Spain Renewables Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 44

BMI View: We hold a bleak outlook for the Spanish non-hydropower renewables sector, as a history of

retroactive subsidy cuts and limited visibility into future policy mean that investors will be cautious to enter

the market. The PP party's inability to form a government after two elections cements this view, as the

country will be unable to devise a new strategy for the sector until a new government can pass budgets in


Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Spain is on the brink of having to embark on a third election - after the political impasse registered after

the first election in December 2015 has occurred again after the second election in June 2016. While the

People's Party (PP) increased their number of seats in , they did not manage to get a majority, despite the

support of Ciudadanos (Citizens). The PP is therefore reliant on the socialists (PSOE) not blocking the

formation of a new government, which to date looks unlikely. Our core view is that a 'grand coalition'

eventually will be formed, which would erode PP's austere renewables policy somewhat. However, the

policy uncertainty registered in the country, and the inherent instability of such a coalition, will dampen

investor interest even should a new government be formed.

? Abengoa, Spain's largest renewable energy company initiated insolvency proceedings in late November

2015. Over the last months, our outlook for the company has improved marginally as it continues

divesting non-core assets and has reached a restructuring agreement with several creditors and investores.

Specifically, Abengoa has negotiated a deal consisting of a EUR1.17bn cash injection from the likes

of Centerbridge Partners, DE Shaw Group, Elliott Management,KKR Credit and Oaktree Capital

Management - in return for a 50% stake in the company post-restructuring. Furthermore, a EUR307mn

in new financial guarantees have been agreed from lenders including Banco Popular, Banco

Santander, Bankia, CaixaBank and Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank The

restructuring plan will ensure that the company becomes more economically sustainable, but the

company that will emerge will be a much smaller global renewables player.

Spain Renewables Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Spain 2015-2021) 5
Industry Forecast 9
Spain Renewables Forecast Scenario 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025) 25
Spain Renewables Projects Database 26
Table: Spain - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 26
Industry Risk/Reward Index 27
Spain Renewables Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 28
Market Overview 30
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 30
Targets 30
Subsidies 31
Infrastructure 32
Competitive Landscape 35
Iberdrola 35
Endesa 35
Acciona 36
Gamesa 36
Glossary 38
Table: Glossary Of Terms 38
Methodology 39
Methodology And Sources 39
Industry Forecast Methodology 39
Sources 41
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 41
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 43
Table: Weighting Indicators 44

List of Tables

Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Spain 2015-2021)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Spain 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Spain 2020-2025)
Table: Spain - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators
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