Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 5-Jun-2013
No. of pages: 91

BMI View: After a long delay following the agreement of a formal deal in August 2012, South Sudan has
finally restarted production. The lag time between the landmark deal and the actual resumption of activities
underscores the enduring tensions between Juba and Khartoum. Political risks remain high, and oil flows
from South Sudan remain uncertain. The long-term outlook for South Sudan is better than that of Sudan,
with more prospective acreage and more interest from international companies; however, even here we see
the risks heavily weighted to the downside. Maturing fields in both the north and south pose downside to
our current forecast, which projects minimal growth in supply following a return to pre-crisis output levels.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan’s oil and gas sectors are:
? Our view that border and security issues could again interrupt the flow of South Sudan’s oil to market
played out, with border disputes leading to an escalation in tensions and rhetoric that has now delayed the
restart of oil output. While we continue to expect a slow return of South Sudanese oil to markets
following the restart of production in April, the risks remain clearly to the downside.

Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Oil And Gas Reserves .. 11
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data 11
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data 12
Oil Supply And Demand .. 16
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports 16
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports 17
Gas Supply And Demand . 21
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 22
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption . 22
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption . 22
Revenues And Import Costs . 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Table: Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 25
Rewards In Store For Upstream, Though Risks Loom Very Large .. 26
Table: Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 26
A Widening Downstream Deficit 28
Table: Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 28
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa 30
Sudan And South Sudan - Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Upstream Rating - Overview .. 31
Downstream Rating - Overview . 32
Market Overview 33
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview 33
Table: Upstream Projects . 35
Overview/State Role . 35
Licensing And Regulation 36
Government Policy 37
Licensing Rounds .. 38
International Energy Relations .. 38
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 40
Oil Refineries . 40
Table: Downstream Projects 40
Service Stations . 43
Oil Storage Facilities 43
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 43
Oil Pipelines .. 43
Competitive Landscape . 45
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector . 46
Table: Key Downstream Players . 46
Company Profile . 47
ONGC Sudan 47
CNPC 49
Petronas 51
Other Companies - Summary 53
Regional Overview 55
African Energy Overview .. 55
Sub-Salt Expectations .. 55
Oil Flows Under Stress 56
East African Gas Boom 58
Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race 60
Post-Revolutionary Blues . 61
Global Industry Overview .. 63
Global Energy Market Overview . 63
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) . 64
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts 71
Industry Trend Analysis . 73
Growing Implementation Base 74
Developed Drive 76
Appendix . 77
Africa - Regional Appendix 77
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) . 77
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 78
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 78
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 79
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 80
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 80
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) . 81
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 82
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) . 82
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 83
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) . 84
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 84
Methodology . 85
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 85
Ratings Overview .. 85
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure . 86
Indicators 86
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology 86
Oil & Gas Forecasts Methodology 88
Energy Industry . 88
Cross checks .. 89
Sources 89
Glossary .. 90
Table: Glossary Of Terms 90Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Refining - Production And Consumption
Table: Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
Table: Upstream Projects
Table: Downstream Projects
Table: Key Players - Sudan Energy Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: Glossary Of Terms

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