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BMI View: Recently announced plans for large investments into South Korea's renewables sector
underscore the government's ambitions to significantly increase renewables' share in the country's power
mix. While we forecast the sector to experience strong growth rates over the coming decade, we note that
expansion will come on a low base. Moreover, we hold out view that the prevalence of cheaper fuels
(namely coal and nuclear) will pose strong competition to renewables, and restrict the sector from meeting
its full potential.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? In June 2016, Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that it will invest USD36.6bn
into the country's renewable energy sector. Additionally, the ministry aims to increase renewable
portfolio standard to 5% in 2018, up from 3.5% in 2016.
? While we have revised upward our forecast for the country's non-hydro renewables industry, we don't
expect South Korea to achieve its ambitious emissions and renewables targets. We forecast the sector's
total generation to increase from 7.2TWh in 2015 to 18.2TWh in 2025, but non-hydro renewables share
in the total power mix will remain limited, reaching just 2.3% of the total.
? Coming from a relatively low base, we believe that wind sector will demonstrate the strongest growth
rates over the coming decade. Wind sector's capacity is expected to more than quadruple from 869MW in
2015 to 3909MW in 2025. In terms of generation, wind sector is forecast to take over solar as the largest
generator in 2023 and reach a total figure of 9.0TWh by 2025.
? The solar sector will retain the lead in terms of capacity as it expands by 6.7% per annum during the
coming decade, reaching a total of 6,051MW in 2025.