Tanzania Power Report Q3 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 52

BMI View: The Tanzanian power sector will become increasingly diversified on the back of increased gas

and coal-fired generation, while the government seeks to decrease reliance on hydropower. Increased gas

supply from new discoveries will help to drive further investment into gas-fired capacity. Government

efforts to increase electrification rates will help boost small-scale distributed renewable energy solutions.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Construction on the 240 megawatt (MW) Kinyerezi II gas-fired power plant has started in March and is

forecast to be commissioned and operational in 2018.

? The Tanzania Electricity Supply Company (Tanesco) has stated that it has plans to upgrade the Kinyerezi

I gas-fired power plant from 150MW to 335MW. We will incorporate this into our forecasts if we see

progress on the planned upgrades.

? Apart from the 80MW Rusumo Falls hydroelectric project, we do not currently expect any further

hydropower investment in Tanzania. This is as a result of the government stating that it will actively seek

to diversify the country's power sector away from hydropower by increasing its thermal power

generation. Rusumo falls will also offer Tanzania only 26.6MW of capacity, as the total 80MW is to be

split evenly between Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.

? The World Bank Board of Executive Directors has approved a loan of USD200mn to the Tanzanian

government for the extension of electricity grid access to a further 2.5mn households over the next five

years. The extension is being done through the Tanzania Rural Electrification Expansion Programme.

The programme will involve increasing the supply of renewable energy in rural areas.

? The China Export-Import Bank has approved the funds for the construction of a transmission line

between Dar Es Salaam and Arusha via Chalinze.

Tanzania Power Report Q3 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Tanzania 2015-2021) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Tanzania Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tanzania 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tanzania 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Tanzania Power Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019) 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025) 16
Electricity Consumption 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025) 17
Transmission & Distribution 18
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2029) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025) 19
Industry Risk Reward Index 20
Sub-Saharan Africa Power Risk/Reward Index 20
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Tanzania Power Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 27
Market Overview 29
Key Policies And Market Structure 29
Tanzania Power Projects Database 31
Competitive Landscape 34
Regional Overview 38
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 38
Glossary 46
Table: Glossary Of Terms 46
Methodology 47
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Tanzania 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2029)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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