South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 71

BMI View: Increasing incomes and populations will see South West Africa enjoy long-term growth in corn

production. The region will see output growth outpace consumption growth through to the end of our

forecast period in 2019/20. Meanwhile, there will be significant bumps along the way, with the 2015/16

forecast especially poor for Botswana and Namibia. Angola is the exception, where demand for corn is

forecast to outperform output thanks to a steady growth in consumption between 2016/17 and 2019/20

while output levels in the country stagnate. In the sugar sector, we see production in the key market of

Angola beginning to slow throughout the forecast period, as cheap imports from Brazil and China compete

with local production.

Key BMI Forecasts

- Angolan sugar production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 22.6% to 135,200 tonnes. We have revised down

our forecast for sugar production in Angola for 2015/16 and for every full-year period through to the end

of our forecast period in 2019/20.

- Angola corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: -2.8% to 1.4mn tonnes. Insufficient rains during

the cropping season caused widespread crop failure and caused a large-scale slump in output in 2015/16.

Following a sharp decline in output in 2016/17, we expect production growth to ease off through the

duration of our forecast period.

- Angola corn consumption growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 2.4% to 1.84mn tonnes. Namibia corn

consumption growth for 2015/16 to 2019/20: 2.0% to 214,240 tonnes. We have revised up our forecast

for corn demand in both Angola and Namibia for each full-year period through to the end of our forecast

period in 2019/20 and starting in 2016-17.

- Throughout the long term, we believe Angolan sugar output has strong potential following years of flat

production growth through to 2015/16. The increased presence of the private sector has improved

production methods and encouraged the use of fertilisers.

South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risk To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 13
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia Corn Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes) 14
Sugar Outlook 15
Latest Updates 15
Table: Angola - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 16
Table: Angola Sugar Production & Consumption, 2014-2020 17
Commodity Price Analysis 18
Global - Commodities Performance And Forecasts 18
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 18
Upstream Analysis 20
Africa GM Outlook 20
Africa Machinery Outlook 27
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 27
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 33
Downstream Analysis 39
Food 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 40
Table: Food Sales (Botswana 2013-2020) 40
Food 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 43
Table: Food Sales (Namibia 2013-2020) 43
Food 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 46
Table: Food Sales (Angola 2013-2020) 47
Regional Overview 50
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Angola 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Angola 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Angola 1990-2025) 59
Demographic Outlook 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Botswana 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Botswana 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Botswana 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Botswana 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Botswana 1990-2025) 64
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Namibia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Namibia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Namibia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Namibia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Namibia 1990-2025) 69
Methodology 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Sector-Specific Methodology 71

List of Tables

Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risk To Outlook
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia Corn Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
Table: Angola - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Angola Sugar Production & Consumption, 2014-2020
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Food Sales (Botswana 2013-2020)
Table: Food Sales (Namibia 2013-2020)
Table: Food Sales (Angola 2013-2020)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Angola 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Angola 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Angola 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Angola 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Angola 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Botswana 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Botswana 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Botswana 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Botswana 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Botswana 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Namibia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Namibia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Namibia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Namibia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Namibia 1990-2025)
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