South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 07-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 79

BMI View: Major planned overhauls of the country's regulatory and fiscal regimes are a broad positive for

the South African oil and gas sector. However, the pace of reform remains slow, limiting the upside to the

upstream sector over the short to medium term. As a result, despite relatively moderate oil consumption

growth, domestic production will struggle to keep pace with demand, driving a higher dependence on

imports. Our outlook on the downstream segment remains heavily bearish, mainly due to ageing and poorly

efficient refining capacity, weak profitability and limited appetite for investment.

Latest Updates & Key Trends:

? While South Africa does not have a vast proven conventional hydrocarbons reserve base, it holds a

substantial offshore and unconventional potential. However, exploration remains heavily constrained by

regulatory uncertainties and bureaucratic delay. During 2016-2025, oil reserves will see a 59.4% decline

to 5.6mn bbl, while gas reserves are expected to contract by 91.4% to just 2.4bcm.

• South Africa will remain a small producer of oil. Crude oil and lease condensates output is set to peak at

6,140b/d in 2019, before falling back to 5,300b/d in 2025. Other liquids production is forecast to increase

from 141,400b/d in 2015 to 156,200b/d over the same period.

South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Major International Players In South Africa's Offshore 13
Upstream Projects 17
Table: South Africa Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2020) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025) 36
Fuels Trade Forecasts 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk Reward Index 43
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 46
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 49
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 49
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index 52
Market Overview 54
Energy Market Overview 54
Regulatory Structure 54
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Main Fiscal Terms 54
Licensing Regime 55
Licensing Rounds 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: South Africa Main Refineries 56
Oil Pipelines 56
Table: South Africa Main Oil Pipelines 56
Oil Trade Facilities 57
Table: South Africa Main Oil Trading Facilities 57
Gas Pipelines 57
Table: South Africa Main Gas Pipelines 57
Oil Storage Facilities 57
Table: Oil Storage Main Facilities 57
Oil Terminals/Ports 57
Competitive Landscape 58
Competitive Landscape Summary 58
Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors 59
Table: Key Upstream Player 59
Table: Key Downstream Players 59
Company Profile 60
PetroSA 60
Latest Updates 60
Table: Key Financial Data (ZARmn) 61
Regional Overview 62
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 62
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 71
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Source 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 78
Table: Weighting 79

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2020)
Table: Major International Players In South Africa's Offshore
Table: South Africa Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025)
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Main Fiscal Terms
Table: South Africa Main Refineries
Table: South Africa Main Oil Pipelines
Table: South Africa Main Oil Trading Facilities
Table: South Africa Main Gas Pipelines
Table: Oil Storage Main Facilities
Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Key Financial Data (ZARmn)
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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