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The Biofuels Global Market Outlook 2017-2021

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Date: 30-Apr-2018
No. of pages: 168
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Executive summary

Biofuels, the biofuel resource and the growth of biofuels:-

The report gathers data on biofuel across the countries leading the market for biofuel. The report covers: costs, drivers, inhibitors, market growth, forecasts,  the key players, key feedstock available, and the prominent biofuel power technology utilized in each of the key  countries, including: the US, Germany, Brazil, the UK.


  • The potential for liquid biofuels is indicated by the world’s dependence on crude oil for transportation, with estimations signalling that fuels from crude oil currently supply about 96% of the worldwide energy demand for transport purposes.

  • The combination of biomass and biofuels accounted for around 71% of the world’s total renewable energy production in 2015 and comprised around 10% of total global energy supply.

  • All renewables together currently represent around 19% of final energy consumption and biofuels for transport comprising around 4% of renewable energy consumption.


Biofuel technologies and technology trends:-


  • Lignocellulosic biomass (e.g. from wood and grasses) as well as methanol and Fischer-Tropsch diesel are viewed by many as likely candidates for biofuels in the long-term, but the rate of uptake and cost decrease has not been as high as previously anticipated. Some of the currently available biofuels have a number of disadvantages that are related to their feedstock. The current costs of rapeseed biodiesel and ethanol from cereals or beets are much higher than the costs of petrol or diesel, with substantial subsidies required to make them competitive.

  • Second generation biofuels had been developed due to limitations of first generation biofuels, primarily that the resources used threatens food supplies. Second generation biofuels production processes include use a variety of non-food crops such as waste biomass, the stalks of wheat, corn, wood and miscanthus.

  • The term ‘Third generation biofuel’ primarily references fuel derived from algae. Algae has a much higher production volume than other noted biofuels crops to date such as soybeans.


The economics of biofuels:-


  • There is a growing sense that biofuels produced from biomass are now an economically and technically feasible proposition.

  • The production costs of biofuels vary significantly between regions and are dependent on the price of raw materials (biomass), the method of production, the refining process, and the use of by-products and waste. Thus costs can be highly variable dependent on the various combinations used in each country or location.


Biofuels policies and regulations:-


  • To date, 192 countries and governmental entities have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, representing over 60% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

  • In 2017, President Donald Trump stated that the RFS has reenergized rural America. The 300 biorefineries operating across the country today support hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs, reduce foreign oil dependence and keep fuel prices down.

  • India had a 20% biofuels mandate by 2017, which was missed.

  • European Parliament voted to cap crop-based biofuels at 2017 levels brought in by a last minute amendment submitted by three key party groups on the day of the vote.


Market sizing and growth, Future market and economic prospects for biofuel:-


  • Worldwide production of bioethanol and biodiesel reached 98.3bn litres and 30.1bn litres in 2015, respectively.

  • While biofuels accounted for just 1% of total fuel production in 2016, the biofuels market is predicted to grow significantly in the medium to long-term. For example, some forecasts estimate that biofuels could replace 10% of the global demand for transport fuels by 2025.

  • Global fuel ethanol production kept increasing from year to year to 26,584m of gallons in 2016.


Key features of this report


  • Identification of the most promising countries in the biofuel and highlights how various geographic markets are expanding their share in the total energy supply mix using biofuel.

  • Five-year assessment of the latest biofuel technology and installed biofuel capacity.

  • Liquid biofuel market trends and costs.

  • List of major key players of biofuel renewable energy.

  • Information on government policy framework on biofuel for supporting the biofuel market.

  • Identification of biofuel energy development and potential resource globally and in major countries in the future.


Key benefits from reading this report


  • Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive assessment of the biofuel and installed biofuel capacity in biofuel markets.

  • Achieve a comprehensive understanding of the drivers and resistors effecting the biofuel market.

  • Analyze the cost of biofuel power technology against that of other renewable power technologies.

  • Understand government policy framework on biofuel for each country and learn which technology trends are likely to allow greater market impact.

  • Identify the growth of biofuel development and biofuel resource potential in the future and examine how it is changing the economics the biofuel technologies.

    •Assess global future outlook in energy demand by fuel and scenario by technology.



Key findings of this report


  • The total EU bioethanol consumption market size in 2017 was estimated to be 5,140 million litres.

  • The seven largest biodiesel producing countries provide 75% of the biodiesel production of the 20 countries included. The US and Brazil provide almost 30% of the total on their own.

  • Ethanol from sugar cane – as produced in Brazil – provides the lowest production costs of all existing commercial-scale biofuels, and is already competitive with current production costs for diesel and gasoline. According to the estimates provided, production costs are likely to fall even further over time to around $3 per gigajoule of energy.

  • Although bioenergy and biofuels will increasingly utilize non-food feedstocks to meet sustainability demands, crops grown for energy and fuel production could use between 50 and 300 million hectares by 2030.

  • In 2017, Exxon Mobil in conjunction with Synthetic Genomics (the company of J.Craig Venter, the scientist who mapped the human genome) announced a breakthrough in increasing the oil content of algae from around 20% to around 40%.


Key questions answered by this report


  • What was the market size of the global biofuel market?

  • What will be the forecast of installed biofuel capacity?

  • What are the drivers shaping and influencing additions to installed capacity in the global biofuel market?

  • What are the major key players of biofuel renewable energy?

  • What is the impact of political developments on a country’s biofuel market?

  • What is the regulatory policy framework governing in the leading biofuel of the US, Germany, Brazil, and the UK?

  • What is the future growth potential offered by promising biofuel power markets such as China, and India?

The Biofuels Global Market Outlook 2017-2021

Table of Contents

Disclaimer 2
Table of Contents 3
Expert Author Profile 7
Rupert Blackstone 7
Table of figures 8
Table of tables 10
Biofuels, the biofuel resource and the growth of biofuels 12
Biofuel technologies and technology trends 13
The economics of biofuels 14
Biofuels drivers and inhibitors 15
Biofuels policies and regulations 16
Market sizing and growth, Future market and economic prospects for biofuel 16

Chapter 1 Biofuels, the biofuel resource and the growth of biofuels 18
World energy demand 18
Climate change 18
Renewable energy 19
What are biofuels? 22
Solid biofuels 22
Liquid biofuels 22
Gas biofuels 23
Biofuels in current use 23
Ethanol 23
Distribution, storage and blending 23
End-use 23
Biodiesel 24
Distribution, storage and blending 24
End-use 24

Chapter 2 Biofuel technologies and technology trends 27
Introduction 27
Second generation biofuels 27
Second generation biofuels under development 29
Biohydrogen 29
BioDME 29
Biomethanol 29
Butanol and Isobutanol 29
Dimethylfuran (DMF) 30
Hydro Thermal Upgrading (HTU) diesel 30
Fischer-Tropsch fuels 30
Bioconversion of biomass to mixed alcohol fuels 30
Wood diesel 31
Key players in second generation / advanced biofuels 31
Market possibilities for second generation / advanced biofuels 31
Third generation biofuels 33
Algae fuel 33
Background to Algae for fuel 34
Limitations of previous biofuels 34
Algae types 34
Algae cultivation 35
Photo-bioreactor 35
Closed-loop systems 35
Open pond systems 35
Algae fuel potential 36
Development timeline 37
Aircraft biofuels testing 38
Key players for third generation biofuel 42
Market possibilities for algae biofuel 42

Chapter 3 The economics of biofuels 45
Introduction 45
American market 45
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 46
Biofuels direction away from corn-based ethanol 46
The biofuels economy 48
Production costs 48
Cost of distribution 57
Third generation algae fuel costs 57
Algae fuel leading players costs comparison 57
Transport fuel blends 58
Car costs and fuel efficiency 59
Biofuels compared 60
Hydrogen versus electric vehicles versus biofuels 61

Chapter 4 Biofuels drivers and inhibitors 63
Market Background 63
Drivers of the biofuels market 67
Greenhouse gases and environmental concerns 67
Regulatory incentives/pressure 70
Concern about energy security 71
Rising cost of existing fuel supplies 72
Consumer pressure 77
Inhibitors of the biofuels market 77
Cost of production 79
Sustainability concerns and the rising price of food crops 79
Limited biofuels infrastructure 79
Biomass and land availability 81

Chapter 5 Biofuels policies and regulations 88
Introduction 88
Policy framework 89
Renewable energy targets 90
Kyoto Protocol 90
European Union 90
US 93
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) 93
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) 95
Developing nations 95
Biofuels Targets 96
Biofuels policy overview by region 96
The European Union 96
Biofuels Directive 96
Directive 2003/96/EC 98
Incentives for biofuels 98
National Renewable Energy Action Plans 99
The United States 101
US Energy Policy Act 2005 101
Brazil 101
Proalcool Program 101
India 103
Biodiesel Policy 103
Bioethanol Policy 104
China 104
Environmental Commitments Support Long-Term Ethanol Prospects 104
The renewable Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China 105
Biofuels policy overview of selected countries 105

Chapter 6 Market sizing and growth, future market and economic prospects for biofuel 107
Worldwide energy demand 107
Biofuels market sizing 110
Worldwide 110
Ethanol 115
Biodiesel 118
Europe 124
Ethanol 124
EU Biodiesel 132
US 140
Ethanol 140
US Biodiesel 143
Brazil 147
Ethanol Production 147
Brazil Biodiesel 151
India 154
India’s fuel economy 154
India Ethanol 155
India Biodiesel 159
China 161
China’s fuel economy 161
China Ethanol 161
China Biodiesel 164
Glossary/Abbreviations 167
Energy content and conversion rates 168

List of Tables

Table 1: World renewable energy, 2016 19
Table 2: Global energy consumption breakdown, 2015 21
Table 3: Typical oil extraction from 100kg of oil seeds (kg) 25
Table 4: Investment cost components for different energy pathways (USD 60/bbl) 49
Table 5: Investment cost components for different energy pathways (USD 150/bbl) 51
Table 6: Cost of transport, distribution and refuelling infrastructure for energy pathways (USD 60/bbl) 53
Table 7: Cost of transport, distribution and refuelling infrastructure for energy pathways (USD 150/bbl) 55
Table 8: Top biofuels companies, 2016 58
Table 9: Projected world energy demand (Mtoe), 2012-2040 63
Table 10: Growth in energy demand by region (Mtoe), 2012-2040 65
Table 11: Projected worldwide oil consumption (mboe/d), 2014-2040 66
Table 12: Average annual oil price (US$ per barrel), 2017 72
Table 13: Total Proven Reserves of Oil, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017 74
Table 14: Key barriers for biofuels 78
Table 15: Criteria applied in reference and sustainability scenarios (EU Biomass Futures Project, 2012) 84
Table 16: Potentials (Mtoe) per aggregate class compared based on time period and scenario, EU Biomass Futures Project 2012 85
Table 17: Renewable energy country attractiveness index, 2017 89
Table 18: Mechanisms to incentivise renewable energy generation 90
Table 19: EU renewable energy targets for 2020 (%) 92
Table 20: Renewable fuels targets in the US (billion gallons), 2017-2022 94
Table 21: Biofuels energy targets 96
Table 22: Biofuels policy overview of selected countries, 2016 106
Table 23: Comparison of worldwide fuel production from hydrocarbon sources versus biomass sources, 2015 108
Table 24: Worldwide biofuels fuel production volume (bn litres), 2015 108
Table 25: Amounts of raw materials to meet worldwide fuel demand, 2016 110
Table 26: Global bioethanol production (millions of gallons), 2016 116
Table 27: Biodiesel (million L/a), 2014 119
Table 28: Global ethanol and biodiesel production 123
Table 29: Bioethanol in Europe (million L/a), 2015 125
Table 30: EU bioethanol production, supply and demand (1,000MT) 127
Table 31: EU bioethanol production – number of plants and capacity (1,000MT), 2016 128
Table 32: EU, Feedstock use for bioethanol production (1,000MT), 2016 129
Table 33: EU bioethanol consumption – main consumers (million litres), 2016 130
Table 34: EU bioethanol and gasoline consumption (Ktoe) 131
Table 35: Biodiesel production in Europe (millions litres/annum), 2017 133
Table 36: EU Biodiesel production – number of plants and capacity (1,000MT) 135
Table 37: Forecast EU market share of biodiesel production in 2017 (%), 2016 135
Table 38: Feedstock use for biodiesel production (1,000MT), 2016 138
Table 39: EU biodiesel consumption (million litres), 2016 139
Table 40: EU biodiesel and diesel consumption (ktoe), 2016 140
Table 41: US bioethanol production development (million gallons), 2017 141
Table 42: Existing ethanol capacity in the US, 2017 142
Table 43: US biodiesel (million L/a), 2017 144
Table 44: US ethanol and biodiesel projected production (million barrels per day) 146
Table 45: Brazil biofuels development (million L/a), 2016 149
Table 46: Brazilian biodiesel production, supply, and demand (million litres), 2016 152
Table 47: Brazilian fuel consumption matrix (000 m3) 153
Table 48: Brazilian soybeans and products production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons) 154
Table 49: Brazilian cotton and products production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons) 154
Table 50: Biofuels production from multiple feedstock in India (million litres/year), 2014-2018 155
Table 51: Projected demand and supply of ethanol in India, 2014-2018 156
Table 52: Ethanol used as fuel and other industrial chemicals in India (million litres), 2014-2018 157
Table 53: Projected demand for crude oil, diesel and petrol in India (MT), 2021-2032 160
Table 54: Diesel and biodiesel demand in India using Jatropha (MT), 2013-2017 161
Table 55: China’s major biodiesel plants production capacity (MT), 2016 165

List of Figures

Figure 1: World renewable energy, 2016 20
Figure 2: World renewable energy, 2016 20
Figure 3: Global energy consumption breakdown, 2015 21
Figure 4: Typical oil extraction from 100kg of oil seeds (kg) 26
Figure 5: Biofuels comparison (litres of oil yields/hectare/year), to 2009 36
Figure 6: Global biosphere, 2016 37
Figure 7: Flight Tests with Biojet Fuels through Different Conversion Pathways by Commercial Airlines 39
Figure 8: Flight Tests with Biojet Fuels through Different Conversion Pathways (International Civil Aviation Organization 2012) by Military Aircraft 40
Figure 9: Cushing, OK WTI Oil Spot Price FOB prices (Dollars per Barrel), 1995-2015 43
Figure 10: Investment cost components for different energy pathways (USD 60/bbl) 50
Figure 11: Investment cost components for different energy pathways (USD 150/bbl) 52
Figure 12: Cost of transport, distribution and refuelling infrastructure for energy pathways (USD 60/bbl) 54
Figure 13: Cost of transport, distribution and refuelling infrastructure for energy pathways (USD 150/bbl) 56
Figure 14: Gasoline ethanol (kpa/%v/v) 59
Figure 15: Vehicle price (2012 $) and fuel economy (miles/gallon equivalent) of midsize passenger car, 2014 60
Figure 16: Projected world energy demand (Mtoe), 2012-2040 64
Figure 17: Growth in energy demand by region (Mtoe), 2012-2040 65
Figure 18: Projected worldwide oil consumption (mboe/d), 2014-2040 67
Figure 19: Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Associated with Different Fuels 68
Figure 20: Average annual oil price (US$ per barrel), 2017 73
Figure 21: Total Proven Reserves of Oil, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017 75
Figure 22: Oil consumption by region, 2017 76
Figure 23: Opting for green energy is one behavioural aspect of rising environmental attitudes 77
Figure 24: Potentials (Mtoe) per aggregate class compared based on time period and scenario, EU Biomass Futures Project 2012 87
Figure 25: Renewable fuels targets in the US (billion gallons), 2017-2022 94
Figure 26: EU biofuels targets, 2017 98
Figure 27: Worldwide biofuels fuel production volume (bn litres), 2015 109
Figure 28: Biodiesel consumption, (thousand barrels per day), 2014 111
Figure 29: Fuel ethanol consumption, (thousand barrels per day), 2014 112
Figure 30: Biodiesel production, (thousand barrels per day), 2014 113
Figure 31: Fuel ethanol production, (thousand barrels per day), 2014 114
Figure 32: Global Fuel Ethanol Production by Country (%), 2016 115
Figure 33: Global bioethanol production (millions of gallons), 2016 117
Figure 34: Top bioethanol producing countries (millions of gallons), 2016 118
Figure 35: Biodiesel (million L/a), 2014 120
Figure 36: Biofuels Global Production, Top 16 Countries and EU-28 (billion litres), 2016 122
Figure 37: Global ethanol and biodiesel production 124
Figure 38: Bioethanol in Europe (million L/a), 2015 126
Figure 39: Biodiesel production in Europe (millions litres/annum), 2017 134
Figure 40: Forecast EU market share of biodiesel production in 2017 (%), 2016 136
Figure 41: US bioethanol production development (million gallons), 2017 141
Figure 42: US biodiesel (million L/a), 2017 144
Figure 43: Projected US ethanol production (million barrels per day), 2015-2050 147
Figure 44: Brazil biofuels development (million L/a), 2016 149

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