Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 74

BMI View: Crude production in Saudi Arabia continues to grow, as the kingdom looks to balance existing

export commitments with rising demand domestically. Export volumes will be supported by increased oil-togas

switching in the power sector in 2016, with the commissioning of the Wasit gas plant. In order to grow

the role of gas in the longer term, Aramco is targeting development of its vast unconventionals potential.

However, we expect progress here to remain slow, despite an uptick in investment towards R&D. The

outlook for gas consumption is bullish, driven by rising demand from the power and petrochemical sectors.

However, consumption will remain capped by production across our forecast period. Fuels consumption

growth has softened markedly in the YTD, due to the impact of subsidy reform and a weakened

macroeconomic setting.

Latest Updates & Key Trends

? Saudi output will trend gently upwards across the next five years.

? However, we forecast exports to remain flat as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbing

forecast production growth.

? In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power and

industrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited production

growth.

Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Upstream Project Database 13
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuels Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Saudi Arabia Fuel Price Reform, December 2015 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 32
Gas Consumption 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 35
Trade - Oil 36
Crude Oil 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020) 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 39
Refined Fuels 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 42
Structural Trends 42
Industry Risk Reward Index 43
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 50
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview 50
Regulatory Overview 50
Licensing Regime 50
Fiscal Regime 50
Table: Saudi Arabia PCA Main Fiscal Terms 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 51
Oil Refineries 51
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Refineries 51
Oil Terminals/Ports 51
Oil Pipelines 52
Gas Pipelines 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Competitive Landscape Summary 54
Company Profile 55
Saudi Aramco 55
Latest Updates 55
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Saudi Arabia 56
Regional Overview 57
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview 57
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory 57
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 60
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre) 60
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 62
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas 63
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand 65
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade 66
Glossary 67
Table: Glossary Of Terms 67
Methodology 69
Industry Forecast Methodology 69
Source 71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 73
Table: Weighting 74

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020)
Table: Upstream Project Database
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
Table: Saudi Arabia Fuel Price Reform, December 2015
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Saudi Arabia PCA Main Fiscal Terms
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Refineries
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Saudi Arabia
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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