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BMI View: Economic and political challenges will continue to undermine growth within Sudan and South
Sudan's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. As such, political instability will remain a barrier to any
significant investment in the sector, whilst disagreements about oil revenue sharing will affect both
governments' abilities to fund new healthcare infrastructure projects. The governments' plans to improve
domestic pharmaceutical manufacturer capabilities will attempt to reduce ongoing medicine shortages,
however we do not expect self-sufficiency to be achieved over the short-to-medium term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: SDG3.00bn (USD500mn) in 2015 to SDG3.30bn (USD500mn) in 2016; +10.0% in
local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q316.
? Healthcare: SDG32.73bn (USD5.48bn) in 2015 to SDG36.43bn (USD5.52bn) in 2016; +11.3% in local
currency terms and +0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q316.
In our Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index, Sudan maintains its score of 31.4 out of 100 and asserts its
position in 24th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa region. Regionally,
however, the country scores below average for all indicators under both industry and country risks and
rewards, which is largely due to its small market size and poor economic and political environment.
Sanctions will present long-term headwinds to economic growth, holding back investment and direct
investment opportunities for western multinational drugmakers.