South Africa Consumer Electronics Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 12-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 58

BMI projects that the South African consumer electronics market will continue to offer opportunities in

2013, with estimated growth of 11.4%. The latest data on retail sales and credit extended to private

households suggest that the consumer remains in decent shape in spite of indebtedness: retail sales grew

by 8.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June, and credit rose by 7.7% y-o-y in the same month. Combined with

relatively low inflation and low interest rates, customers are spending on bigger ticket items such as PCs

and notebooks, thereby boosting the market. While we acknowledge various vulnerabilities such as high

personal debt levels, adverse weakness in the housing market and subdued levels of private sector credit

extension, in our view a number of factors bode well for consumer spending. The relative buoyancy of the

retail sector was evident in 2012 as retailers reported strong sales of large-screen TV sets, with models in

the ZAR9,000 range proving popular. Overall we hold to our wider view that the consumer electronics

market will continue to enjoy a revival in 2013.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer hardware sales: US$5.4bn in 2012 to US$6.1bn in 2013, +12% in US dollar terms. Forecast

in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to analyst adjustment but migrations to Windows 8 should

provide a boost in 2013.

AV sales: US$1.4bn in 2012 to US$1.6bn in 2013, +9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms

unchanged, with flat-screen TV sets expected to provide the most dynamic development.

Handset sales: US$2.1bn in 2012 to US$2.3bn in 2013, +13% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar

terms unchanged, with smartphones the main revenue growth driver.

Risk/Reward Rating

South Africa's score was 54 out of 100, unchanged from the previous quarter, earning it 6th place in our

MEA CE RRR table. We expect rising penetration of consumer electronics devices such as smartphones

and flat-screen TV sets.

Key Trends & Developments

The South African Department of Education has announced a target to roll out laptops to all

schoolchildren in the country by 2014. The government is looking at various ways to

achieve this, including the use of portable mobile computer labs for schools where there is

no infrastructure. Following a strong recovery in PC shipments in 2011, the market should

remain on an upwards trajectory.

South Africa continues to lag not only in terms of its own previous targets for digital

migration, but also other countries in Africa have surpassed it in the switchover from

analogue to digital broadcasting. The October 2012 date for the switch-on seemed was

missed. With only two years left until South Africa's deadline for digital broadcasting

migration, this should be a driver for sales. Vendors will focus on high-growth, new product

categories such as internet-enabled TV sets and 3D TV.

Increasing smartphone adoption is a key element of South African mobile operator strategy,

and BMI expects sales of around 12.4mn units by 2016. Various applications and content

will drive demand for higher-tier handsets. Around 4mn of South Africa's 10.5mn data

users are understood to be using fully featured smartphones, according to operator estimates.

South Africa Consumer Electronics Report Q1 2013

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
South Africa Consumer Electronics Market SWOT ............................................................................................................................................... 7
South Africa Political SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
South Africa Economic SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................................. 8
South Africa Business Environment SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................. 10
Table: Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings.......................................................................................................................................... 12
Consumer Electronics Market ...................................................................................................................... 13
Computers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................... 13
AV ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Table: AV: Demand, 2010-2017 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Mobile Handsets ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................................... 21
Consumer Electronics Industry ................................................................................................................... 26
Computers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
AV ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: South African Distributors For Leading Brands ...................................................................................................................................... 33
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 34
Consumer Electronics Market ............................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview .............................................................................................................................................................. 34
Government Authorities ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Industry Developments ................................................................................................................................ 37
Macroeconomic Forecast ............................................................................................................................. 39
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ......................................................................................................................................... 41
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 42
Computers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Handsets ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
AV ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 49
Amap ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Sahara Computers .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Demographic Outlook .................................................................................................................................. 52
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)..................................................................................................................... 53
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ............................................................................................................ 54
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .......................................................................................................................... 55
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 56
Electronics Industry ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 56
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOTS Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 6
Sri Lanka Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) SWOT ...................................................................................................................................... 6
Sri Lanka Mobile SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Sri Lanka Political SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Sri Lanka Economic SWOT................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Sri Lanka Business Environment SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................. 10
Risk/Reward Ratings ..................................................................................................................................... 11
Asia Pacific Q113 .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings Q113 .................................................................................................................................. 16
Sri Lanka ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Industry Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................ 18
Mobile ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 ................................................................................. 18
ARPU ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: BMI Telecoms - Blended Mobile ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts (LKR), 2010-2017 ................................................................. 20
Fixed Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22
Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 ........................................................................... 22
Internet .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 ................................................................................ 24
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 26
Mobile ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Regional Perspective .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Sri Lanka Mobile Market Regional Comparison ................................................................................................................................................... 26
Mobile Penetration (%) ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Sri Lanka Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 ..................................................................................................................................... 27
Key Developments.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Mobile Growth ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Market Shares ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Title: Sri Lanka Mobile Market Net Additions (?000), 2009-2012 ....................................................................................................................... 29
Usage (ARPU & MOU) ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services ..................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Value-Added Services Timeline........................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Selected VAS Services .............................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Mobile Operator Data ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Sri Lanka Mobile Market Overview .................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Table: Dialog Axiata .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Table: Mobitel .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Etisalat Lanka.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Airtel Sri Lanka ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Sri Lanka - Hutchison Lanka ................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Mobile Content ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 .......................................................................................................................................................... 40
Fixed Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Table: Sri Lanka Fixed-Line Market, Q411 ........................................................................................................................................................ 46
Provincial Fixed-Line Markets ................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Provincial Distribution of Fixed-Line Phones, Q212 .......................................................................................................................................... 48
Internet and Broadband ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
WiMAX ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................ 54
Networks ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 54
Table: Market Developments .............................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Regulatory Environment............................................................................................................................... 57
Table: Sri Lanka: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ........................................................................................................................ 57
Competition ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 57
Licensing............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 58
Table: Licences Granted Under S.17, Sri Lanka Telecommunications Act 1991 (as amended) ........................................................................... 58
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 59
Key Players .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Table: Key Players - Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector ............................................................................................................................................... 59
Operator Profiles ........................................................................................................................................... 60
Sri Lanka Telecom (SLT) .................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Hutchison Lanka ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 64
Dialog Axiata ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 69
Altobridge: Connecting Remote Communities ......................................................................................................................................................... 69
Altobridge Commercial Deployments ................................................................................................................................................................. 70
Demographic Forecast ................................................................................................................................. 71
Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ................................................................................................................................... 72
Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ........................................................................................................................... 73
Sri Lanka's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ................................................................................................................................................... 74
Sri Lanka's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ........................................................................................................................................ 74
Glossary Of Terms ........................................................................................................................................ 75
Table: Glossary Of Terms ................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 76
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 76
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 76
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................. 78
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................... 78
Ratings System .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
Indicators ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 78
Table: Ratings Indicators ................................................................................................................................................................................... 79
Weighting ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 80
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Table: Taiwan Total Premiums, 2010-2017 .......................................................................................................................................................... 5
Key Insights And Key Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Taiwan Insurance Industry SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Taiwan Political SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Taiwan Economic SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Life Sector Overview .................................................................................................................................... 11
Asia Pacific Life Sector Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11
Table: Asia Pacific Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn).................................................................................................................................... 11
Taiwan Life Sector Update ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Life Industry Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Taiwan Total Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................................. 15
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 16
Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Taiwan Insurance Key Drivers, Demographics, 2010-2017 ..................................................................................................................... 16
Non-Life Sector Overview ............................................................................................................................. 18
Asia Pacific Non-Life Sector Overview .................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Asia Pacific's Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) .......................................................................................................................... 18
Taiwan Non-Life Sector Update ............................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................... 21
Table: Taiwan Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 .................................................................................................................................................. 21
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 22
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ................................................................................................................................................. 25
Political Stability Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings .................................................................................................................................................... 27
Healthcare .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Taiwan: Insurance Coverage ................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Epidemiology ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Motor .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Taiwan's Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Asia Pacific Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ........................................................................................................................................... 34
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 36
Major Players In Taiwan's Insurance Sector ........................................................................................................................................................... 39
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 41
ACE Group ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
AIA Group ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
AIG ...................................................................................................................................................
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