMAE: Recent Contract Wins
Table 26: Desarrollo de Tecnologias y Sistemas (DTS)– Product Focus
Table 27: Desarrollo de Tecnologias y Sistemas (DTS)– Alliances
Table 28: Linktronic Radar Systems – Product Focus
Table 29: SISDEF Ltda – Product Focus
Table 30: SISDEF Ltda – Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

Figure 1: Chilean Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 2: Chilean Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 3: Chilean Defense Expenditure Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Figure 4: Chilean Defense Expenditure Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Figure 5: Chilean GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2012
Figure 6: Chilean GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2017
Figure 7: Chilean Defense budget breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Figure 8: Chilean Defense budget breakdown (%), 2013-2017
Figure 9: Chilean Army Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2008-2012
Figure 10: Chilean Army Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure(US$ Million), 2013-2017
Figure 11: Chilean Navy Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure(US$ Million), 2008-2012
Figure 12: Chilean Navy Spending Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure(US$ Million), 2013-2017
Figure 13: Chilean Defense Budget Allocation for Other Defense Expenses (US$ Million), 2008-2012
Figure 14: Chilean Defense Budget Allocation for Other Defense Expenses (US$ Million), 2013-2017
Figure 15: Chilean Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 16: Chilean Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 17: Chilean Homeland Security Budget Breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Figure 18: Chilean Homeland Security Budget Breakdown (%), 2013-2017
Figure 19: Strategic Defence Intelligence Terrorism Heat Map, 2011
Figure 20: Strategic Defence Intelligence Terrorism Index, 2011
Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Global Markets: 2008–2012 vs. 2013–2017
Figure 22: Defense Expenditure of Countries with the Largest Global Military Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012 and 2017
Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as percentage of GDP of Countries with the Largest Military Expenditure (%), 2012
Figure 24: Chilean Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2007–2011
Figure 25: Chilean Defense Imports by Country (US$ Million), 2007–2011
Figure 26: Chilean Defense Imports by Category (US$ Million), 2007–2011
Figure 27: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 28: FAMAE: Revenue Trend Analysis (CLP Billion), 2007–2011
Figure 29: FAMAE: Operating Profit Trend Analysis (CLP Billion), 2007–2011
Figure 30: FAMAE: Net Profit Trend Analysis (CLP Billion), 2007–2011
Figure 31: Chilean Population – Female (In Millions), 2008–2017
Figure 32: Chilean Population – Male (In Millions), 2008–2017
Figure 33: Chilean Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency (In Billions), 2001–2010
Figure 34: Chilean Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars (In Billions), 2001–2010
Figure 35: Chilean Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP, 2008–2017
Figure 36: Chilean Deposit Interest Rate, 2001–2010
Figure 37: Chilean Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 38: Chilean External Debt as percentage of GDP (%), 2001–2010
Figure 39: Chilean Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001–2010
Figure 40: Chilean Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 41: Chilean GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (US$ Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 42: Chilean GDP at Constant Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 43: Chilean GDP at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 44: Chilean GDP at Current Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 45: Chilean GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2006–2015
Figure 46: Chilean General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 47: Chilean Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 48: Chilean Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 49: Chilean Inflation, average consumer prices, 2008–2017
Figure 50: Chilean Lending Interest rate, 2001–2010
Figure 51: Chilean Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 52: Chilean Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2001–2010
Figure 53: Chilean US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average), 2002–2011
Figure 54: Chilean Wholesale Price Index, 2000–2009
Figure 55: Chilean Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels Per Cal Day), 2000–2009
Figure 56: Chilean Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 57: Chilean Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2000–2009
Figure 58: Chilean Fossil Fuels Proved natural gas reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2002–2011
Figure 59: Chilean Fossil Fuels- Proved oil reserves (Billion Barrels), 2002–2011
Figure 60: Chilean Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2000–2009
Figure 61: Chilean Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001–2010
Figure 62: Chilean Natural Gas Imports (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001–2010
Figure 63: Chilean Natural Gas Production (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001–2010
Figure 64: Chilean Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 65: Chilean Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2010
Figure 66: Chilean Net Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2009
Figure 67: Chilean Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002–2011
Figure 68: Chilean Petroleum Production (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002–2011
Figure 69: Chilean Coal Consumption (Thousand Short Tons), 2001–2010
Figure 70: Chilean Coal Production (Thousand Short Tons), 2001–2010
Figure 71: Chilean Political Stability Index, 2002–2010
Figure 72: Chilean Transparency Index, 2002–2011

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