South Africa Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q3 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 54

BMI View: Bar the country's shipping sector, which is being particularly hindered by weak consumer

demand and declines in coal production, South Africa's freight modes are all expected to post positive

growth in 2016. However, going forward, risks are considerably to the downside. The country's poor

economic outlook, unsustainable structural issues and the depreciation of the rand pose significant

headwinds to overall trade volumes which will, in turn, impact upon the country's various freight modes.

Latest Updates And Forecasts

? We forecast a return to growth in South African road haulage volumes in 2016, but risks to this outlook

are weighted to the downside. Rising unemployment will weigh on the transport of containerised

goods. Nonetheless, road freight is set to be the outperforming freight mode in 2016, with tonnage growth

coming in at 4.6% y-o-y.

? We forecast a return to growth for South African rail freight volumes in 2016, but risks to this outlook are

weighted heavily to the downside given the ongoing issues with electricity generation hampering

manufacturing, rising unemployment holding back private consumption, and a downgrade to our coal

production forecast following news that Anglo Mining is looking to offload some of its assets in the

country. Nonetheless, rail freight volumes will expand by 2.6% to 227.98mn tonnes in 2016.

? Richards Bay, the largest port in terms of gross tonnage throughput, will see volumes decline by 3.2% in

2016 owing to a fall in coal production. Durban, the largest container port in the country, will also see

growth constrained by a weak consumer and ailing manufacturing sector.

? We forecast growth in South African air freight volumes in 2016 to be slow, with the freight mode set to

underperform road and rail. The sector is primarily driven by consumer demand for high-end goods, and

the outlook for this is poor given the rising unemployment in the country. Air freight volumes will grow

by 2.2% in 2016, to reach 1.57mn tonnes.

? 2016 total trade real growth is forecast at 3.5%, while in nominal terms, growth will contract by 15.3% to

USD166.3bn owing primarily to the depreciation of the rand.

South Africa Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q3 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2013-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Freight Transport and Shipping SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Trade Forecast 9
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2013-2020) 12
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2013-2020) 13
Table: Main Import Partners 14
Table: Main Export Partners 14
Road Freight Forecast 16
Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2013-2020) 19
Rail Freight Forecast 20
Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2013-2020) 24
Air Freight Forecast 25
Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2013-2020) 28
Shipping Forecast 29
Table: Major Ports Data (South Africa 2013-2020) 31
Market Overview 34
Company Profile 39
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) 39
Grindrod 43
Demographic Forecast 46
Demographic Outlook 46
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 47
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 47
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 48
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 48
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 49
Methodology 51
Industry Forecast Methodology 51
Sector-Specific Methodology 52
Sources 54

List of Tables

Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2013-2020)
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2013-2020)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2013-2020)
Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2013-2020)
Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2013-2020)
Table: Major Ports Data (South Africa 2013-2020)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
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