Sub-Saharan Africa Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 48

BMI View: Limited power sector reform, a history of underinvestment in power generation facilities and

feedstock/water shortages will mean that many of the countries in the region will continue to face power

supply shortfalls. Coal is the dominant source of power generation in the SSA - largely due to South Africa's

well established coal mining and power generation sector. Cross-regional power sector expansion efforts

tend to be centred on boosting hydropower, which represents a relatively cheap and available - albeit

volatile - source of power.

- The SSA region has severe limitations in the power sector, due to a history of underinvestment, which

translates into widespread generation shortfalls amid rampant population growth.

- The inability of SSA governments to ensure that electricity tariffs reflect the cost of maintenance and

investment will remain a pertinent hurdle to improving the region's power sector. Barriers to

liberalisation will remain substantial, due to vested interests in state-owned utilities, which have

culminated in tariffs being set low in order to appease populations with limited spending power. This has

in turn weighed on private investment.

- Côte d'Ivoire maintains its leading position in the SSA Power RRI this quarter; whereas, Zimbabwe

continues to trail the pack. Numerous markets have suffered from a deterioration of scores, notably

Kenya, Nigeria and Angola - as project delays, feedstock issues and lower oil prices cloud the outlook.

The precarious power supply situation in South Africa and Ghana has eased for the time-being, boosting

their respective scores marginally

- In the face of reduced off-take from traditional buyers, power demand growth in SSA holds potential as a

niche LNG export destination. We identify Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and South Africa as the markets with the

highest potential. Government support through pricing and offtake agreements is crucial for long-term

gas import growth.

- The SSA will maintain its overreliance on hydropower generation over the next decade, as weak

consumer spending power, and opposition to power tariff hikes, will centre power sector expansion

efforts on relatively cheap hydropower generation. Hydrological fluctuations will therefore continue to

threaten energy security in the region, which will weigh on investor confidence in energy intensive

sectors.

Sub-Saharan Africa Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
BMI View 5
Table: SSA Headline Power Forecasts 5
Regional Forecast Analysis 7
MEA: Key Themes 7
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status 12
Industry Risk Reward Index 15
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index 15
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 22
Industry Trends 23
Sub Saharan Africa - Power Demand Growth Supports Niche LNG Offtake 23
Table: Select SAA Countries - Forecast Annual Average Growth Rates, % (2016-2025) 26
Sub Saharan: Hydropower Overreliance To Define Regional Power Landscape 28
Replicating REIPPP Success Faces Significant Hurdles 34
Glossary 42
Table: Glossary Of Terms 42
Methodology 43
Methodology And Sources 43
Industry Forecast Methodology 43
Sources 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 46
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 48

List of Tables

Table: SSA Headline Power Forecasts
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: Select SAA Countries - Forecast Annual Average Growth Rates, % (2016-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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