Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 79

BMI View: Following the 4G spectrum auctions in late 2015 and the re-auction in May 2016, competition

in the telecoms sector has been fiercer than ever. Efforts to migrate 2G subscribers to 3G and 4G networks

have led to increased costs from marketing expenses and handset subsidies, and this has been reflected in

operators' Q216 financials with DTAC experiencing an 89.7% y-o-y fall in net profits and True drawing a

net loss for the quarter. While the licensing of spectrum through auctions has incentivised operators to

speed up service development and network rollouts, the lack of regulator independence and a political

agenda in telecoms will continue to weigh on the industry, and this could be aggravated by the

establishment of the new Digital Economy and Society Ministry.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

? Jas Mobile failed to generate the estimated USD2.1bn required for the first instalment of the 4G

spectrum licence it won last year. DTAC and True have walked away from the auction and AIS became

the receiver of the spectrum block at Jas's winning bid. The failure of Jas to enter the market will ensure

that competition amongst the three incumbent players will heat up.

? Total mobile subscriptions have rebounded to 86.54mn in Q116 after falling for three consecutive

quarters in 2015 as a result of the compulsory SIM registration drive which lasted till August. This

figure still represents a 7.4% reduction from Q115 figures. However, a notable effect was the

resulting rise in 3G/4G subscriptions as a percentage of total mobile subscriptions to 95%, from 85%

a year earlier, and we forecast total 3G/4G subscriptions to reach 86.6mn by end-2020.

? Despite the focus on the mobile sector this year, latest fixed broadband subscription data from the

regulator has shown a strong continuous growth in subscribers, to 6.4mn in Q116, y-o-y growth of

14.3%. We believe this steady increase will continue into 2016, reaching 6.85mn by the year-end.

Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Thailand 2013-2020) 14
Industry Risk/Reward Index 15
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 15
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416 17
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Market Overview 21
Market Drivers & Trends 21
Mobile 22
Table: 3G & 4G Uptake by Operator ('000) 27
Wireline Voice & Broadband 28
Table: Broadband Market Growth 29
Table: Thai Broadband Market (2015e) 29
Pay TV/ Convergence 34
Regulatory Development 38
Regulatory Overview 38
Industry Risks 38
Main Development: Concessions Vs Licensed Spectrum 39
Additional Developments 42
Table: Thailand's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 43
Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Mobile Market Overview 44
Table: AIS 44
Table: DTAC 47
Table: True 49
Table: Broadband Connections 50
Company Profile 51
TOT 51
True Corporation 56
Advanced Info Service (AIS) 60
Demographic Forecast 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Thailand 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Thailand 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Thailand 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Thailand 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Thailand 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Thailand 2013-2020)
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416
Table: 3G & 4G Uptake by Operator ('000)
Table: Broadband Market Growth
Table: Thai Broadband Market (2015e)
Table: Thailand's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Mobile Market Overview
Table: AIS
Table: DTAC
Table: True
Table: Broadband Connections
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Thailand 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Thailand 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Thailand 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Thailand 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Thailand 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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