Since the last quarterly report, South Africa’s Department of Tourism has released final tourist arrivals
figures for 2012. These showed overseas (i.e. non-African) arrivals growth of 15.1%, to reach 2,505,762.
Including African arrivals, total arrivals stood at 9,188,368, up by 10.2% y-o-y.
These strong arrivals figures bear out BMI’s continued optimism towards the South African tourism sector
at present. Our forecasts currently call for 9% growth in arrivals over 2013, and a further 36% increase in
arrivals over the 2013-17 period, to reach almost 13.3mn total arrivals.
South Africa Tourism Report Q3 2013
Table Of Contents
BMI Industry View 7
Tourism SWOT 9
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Inbound Tourism 15
Table: South Africa Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017 17
Table: South Africa Inbound Tourism, Top 10 markets by arrivals, 2010-2017 18
Outbound Tourism 18
Table: South Africa Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017 19
Table: South Africa Outbound Tourism, Top 10 countries by departure, 2010-201f 20
Table: South Africa International Tourism Receipts for Transport and Travel, 2010-2017 22
Table: South Africa Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel, 2010-2017 23
Table: South Africa Hotel Accommodation, 2010-2017 24
Table: South Africa Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017 25
Macroeconomic Forecasts 26
Macroeconomic Forecast 26
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR 26
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity 31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 32
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Africa Tourism Risk Rewards Ratings 32
Security Risk Reward Ratings 33
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 35
Market Overview 36
Table: Global Hotel Group Presence in South Africa 38
Table: South Africa Key Infrastructure Projects - Airports 40
Company Profile 41
Tsogo Sun 41
Sun International 44
Regional Overview 46
MEA -Tourism Outlook Q3 2013 46
Underperformers: Political Instability Is Key 47
Overperformers: GCC Leading The Pack 48
Global Industry Overview 51
Table: Total Receipts By Country, 2012-2013, (US$bn) 52
Table: Global Sporting Calendar, 2013-2022 54
Global Assumptions 56
Table: Global Assumptions 57
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y 59
Developed States 60
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts 60
Emerging Markets 62
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts 62
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) 64
Demographic Forecast 65
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 66
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 68
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 69
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 69
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 73
Table: Weighting Of Components 75
List Of Tables
Table: South Africa Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Table: South Africa Inbound Tourism, Top 10 markets by arrivals, 2010-2017
Table: South Africa Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Table: South Africa Outbound Tourism, Top 10 countries by departure, 2010-201f
Table: South Africa International Tourism Receipts for Transport and Travel, 2010-2017
Table: South Africa Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel, 2010-2017
Table: South Africa Hotel Accommodation, 2010-2017
Table: South Africa Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
Table: Africa Tourism Risk Rewards Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings
Table: Global Hotel Group Presence in South Africa
Table: South Africa Key Infrastructure Projects - Airports
Table: Total Receipts By Country, 2012-2013, (US$bn)
Table: Global Sporting Calendar, 2013-2022
Table: Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%)
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
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