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BMI View: Crude production in Saudi Arabia continues to grow, as the kingdom looks to balance existing
export commitments with rising demand domestically. Export volumes will be supported by increased oil-togas
switching in the power sector in 2016, with the commissioning of the Wasit gas plant. In order to grow
the role of gas in the longer term, Aramco is targeting development of its vast unconventionals potential.
However, we expect progress here to remain slow, despite an uptick in investment towards R&D. The
outlook for gas consumption is bullish, driven by rising demand from the power and petrochemical sectors.
However, consumption will remain capped by production across our forecast period. Fuels consumption
growth has softened markedly in the YTD, due to the impact of subsidy reform and a weakened
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? Saudi output will trend gently upwards across the next five years.
? However, we forecast exports to remain flat as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbing
forecast production growth.
? In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power and
industrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited production