Sweden Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 50

BMI View: As the Government continues to struggle to identify a solution to its lack of sufficient baseload

capacity once nuclear comes offline, our forecasts for the sector remain virtually unchanged. Taking into

account positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to

expect power consumption growth in 2017. Similarly, we maintain our long-held view that, while growth

expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone and the implications of the

decision of Brexit remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the country, as

more regional instability could undermine economic activity.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? In 2016, the Swedish coalition government (comprising the Social Democrats, the Moderate Party, the

Green Party, the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats) ruled that the current tax on nuclear power

will be phased out in stages over the next two years. The decision, which signifies a significant U-turn in

the left-wing ruling party's policy on nuclear energy, reflects the government's realisation that base-load

nuclear power will be needed to support additional intermittent renewables and hydropower generation in

the Swedish power mix. That said, we still expect the three ageing nuclear reactors to be phased out by

2020 - with the final decision having been taken by utilities E.ON and Vattenfall. This will lead to a drop

in baseload power generation over the next five years, which we expect will be plugged by renewables

power generation and electricity trade with the Nord Pool.

Sweden Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Sweden 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Sweden Snapshot 10
Table: Economic And Demographic Data (Sweden 2015-2019) 10
Table: Economic And Demographic Data (Sweden 2020-2025) 10
Table: Power Sector 10
Sweden Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019) 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025) 18
Electricity Consumption 18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019) 18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025) 19
Transmission And Distribution 19
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019) 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025) 20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 21
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index 21
Sweden Power Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 27
Market Overview 29
Key Policies And Market Structure 29
Regulation And Competition 29
Sustainable Energy Policies 30
Pricing 31
Sweden Power Project Database 32
Table: Sweden Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity 32
Competitive Landscape 34
Vattenfall 34
E.ON 35
Fortum 35
Regional Overview 36
NAWE Power Key Themes 36
Glossary 44
Table: Glossary Of Terms 44
Methodology 45
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 50

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Sweden 2015-2021)
Table: Economic And Demographic Data (Sweden 2015-2019)
Table: Economic And Demographic Data (Sweden 2020-2025)
Table: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sweden 2020-2025)
Table: Sweden Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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