Thailand Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 57

BMI View: Thailand's plan to reduce its reliance on gas-fired power generation will create opportunities

for alternatives such as coal and renewables, which poses upside risks to our outlook for the country's

energy related infrastructure. That said, the scale of upside risk has been limited somewhat following the

announcement that EPAC has approved the construction of a new LNG import terminal at Rayong. We

highlight that lower than expected power consumption over the near term means such opportunities will

begin to have an impact on infrastructure construction only beyond 2017-2018 as projects are delayed until

demand picks up. We retain a modest growth forecast for 2016 and 2017, with power generation set to

grow by 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) plans to build six new coal-fired power plants

by 2025 in a bid to improve its share of the power supply market from 37% to 50%. The six new plants

are expected to have a combined capacity of 4,390MW. Two of the plants will be located in the southern

provinces of Krabi and Songkhla and are expected to be operational by 2020-2022. Currently, 20% of

EGAT's electricity generation is from coal-fired power plants, which will increase to 30-35% after the six

new facilities become operational.

? The largest source of growth in 2016 will be thermal generation, while non-hydropower renewables will

be the fastest growing sub-sector at 11.0%. Meanwhile, the Thai power sector's long-term growth outlook

is muted, as the country continues to experience challenges in procuring gas supplies and is clearly

moving towards increasing reliance on electricity imports. We see electricity generation growing at an

average rate of 3.0% per annum between 2016-2025. Growth will be primarily driven by nonhydropower

renewable energy generation and coal-fired generation. We see limited scope for expansion

in gas-fired generation.

Thailand Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Thailand 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Thailand Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Thailand Power Forecast Scenario 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 23
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 24
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 25
Transmission And Distribution 26
Industry Risk Reward Index 27
Asia Power Risk Reward Index 27
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100) 33
Thailand Power Risk/Reward Index 34
Rewards 34
Risks 34
Market Overview 35
Key Policies And Market Structure 35
Regulation And Competition 35
Sustainable Energy Policies 36
Pricing 37
Thailand Power Projects Database 38
Table: Thailand - Top Ten Projects By Capacity Type 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT) 41
Glow Energy 42
CLP/EGCO 42
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company (RATCH) 43
Independent Power (Thailand) 44
Regional Overview 45
Asia (Region) - Coal To Dominate, But Contribution To Slip 45
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast 49
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Thailand 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: Thailand - Top Ten Projects By Capacity Type
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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