The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (16 countries) 2016–2021

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Date: 09-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 47
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"Mobile handset data revenue will be the main source of retail revenue in Central and Eastern Europe, accounting for 29% of the total retail revenue in 2021."

Service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) visibly recovered in 2015, but we forecast slow service revenue decline in the forecast period. We anticipate that total service revenue (including pay TV) will decline to EUR60.4 billion in 2021, compared with EUR61.9 billion in 2015. Mobile retail revenue will increase at a CAGR of 0.1% and fixed retail revenue will decline at a CAGR of –1% in the forecast period.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 345 mobile and fixed KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)


Countries modelled individually


  • Bulgaria

  • Croatia

  • Czech Republic

  • Estonia

  • Hungary

  • Latvia

  • Lithuania

  • Montenegro

  • Poland

  • Romania

  • Russia

  • Serbia

  • Slovakia

  • Slovenia

  • Turkey

  • Ukraine


Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole


  • Albania

  • Belarus

  • Bosnia

  • Macedonia

  • Moldova


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (16 countries) 2016–2021

Table of Contents

8. Executive summary
9. The decline of overall telecoms service revenue will be slow, contrasted by increasing mobile handset data revenue
10. Total telecoms retail revenue will decline by EUR0.2 billion between 2015 and 2021, driven primarily by falling voice revenue
11. Mobile retail revenue will increase slightly by 2021, but the fixed segment requires NGA network deployments in order to increase ASPU
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross - country comparison
15. Geographical coverage: CEE will be dominated by NGA broadband access technology; 4G will account for half of all connections by 2021
16. Market context: Telecoms service revenue totalled EUR56.7 billion in 2015, with Poland, Russia and Turkey contributing 67% to this total
17. Revenue and ARPU: Voice depreciation will drive revenue decline, but mobile handset data revenue will increase by 80% by 2021
18. Mobile penetration: Mobile penetration will decline in most CEE countries, reaching an average of 142% of the CEE population in 2021
19. Mobile connections: The 4G share of all mobile connections will reach 50% by 2021, despite delayed launches in Turkey and Ukraine
20. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will account, on average, for 78% of handsets; LTE technology will account for half of all mobile connections
21. Mobile broadband: 4G will account for more than have of all mobile connections, but service take up will slow down
22. Mobile ARPU: Average ARPU will decline in most CEE countries due to intense price competition, but the decline will slow down by 2021
23. Data and revenue by generation: 4G will contribute most to mobile service revenue due to its rapid roll - out and 2G/3G network replacement
24. Fixed services: FTTP/B connections will account for more than half of all fixed broadband connections in 2021
25. Fixed broadband: Household penetration in CEE will increase from 47% in 2015 to 55% in 2021, supported by government investments
26. Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern European market
27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
29. Individual country forecasts
30. Czech Republic: Revenue decline will slow down as mobile prices are bottoming out and the fixed broadband market grows
31. Czech Republic – mobile: ARPU will continue to come under pressure from competition, which will ease off in the future
32. Czech Republic – fixed: Fixed - wireless will continue to be the most popular broadband access technology
33. Poland: Mobile handset data revenue will continue to increase but price competition drives the total revenue down
34.Poland – mobile: Declining voice revenue will be offset by growth in handset data and mobile broadband revenue
35. Poland – fixed: The number of fixed broadband connections will increase following expanded network coverage
36. Russia: Fixed – mobile substitution will drive a decline in revenue as cheap mobile calls replace fixed voice traffic
37. Russia – mobile: Commercial launch of 5G is expected within the forecast period, with the FIFA World Cup used as a showcase
38. Russia – fixed: Fixed – mobile voice substitution accelerated in 2015, while FTTP roll - out is driving the broadband market
39. Turkey: Increasing 4G coverage and service take - up, supported by broadband investments, will drive revenue growth
40. Turkey: The launch of LTE in April 2016 will drive mobile handset data usage and revenue growth
41. Turkey: Fixed broadband revenue will account for 66% of all retail fixed revenue in 2021
42. About the authors and Analysys Mason
43. About the authors
44. About Analysys Mason
45. Research from Analysys Mason
46. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay - TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 2: Telecoms and pay - TV retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 – 2021
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 – 2021
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 – 2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 – 2021
Figure 10a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 10b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 14a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 14b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010 – 2021
Figure 18a: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe 2011 – 2021
Figure 18b: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 – 2021
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016 – 2021), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2011 – 2021
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2015 – 2021
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2015 – 2021
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2011 – 2021
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2011 – 2021
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2011 – 2021
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2011 – 2021
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2011 – 2021
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2015 – 2021
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2015 – 2021
Figure 32: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2011 – 2021
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2011 – 2021
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2011 – 2021
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2011 – 2021
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2011 – 2021
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2011 – 2021
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2015 – 2021
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2015 – 2021
Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Russia, 2011 – 2021
Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2011 – 2021
Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2011 – 2021
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2011 – 2021
Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Turkey, 2011 – 2021
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2015 – 2021
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey, 2015 – 2021
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Turkey, 2011 – 2021
Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2011 – 2021
Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2011 – 2021
Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2011 – 2021
Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey

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