South Africa Defence and Security Report Q3 2013

Publisher Name :
Date:26-Jun-2013
No. of pages: 82

Executive Summary
The deaths of 34 miners at the Marikana platinum mine northwest of Johannesburg in August 2012 during a
protest over pay highlighted the risk to South African stability posed by such socio-economic issues as
income inequality, not to mention the ability of the security services to deal proportionately with mass
unrest. For the time being, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) appears capable of keeping a lid on
these national tensions. However, this cannot be taken for granted in the long term.
Socio-economic priorities mean that the government is unlikely to deliver large funding increases to the
South African National Defence Force (SANDF). The government has already revealed defence spending
plans for the next three years which envisage some growth in the defence budget. However, these increases
are not nearly enough to enable the SANDF to meet its procurement and personnel targets, analysts are
warning.

South Africa Defence and Security Report Q3 2013

Table Of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
South Africa Defence SWOT 8
South Africa Security SWOT 10
Political 13
Economic 14
Business Environment 15
Industry Forecast 16
Defence Expenditure 16
Table: Defence Expenditure 17
Table: EXPENDITURE SCENARIO: CHANGING % OF GOV EXPENDITURE (US$mn) 18
Armed Forces 19
Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 19
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) 21
Defence Trade 21
Macroeconomic Forecasts 22
Macroeconomic Forecast 22
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR 22
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity 27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 28
MENA - Security Risk Ratings 28
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 29
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 29
South Africa Security Risk Ratings 30
Market Overview 31
South Africa Defence Market Overview 31
Armed Forces and Government Spending 31
Industry Trends and Developments 41
Weapons of Mass Destruction 42
Arms Trade Overview 43
South Africa Security Overview 43
Domestic Threats 43
Regional Threats 48
Table: US Combat Operations In Africa 54
International Threats 55
Company Profile 56
Aeromod 56
BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa 58
Denel 60
Grintek Defence and Technologies 63
Reutech 65
Thales South Africa 67
Regional Overview 69
Middle East and Africa Defence Overview 69
Military Expenditure 69
Armed Forces 73
Arms Trade 74
Global Industry Overview 77
Global Political Outlook 77
Methodology 80
Defence Industry 81
Sources 82

List Of Tables

Table: Defence Expenditure
Table: EXPENDITURE SCENARIO: CHANGING % OF GOV EXPENDITURE (US$mn)
Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Table: US Combat Operations In Africa
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