Taiwan Power Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 49

BMI View: Taiwan's power market has grappled with significant political turmoil over the last year, which

has implications for investment priorities and the future power mix. Despite USD9bn+ pledged (and largely

invested) in a fourth nuclear plant - and a successful safety exercise for its first unit in July 2015 - the entire

project was mothballed that year. A new government came to power in early 2016, with an avowedly antinuclear

and pro renewable manifesto, the radical nature of which already appears to have generated

friction with senior personnel at the state-run power utility. Partial nuclear dependence will decline across

our ten year forecast period, although the new government's pledge to eliminate this form of power entirely

looks too ambitious. While renewables will take up some of the slack, the fossil fuel dependent thermal

sector appears set to be the main driver of overall generation and capacity growth, rising from an estimated

80% of total generation in 2015 to over 90% by 2025.

GDP growth appears set to pick up sustainably from 2017, after several weak years. This should ensure that

budget revenues are available for investment in power infrastructure, which the new administration intends

to channel largely towards renewables. Refitted coal fired facilities should also come online over the next

few years, albeit with delays.

Taiwan sits just below mid-table in our regional rankings, taking 9th place, out of a total of 17 countries. It

sits one place below Japan and one place above the Philippines. A heavy import dependence, the dominance

of Taipower, anti-competitive pricing policies and an attendant lack of opportunities for private investors

prevent Taiwan from challenging countries ranked higher up in the table.

Key Trends And Developments

? There have been setbacks to the upgrade of coal facilities over the last year, with the schedules for

Linkou Unit 1, Linkou Unit 2 and Talin Unit 2 all suffering delays between November 2015 and early

2016.Indefinite suspension of the Lungmen nuclear facility, despite a successful safety test (July 2015).

The government mothballed the project that year and the resounding election victory for a stridently antinuclear

new administration in early 2016 means that the project is highly unlikely to be revived, unless

the country faces drastic shortages and/or there is a major shift in public opinion.

Taiwan Power Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Taiwan Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Taiwan 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Taiwan 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Taiwan Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Generation & Capacity Forecasts 11
Nuclear Generation & Capacity Forecasts 13
Hydropower & other Renewables Generation & Capacity Forecasts 14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019) 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025) 17
Electricity Consumption 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019) 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025) 19
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025) 21
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22
Asia Power Risk Reward Index 22
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100) 28
Taiwan Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Risks 29
Market Overview 31
Key Policies And Market Structure 31
Regulation And Competition 31
Sustainable Energy Policies 31
Pricing 32
Key Project Database 33
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities 33
Competitive Landscape 35
Taipower 35
Independent Power Producers 35
Regional Overview 37
Asia (Region) - Coal To Dominate, But Contribution To Slip 37
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast 41
Glossary 43
Table: Glossary Of Terms 43
Methodology 44
Methodology And Sources 44
Industry Forecast Methodology 44
Sources 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

List of Tables

Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Taiwan 2015-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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