South Korea Renewables Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 31

BMI View: Recently announced plans for large investments into South Korea's renewables sector

underscore the government's ambitions to significantly increase renewables' share in the country's power

mix. While we forecast the sector to experience strong growth rates over the coming decade, we note that

expansion will come on a low base. Moreover, we hold out view that the prevalence of cheaper fuels

(namely coal and nuclear) will pose strong competition to renewables, and restrict the sector from meeting

its full potential.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? In June 2016, Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that it will invest USD36.6bn

into the country's renewable energy sector. Additionally, the ministry aims to increase renewable

portfolio standard to 5% in 2018, up from 3.5% in 2016.

? While we have revised upward our forecast for the country's non-hydro renewables industry, we don't

expect South Korea to achieve its ambitious emissions and renewables targets. We forecast the sector's

total generation to increase from 7.2TWh in 2015 to 18.2TWh in 2025, but non-hydro renewables share

in the total power mix will remain limited, reaching just 2.3% of the total.

? Coming from a relatively low base, we believe that wind sector will demonstrate the strongest growth

rates over the coming decade. Wind sector's capacity is expected to more than quadruple from 869MW in

2015 to 3909MW in 2025. In terms of generation, wind sector is forecast to take over solar as the largest

generator in 2023 and reach a total figure of 9.0TWh by 2025.

? The solar sector will retain the lead in terms of capacity as it expands by 6.7% per annum during the

coming decade, reaching a total of 6,051MW in 2025.

South Korea Renewables Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2015-2021) 5
SWOT 6
Industry Forecast 8
South Korea Renewables Forecast Scenario 8
Latest Updates 8
Structural Trends 8
Table: South Korea Non-Hydro Renewables Generation Forecasts, 2014-2019 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2020-2025) 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2014-2019) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2020-2025) 16
South Korea Renewables Projects Database 17
Table: Top Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 17
Industry Risk Reward Index 18
South Korea Renewables Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 18
Risks 18
Market Overview 20
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 20
Targets 20
Table: Supply Targets For New And Renewable Energies 20
Subsidies 21
Infrastructure 22
Competitive Landscape 23
Korea District Heating Corporation 23
Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power 23
Glossary 25
Table: Glossary Of Terms 25
Methodology 26
Methodology And Sources 26
Industry Forecast Methodology 26
Sources 28
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 28
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 30
Table: Weighting Indicators 31

List of Tables

Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2015-2021)
Table: South Korea Non-Hydro Renewables Generation Forecasts, 2014-2019
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Korea 2020-2025)
Table: Top Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)
Table: Supply Targets For New And Renewable Energies
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators
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