Russia Retail Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 12-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 87

The Russian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm

concerns about the impact on Russia's economic outlook of the risk of capital flight and

overdependence on oil.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Russian retail market while minimising

investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing crisis in the country's main export market,

Europe, on the Russian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the

short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading

players in the Russian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local

market.

Russian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 44% between 2013 and 2016, compared

with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes third in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe

(CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms significantly for Risk.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in

growth terms, with sales forecast to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast

period, by almost 132% to US$231.46bn by 2016. This would take MGR's share of the overall food

market from 42.1% in 2013 to 80.8% by 2016.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Russian government

has committed to spending billions on infrastructure over the next 10 years, particularly

railroads and highways, which should translate to better logistics for expanding retailers.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

BMI's below-consensus forecast for Russia's 2012 real GDP growth of 3.4% appears to be well

placed as leading indicators point towards a further slowdown in economic growth. We have

revised down our forecast for 2013 real GDP growth in Russia to 3.4% from 3.6% previously.

This comes on the heels of a stark shift by the central bank towards monetary policy tightening,

a bias we expect to remain intact over the coming months.

BMI's expectation for private consumption to weaken going into 2013 underpins our view for

weaker headline growth. Private consumption has been a key driver of economic growth in

Russia over the past two years. Falling unemployment and rising disposable incomes have seen

household consumption growth average 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H112, up from 6.1% in the

same period of 2011. However, going forward, tighter access to credit, via higher interest rates

and the likelihood of more prudent lending practices by banks, will translate to weaker

household consumption.

Leading indicators suggest that these dynamics have already begun to feed through to weaker

consumption - real retail trade slowed into H212, coming in at 4.4% y-o-y in August, down

substantially from the 7.4 % racked up back in January. As a result of these combined dynamics,

we forecast private consumption to increase by 4.2% in 2013, down from our forecast of 4.9% in

2012.

Russia Retail Report Q1 2013

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 7
Russia Retail Business Environment SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
Russia Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Russia Economic SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Market Overview ......................................................................................................................... 10
Current Trends ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Key Players ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................ 20
Consumer Outlook.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Retail Growth Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016............................................................................................................................................................ 22
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f ....................................................................................................................................... 25
Macroeconomic Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Economic Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Regional Retail Outlook .............................................................................................................. 29
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................. 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016 .............................................................................................................................. 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated) ............................................................................................ 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 .............................................................................................................. 31
Regional Retail Trends ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................. 40
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings ......................................................................................................................................... 40
Russia's Retail Rating ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Limits To Potential Returns ................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Risks To Realisation Of Returns ........................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................... 43
Russia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Market Overview...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets, 2003-2011 .................................................................................... 45
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, 2003-2011 ......................................................................................................... 45
Table: Average Sales Value per Retail Outlet - 2011........................................................................................................................................... 45
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016...................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type................................................................................................................................................... 48
Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 .................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Industry Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 49
Consumer Electronics ................................................................................................................ 51
Russia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................ 51
Market Overview...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Computers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
AV ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Mobile Handsets ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016 ........................................................................................................................................................ 59
Three Most Popular Models In Different Pricing Categories In MTS Retail Network Q311, % Of Total Units Sold ................................................ 62
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Consumer Electronics Market ............................................................................................................................................................................. 66
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016 ............................................................................................................................................. 66
Industry Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 68
Automotives ............................................................................................................................... 71
Russia Autos Industry SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Domestic Sales .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Table: Autos Sales, 2010-2016 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 71
Production ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Table: Autos Production, 2010-2016 ................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Table: Autos Trade, 2010-2016 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Passenger Cars ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 79
Table: Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2016 ......................................................................................................................................................... 79
Demographic Outlook................................................................................................................. 81
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................................................................................................................... 82
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ....................................................................................................................... 83
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .............................................................................................................................................. 84
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .................................................................................................................................... 84
BMI Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................................... 85
Sources ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 86Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Table: Slovakia Total Premiums, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................................ 5
Key Insights And Key Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovakia Insurance Industry SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovakia Political SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovakia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Life Sector Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 9
Central And Eastern Europe Life Sector Overview .................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Central And Eastern European Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ......................................................................................................... 9
Slovakia Life Sector Update ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Life Industry Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Slovakia Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................................ 13
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 13
Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Slovakia Insurance Key Drivers, Demographics, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................... 14
Non-Life Sector Overview ............................................................................................................................. 16
Central And Eastern Europe Non-Life Sector Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Central And Eastern European Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ............................................................................................... 16
Slovakia Non-Life Sector Update ............................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................... 20
Table: Slovakia Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................................ 20
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 21
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Slovakia Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts 2010-2017 ....................................................................................................................... 23
Political Stability Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Healthcare .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Epidemiology ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: Slovakia Insurance Key Drivers - Disease Adjusted Life Years, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................ 30
Motor .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Slovakia's Insurance Risk/Reward Rating ............................................................................................................................................... 33
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 35
Major Players In Slovakia's Insurance Sector ......................................................................................................................................................... 36
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 37
Achmea ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
AEGON ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Allianz ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
AXA ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
BNP Paribas Cardif ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
ERGO ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Generali PPF Holding ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 54
Groupama ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
MetLife ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 62
QBE Insurance Group ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 65
UNIQA Group ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Vienna Insurance Group ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Country Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................... 75
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ........................................................................................................................... 76
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .................................................................................................................. 77
Table: Slovakia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ......................................................................................................................................... 78
Table: Slovakia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ............................................................................................................................... 78
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 79
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................... 80
Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ..................................................................................................................... 81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators........................................................................................................................................................................... 82Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Table: Total Premiums, 2010-2017 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Key Insights And Key Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Slovenia Insurance Industry SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovenia Political SWOT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Slovenia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Slovenia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Life Sector Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 10
Central And Eastern Europe Life Sector Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Central And Eastern European Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ....................................................................................................... 10
Slovenia Life Sector Update ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Life Industry Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 15
Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Demographics, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................. 15
Non-Life Sector Overview............................................................................................................................. 17
Central And Eastern Europe Non-Life Sector Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Central And Eastern European Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ............................................................................................... 17
Slovenia Non-Life Sector Update ............................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................... 22
Table: Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................................................................... 22
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 23
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Table: Slovenia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016................................................................................................................................................ 26
Table: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017.................................................................................................................................... 26
Political Stability Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Healthcare .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Epidemiology ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Disease Adjusted Life Years, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................. 33
Motor .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Slovenia's Insurance Risk/Reward Rating................................................................................................................................................ 37
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................. 38
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 39
Main Players In Slovenia's Insurance Sector ........................................................................................................................................................... 40
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 42
Allianz ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
ERGO ...............................................................................................................................
  • Italy Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 60
    BMI View: Strong domestic retailers, especially in the clothing segment, and a modest economic outlook will limit room for new market entrants throughout our forecast period to 2020. Nonetheless, bright spots do exist, including budget brands - as highlighted by the recent market entry of Primark and the success of cosmetics brand Kiko - and online retailing, which is slowly catching up with Western European peers. Key Views & Developments ? Primark opened its first......
  • Peru Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 62
    BMI View: Over our forecast period to 2020, we believe Peru's retail sector will continue experiencing constant growth, stemming from substantial household spending growth. Positive investing into the development of retail space such as shopping malls will boost the growth outlook for modern retailing and increase Peru's attractiveness to foreign retailers looking to expand in the region. Key Trends & Developments ? Pedro Pablo Kuczynski won the runoff of the Peruvi......
  • Uganda Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 58
    BMI View: We expect growing investment in Uganda's retail sector over our forecast period to be largely driven by essential spending, stemming from low income households driving spending. The proportion of essential and non-essential spending throughout the end of our forecast period to 2020 will remain largely unchanged, on the back of marginal growth in disposable incomes. In light of this, prospect for formalisation will dominantly be in the food and drink segment.......
  • Czech Republic Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 64
    BMI View: We hold a bullish outlook for the Czech Republic's retail sector in 2017 and over the remainder of our forecast period to 2020. While the market is highly competitive, particularly in key categories such as mass grocery retail and household goods, rising incomes will drive demand for higher-quality goods and services across the board. Key Trends & Developments ? We forecast that total household spending will increase by 9.4% y-o-y in 2017. We project a sli......
  • India Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 68
    BMI View: For the second consecutive quarter, landmark government policies have had a major impact on retailers and their ease of doing business in the country. For example, in November, the government cancelled circulation of INR500 and INR1,000 notes, requesting that they be traded in for smaller bills. This will lead to an immediate drop in sales for retailers as consumers queue up to trade in notes, however, over the longer term this will benefit e-wallet platforms, c......
  • Argentina Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 65
    BMI View: Weak purchasing power on the back of high inflation and a significant depreciation in the Argentine peso will undermine household spending over 2016. However, over 2017, as inflationary pressures subside, due to the effects of subsidy cuts fading, and the peso appreciates, we expect household spending to rebound into positive territory. Furthermore, a rebound in economic growth will result in a marked improvement in investor sentiment and the labour market which......
  • Australia Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 65
    BMI View: Australia's retail market benefits from its sophisticated nature as well as a high earning consumer group. However, through to 2020, we believe the country's slowing consumer sentiment will shift consumption demand towards affordability, which will slow growth for non-essential spending over the coming quarters. Changing consumption patterns will drive the growth of online retailing as industry maturity limits new long-term growth prospects. Key Views And ......
  • Germany Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 64
    BMI View: Germany is already one of the most attractive Retail markets in the world, due to its large urbanised population and high spending power. This has made it easy for retail companies to target large numbers of consumers in cities and towns throughout the country and with a strong consumer outlook. This should only serve to increase our bullish view. With incoming foreign investment from large companies such as Topshop, there is a risk of oversaturation and too muc......
  • Hong Kong Retail Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 69
    BMI View: A stark decline in tourists from Mainland China and negative wealth effects from a correction in real estate prices will negatively affect Hong Kong's retail sector. We expect luxury retailers to be hit the hardest as Chinese consumers account for a large proportion of luxury sales in the special administration region. Domestic consumption growth will slow, however, high incomes will buoy the retail sector. Key Views And Developments ? According to Hong Ko......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs