Sri Lanka Power Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 49

BMI View: Sri Lankan power generation is estimated to have grown to 13.90TWh in 2015, up 12.4% from

2014. Coal-fired generation grew at an 18.0% pace, with overall thermal generation expanding by

9.1%. During the period 2016-2025, Sri Lanka's overall power generation is expected to increase by an

annual average of 5.3%, reaching 23.16TWh by the end of the forecast period. With much of the country's

hydropower potential harnessed, growth in this type of generation will slow to 1.25% over the next decade.

However, the country is likely to meet its growing demand through coal and renewables.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? During the period 2016-2025, Sri Lanka's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual

average of 5.27%, reaching 23.16TWh. Driving this growth will mainly be a rise in coal, accompanied by

the build-up of output from non-hydro renewables.

? The government maintains its bold plan to increase the share of non-conventional renewable energy - its

National Energy Policy Target sets out that 10% of grid electricity should be from these sources. Under

the Mahinda Chinthana Future Vision, the target is for 20% of the nation's grid electricity is to be sourced

from these sources. Despite the push for these isolated and smaller renewable sources, we note that

infrastructure limitations (notably from the length of transmission lines and substation transformers)

could reduce the benefits and attractiveness of this type of generation.

? Sri Lanka's Public Utility Commission announced on July 26, 2016 that it would begin to revise

electricity tariffs every six months beginning in April 2017. This should allow for significantly greater

market efficiencies, as producers will now be able to charge rates that are much more closely in line with

market developments. Likewise, we believe that this will lead to greater sustainability of the

government's fiscal accounts, as well as the accounts of power providers, thereby providing a more stable

backdrop for the development and operation of power infrastructure going forward.

Sri Lanka Power Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2015-2022) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Sri Lanka Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sri Lanka 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sri Lanka 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Sri Lanka Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2019) 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2019) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025) 16
Electricity Consumption 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025) 17
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 18
Table: Distribution Losses 18
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025) 19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 20
Asia Power Risk Reward Index 20
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Sri Lanka Power Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 27
Market Overview 29
Key Policies And Market Structure 29
Regulation And Competition 29
Pricing 30
Sri Lanka Power Projects Database 32
Table: BMI Key Power Project Database 32
Competitive Landscape 35
CEB 35
Regional Overview 37
Asia (Region) - Coal To Dominate, But Contribution To Slip 37
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast 41
Glossary 43
Table: Glossary Of Terms 43
Methodology 44
Methodology And Sources 44
Industry Forecast Methodology 44
Sources 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2015-2022)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sri Lanka 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Sri Lanka 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025)
Table: Distribution Losses
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Sri Lanka 2020-2025)
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: BMI Key Power Project Database
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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