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BMI View: Though we witnessed an uptick in upstream investment into conventional resources within
Spain over the past several years, we expect domestic production of oil and gas will remain negligible.
Moreover, we believe prospects for onshore unconventionals will remain limited as significant technical,
economic, environmental and political obstacles preclude us from including further upstream development
of shale gas resources within our forecast period.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
- Prospects for conventional oil and gas discoveries remain poor, with insignificant existing volumes of oil
reserves. Offshore opportunities took a hit in 2015 with withdrawals from Repsol and Cairn Energy.
Above-ground regulatory and environmental hurdles along with local government opposition are the
largest obstacles to upstream development. Political, regulatory and economic obstacles will most likely
prevent shale gas from factoring into reserves within the forecast period.
- With consumption forecast set to fall slightly or stagnate amid global overcapacity, the outlook for
Spain's downstream appears bleak. There are no planned new refineries under way with a crude oil
refining capacity forecast to remain at 1.49mn b/d across our forecast period. Risks to this outlook are to
the downside, with ageing refineries unable to compete with the scale and efficiency of new generation
capacity being built in the Middle East and Asia.
- After years of strong refined fuels consumption declines, we forecast consumption to largely stagnate
over the rest of our forecast period thanks to continued efficiency drive in the transport sector and
stagnant vehicle fleet.
- Spain will remain a large net importer of crude oil over the next decade which will weigh on its overall
trade balance. Spain will remain a small net exporter of refined products over the forecast period. This is
a significant change prior to 2012 when Spain was a net importer of refined fuels, and can largely be
explained by the strong decline in domestic consumption.