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BMI View: Increasing incomes and populations will see South West Africa enjoy long-term growth in corn
production. The region will see output growth outpace consumption growth through to the end of our
forecast period in 2019/20. Meanwhile, there will be significant bumps along the way, with the 2015/16
forecast especially poor for Botswana and Namibia. Angola is the exception, where demand for corn is
forecast to outperform output thanks to a steady growth in consumption between 2016/17 and 2019/20
while output levels in the country stagnate. In the sugar sector, we see production in the key market of
Angola beginning to slow throughout the forecast period, as cheap imports from Brazil and China compete
with local production.
Key BMI Forecasts
- Angolan sugar production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 22.6% to 135,200 tonnes. We have revised down
our forecast for sugar production in Angola for 2015/16 and for every full-year period through to the end
of our forecast period in 2019/20.
- Angola corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: -2.8% to 1.4mn tonnes. Insufficient rains during
the cropping season caused widespread crop failure and caused a large-scale slump in output in 2015/16.
Following a sharp decline in output in 2016/17, we expect production growth to ease off through the
duration of our forecast period.
- Angola corn consumption growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 2.4% to 1.84mn tonnes. Namibia corn
consumption growth for 2015/16 to 2019/20: 2.0% to 214,240 tonnes. We have revised up our forecast
for corn demand in both Angola and Namibia for each full-year period through to the end of our forecast
period in 2019/20 and starting in 2016-17.
- Throughout the long term, we believe Angolan sugar output has strong potential following years of flat
production growth through to 2015/16. The increased presence of the private sector has improved
production methods and encouraged the use of fertilisers.