Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 78

BMI View: Tanzania continues to be an attractive prospect for investment, as a result of its gas-rich

offshore resources. A 'lower-for-longer' oil price scenario and sustained downward pressure on LNG prices

pose risks to FID on Tanzania's LNG export project. Continued fiscal and regulatory uncertainties are also

a threat and could push first exports beyond our 10-year forecast period. Without the project, it is unlikely

that a significant portion of the country's offshore assets will be developed in the near or medium term.

Consumption growth looks strong for both refined fuels and gas, albeit from a comparatively low base. Gas

consumption will be met domestically, but a lack of refining capacity will see an increased reliance on

imported fuels.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

? Ongoing uncertainty regarding the country's oil and gas regulations remains a key hurdle for investors,

despite significant offshore gas resources. Based on the new model production sharing agreement,

companies may expect higher taxation, an expanded role for the state and more stringent local content

mandates.

? The Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation has extended Aminexs' Mtwara licence by one

year. The company plans to drill the Ntorya-2 appraisal well over this time period, followed by an

application for a 25-year development licence if drilling proves positive.

? After minor delays, Aminex announced that production began at the Kilwani North field in early April

2016. The company believes that optimal production rates will be around 30mmcf per day.

? As of September, Tanzania will adopt the bulk procurement system for the import of liquefied petroleum

gas (LPG). Bulk procurement was brought in to make the importat of petroleum products easier, help

regulate prices and promote efficiency in the sector.

Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Tanzania Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2020-2025) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Refined Fuels Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2020-2025) 25
Gas Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Oil 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 40
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 43
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Tanzania - Risk/Reward Index 45
Market Overview 46
Tanzania Energy Market Overview 46
Regulatory Structure 46
Fiscal Regime 47
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Fiscal Terms 47
Licensing Regime 48
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Contract Terms 48
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 49
Oil & Gas Pipelines 49
Table: Tanzania - Main Oil & Gas Pipelines 49
Oil Storage Facilities 49
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Storage Facilities 49
Oil Trade Facilities 50
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Terminals 50
LNG Terminals 50
Table: Tanzania Main LNG Terminals 50
Competitive Landscape 51
Company Profile 53
Statoil 53
Latest Updates 53
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place 54
ExxonMobil 55
Latest Updates 55
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place 57
Shell 58
Latest Updates 58
Table: Shell (BG Group) Assets in Tanzania 60
Regional Overview 61
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 61
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 70
Glossary 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Source 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 77
Table: Weighting 78

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2020)
Table: Tanzania Major Upstream Projects
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025)
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Fiscal Terms
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Contract Terms
Table: Tanzania - Main Oil & Gas Pipelines
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Terminals
Table: Tanzania Main LNG Terminals
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place
Table: Shell (BG Group) Assets in Tanzania
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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