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BMI View: After a long delay following the agreement of a formal deal in August 2012, South Sudan has
finally restarted production. The lag time between the landmark deal and the actual resumption of activities
underscores the enduring tensions between Juba and Khartoum. Political risks remain high, and oil flows
from South Sudan remain uncertain. The long-term outlook for South Sudan is better than that of Sudan,
with more prospective acreage and more interest from international companies; however, even here we see
the risks heavily weighted to the downside. Maturing fields in both the north and south pose downside to
our current forecast, which projects minimal growth in supply following a return to pre-crisis output levels.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan’s oil and gas sectors are:
? Our view that border and security issues could again interrupt the flow of South Sudan’s oil to market
played out, with border disputes leading to an escalation in tensions and rhetoric that has now delayed the
restart of oil output. While we continue to expect a slow return of South Sudanese oil to markets
following the restart of production in April, the risks remain clearly to the downside.