Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 46

BMI View: We maintain our long-held view in our Q3 2016 report update that Saudi Arabia will

increasingly be dependent on grains imports, as the country has decided to phase out domestic

grains production in a desperate bid to preserve the country's water supply. The government has not

abandoned its strategy of self-sufficiency in poultry and has been ramping up incentives to expand

production capacity. This strategy has paid off, as the three major producers in the sector have all started

heavy investment initiatives. We believe Saudi Arabia will find sufficient grains supply from the Black Sea

region and the EU to supply its meat and food processing industry in the coming years. However, the

country will remain highly vulnerable to volatile grains and feed prices. Recent spikes in feed prices have

turned us more cautious on margins for dairy and livestock producers in the country, especially those that

import inputs from abroad. The national dairy sector is set to witness strong growth as the market remains

a heavy consumer of dairy products. Dairy production will also grow as foreign investors use Saudi Arabia,

the world's fifth largest dairy importer, as a regional hub for manufacturing and distribution of halal dairy

butters and cheeses.

Key Forecasts

? Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -100% to 0 tonnes. Wheat production will be almost completely

phased out in the coming years and Saudi Arabia will become entirely dependent on imports for its grain

needs.

? Beef consumption growth to 2020: 3.52% average y-o-y to 227,000 tonnes. Beef consumption will not

grow as fast as poultry in the coming years, as beef meat remains more expensive than chicken. However,

the expansion in GDP per capita and population will support a moderate increase in beef demand.

? Poultry consumption growth to 2020: 3.86% average y-o-y to 1.87mn tonnes. This growth will be

driven by poultry as the most preferred form of meat in tandem with rising prosperity and a growing

national appetite.

? Poultry production growth to 2020: 6.3% average y-o-y to 950,000 tonnes. This spectacular growth

will mainly come from the effects of three major poultry farms' (al-Watania, al-Fakieh and Almarai)

capacity expansion, along with continuous government support.

? BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD14.4bn in 2016, up 2.2% compared with the expected

2015 level; forecast to increase by 6.0% on average per year between 2016 and 2020.

? 2016 real GDP growth: 1.0% y-o-y, down from 3.4% expected in 2015, projected to average 1.7% from

2016 to 2020.

? 2016 consumer price inflation: 4.0% average, up from 2.2% expected in 2015, projected to average

4.0% from 2016 to 2020.

Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Saudi Arabia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 14
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020) 17
Livestock Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Saudi Arabia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 20
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020) 22
Dairy Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: Saudi Arabia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020) 26
Commodities Price Analysis 27
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 27
Downstream Analysis 29
Food 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 30
Table: Food Sales (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) 31
Regional Overview 33
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview 33
Competitive Landscape 39
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 39
Demographic Forecast 40
Demographic Outlook 40
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 41
Table: Key Population Ratios (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 41
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Population By Age Group % (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 43
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sector-Specific Methodology 46

List of Tables

Table: Saudi Arabia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020)
Table: Saudi Arabia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020)
Table: Saudi Arabia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts
Table: Food Sales (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020)
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025)
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