Russia Retail Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date:12-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 87

The Russian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm
concerns about the impact on Russia’s economic outlook of the risk of capital flight and
overdependence on oil.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Russian retail market while minimising
investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing crisis in the country’s main export market,
Europe, on the Russian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the
short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Russian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local
market.
Russian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 44% between 2013 and 2016, compared
with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes third in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms significantly for Risk.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in
growth terms, with sales forecast to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast
period, by almost 132% to US$231.46bn by 2016. This would take MGR’s share of the overall food
market from 42.1% in 2013 to 80.8% by 2016.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Russian government
has committed to spending billions on infrastructure over the next 10 years, particularly
railroads and highways, which should translate to better logistics for expanding retailers.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
? BMI’s below-consensus forecast for Russia’s 2012 real GDP growth of 3.4% appears to be well
placed as leading indicators point towards a further slowdown in economic growth. We have
revised down our forecast for 2013 real GDP growth in Russia to 3.4% from 3.6% previously.
This comes on the heels of a stark shift by the central bank towards monetary policy tightening,
a bias we expect to remain intact over the coming months.
? BMI’s expectation for private consumption to weaken going into 2013 underpins our view for
weaker headline growth. Private consumption has been a key driver of economic growth in
Russia over the past two years. Falling unemployment and rising disposable incomes have seen
household consumption growth average 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H112, up from 6.1% in the
same period of 2011. However, going forward, tighter access to credit, via higher interest rates
and the likelihood of more prudent lending practices by banks, will translate to weaker
household consumption.
? Leading indicators suggest that these dynamics have already begun to feed through to weaker
consumption – real retail trade slowed into H212, coming in at 4.4% y-o-y in August, down
substantially from the 7.4 % racked up back in January. As a result of these combined dynamics,
we forecast private consumption to increase by 4.2% in 2013, down from our forecast of 4.9% in
2012.

Russia Retail Report Q1 2013

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 7
Russia Retail Business Environment SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
Russia Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Russia Economic SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Market Overview ......................................................................................................................... 10
Current Trends ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Key Players ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................ 20
Consumer Outlook.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Retail Growth Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016............................................................................................................................................................ 22
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f ....................................................................................................................................... 25
Macroeconomic Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Economic Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Regional Retail Outlook .............................................................................................................. 29
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................. 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016 .............................................................................................................................. 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated) ............................................................................................ 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 .............................................................................................................. 31
Regional Retail Trends ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................. 40
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings ......................................................................................................................................... 40
Russia's Retail Rating ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Limits To Potential Returns ................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Risks To Realisation Of Returns ........................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................... 43
Russia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Market Overview...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets, 2003-2011 .................................................................................... 45
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, 2003-2011 ......................................................................................................... 45
Table: Average Sales Value per Retail Outlet - 2011........................................................................................................................................... 45
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016...................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type................................................................................................................................................... 48
Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 .................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Industry Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 49
Consumer Electronics ................................................................................................................ 51
Russia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................ 51
Market Overview...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Computers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
AV ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Mobile Handsets ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016 ........................................................................................................................................................ 59
Three Most Popular Models In Different Pricing Categories In MTS Retail Network Q311, % Of Total Units Sold ................................................ 62
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Consumer Electronics Market ............................................................................................................................................................................. 66
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016 ............................................................................................................................................. 66
Industry Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 68
Automotives ............................................................................................................................... 71
Russia Autos Industry SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Domestic Sales .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Table: Autos Sales, 2010-2016 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 71
Production ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Table: Autos Production, 2010-2016 ................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Table: Autos Trade, 2010-2016 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Passenger Cars ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 79
Table: Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2016 ......................................................................................................................................................... 79
Demographic Outlook................................................................................................................. 81
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................................................................................................................... 82
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ....................................................................................................................... 83
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .............................................................................................................................................. 84
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .................................................................................................................................... 84
BMI Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................................... 85
Sources ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 86Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Table: Slovakia Total Premiums, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................................ 5
Key Insights And Key Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovakia Insurance Industry SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovakia Political SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovakia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Life Sector Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 9
Central And Eastern Europe Life Sector Overview .................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Central And Eastern European Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ......................................................................................................... 9
Slovakia Life Sector Update ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Life Industry Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Slovakia Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................................ 13
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 13
Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Slovakia Insurance Key Drivers, Demographics, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................... 14
Non-Life Sector Overview ............................................................................................................................. 16
Central And Eastern Europe Non-Life Sector Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Central And Eastern European Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ............................................................................................... 16
Slovakia Non-Life Sector Update ............................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................... 20
Table: Slovakia Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................................ 20
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 21
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Slovakia Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts 2010-2017 ....................................................................................................................... 23
Political Stability Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Healthcare .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Epidemiology ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: Slovakia Insurance Key Drivers - Disease Adjusted Life Years, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................ 30
Motor .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Slovakia's Insurance Risk/Reward Rating ............................................................................................................................................... 33
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 35
Major Players In Slovakia's Insurance Sector ......................................................................................................................................................... 36
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 37
Achmea ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
AEGON ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Allianz ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
AXA ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
BNP Paribas Cardif ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
ERGO ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Generali PPF Holding ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 54
Groupama ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
MetLife ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 62
QBE Insurance Group ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 65
UNIQA Group ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Vienna Insurance Group ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Country Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................... 75
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ........................................................................................................................... 76
Table: Slovakia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .................................................................................................................. 77
Table: Slovakia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ......................................................................................................................................... 78
Table: Slovakia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ............................................................................................................................... 78
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 79
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................... 80
Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ..................................................................................................................... 81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators........................................................................................................................................................................... 82Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Table: Total Premiums, 2010-2017 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Key Insights And Key Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Slovenia Insurance Industry SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovenia Political SWOT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Slovenia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Slovenia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Life Sector Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 10
Central And Eastern Europe Life Sector Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Central And Eastern European Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ....................................................................................................... 10
Slovenia Life Sector Update ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Life Industry Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 15
Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Demographics, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................. 15
Non-Life Sector Overview............................................................................................................................. 17
Central And Eastern Europe Non-Life Sector Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Central And Eastern European Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ............................................................................................... 17
Slovenia Non-Life Sector Update ............................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................... 22
Table: Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................................................................... 22
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections ................................................................................................................................................ 23
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Table: Slovenia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016................................................................................................................................................ 26
Table: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017.................................................................................................................................... 26
Political Stability Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Healthcare .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Epidemiology ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Disease Adjusted Life Years, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................. 33
Motor .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Slovenia's Insurance Risk/Reward Rating................................................................................................................................................ 37
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................. 38
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 39
Main Players In Slovenia's Insurance Sector ........................................................................................................................................................... 40
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 42
Allianz ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
ERGO ...............................................................................................................................
  • Challenges in the Tourism Industry in Thailand
    Thailand has always been a popular tourist destination and tourism provides a major boost to the country’s economy. Bangkok, Hua Hin, Krabi, Samui, Phuket and Cha Am are some of the most attractive tourist destinations in the country. In 2012, Thailand had a very high number of arrivals. Even the number of Thai citizens who [...]
  • Future of the US Consumer Electronics Market
    The market for consumer electronics has been growing steadily. Some of the factors that are contributing to the growth in the market are technological advancement, rise in disposable income and increasing demand for new products. During 2012, consumer electronics market in the US demonstrated positive expansion, although the growth rate slowed down considerably following the [...]
  • Overview of the Global Retail Market
    The global retail industry continued to grow despite the difficult economic conditions in the world. In the fiscal year of 2011, sales-weighted, currency-adjusted revenue rose by 5.1% to $4.271 trillion for the world’s top 250 retailers. According to GRDI (Global Retail Development Index), in 2013 Brazil occupied the top spot in retail development. Chile and [...]
  • Bright Future Predicted for the Tourism Industry in Singapore
    Travel and tourism industry in Singapore has been growing at a steady rate and is considered to be a major contributor to the economic growth of the country. In 2012, Singapore’s IVA (International Visitors Arrivals) reached a record high of 14.5 million, with a growth rate of 10.1% year-on-year. In recent years, inbound travel to [...]
  • Potential of Staffing Market in United States
    The staffing industry places individuals into contract, temporary and permanent positions in firms around the world. Major staffing markets include France, Spain, Italy and Japan as well as many emerging markets. Temporary staffing around the world has been growing, but in US temporary market has been flat since 2006. The majority of staffing revenue majorly [...]
  • Diagnostic X-ray Imaging Market worth $4.0 billion by 2020
  • GlobalData estimates that the global diagnostic X-ray imaging market, worth $2.4 billion in 2012, will reach almost $4.0 billion by 2020, increasing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.7% during the forecast period. Many players are active in …

  • Graft-Versus-Host Disease Market Forecast to 2023
  • Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a common complication of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) that occurs when the donated (graft) cells are rejected and attack the host’s cells as foreign. GVHD can progress from mild to severe forms as either …

  • Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) Treatment Market worth $3.3 billion by 2018
  • New Entrants to Boost Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Treatment Market Value to $3.3 Billion by 2018, says GlobalData. The introduction of several new drugs will accelerate growth in the Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) treatment market, from $1.4 billion in 2013 to …

  • Global Biosimilars Market to Grow at a CAGR of 8.3%, to reach $262 billion by 2019
  • Lucrative Biosimilars Space to Erode Biologics Market from 2019, says GlobalData The increasing prevalence of biosimilars will have a noticeably negative impact on the biologics market beyond 2019, despite an initial projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.3%, taking …

  • Saudi Pharmaceutical Market worth $5.9 billion by 2020
  • A high burden of chronic diseases, improving regulatory guidelines and the launch of new products will provide the necessary impetus for the growth of the pharmaceutical market in Saudi Arabia The Saudi pharmaceutical market is one of the largest markets …

  • Russia Retail Report Q3 2014
    Published: 23-Jul-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 64
    BMI View: Russia's retail market is an extremely attractive investment prospect, with an increasingly affluent population leading to projected household spending growth of 6.7% over 2014-2018. International chains in particular are eager to cash in on Russia's increasing purchasing power, with 17 international brands having already announced plans to enter Moscow's retail market by the end of 2014. However, economic growth continues to be below the global average, with some areas, such as the be......
  • Global Online Retailing, 2013-2018 – Market Dynamics, Online Trends and Competitive Landscape
    Published: 20-Jul-2014        Price: US $4950 Onwards        Pages: 147
    SummaryThe “Global Online Retailing, 2013-2018” report, published by Conlumino, provides an analysis of current and forecast market data of retail sales in different category groups in online retail channel across the globe. In addition, it covers information on key technology trends, online trends in major countries and payment preferences of consumers. Also focuses major retailers across the regions, with an emphasis on innovative retailers in the online retail space.Key Findings ......
  • United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q3 2014
    Published: 16-Jul-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 65
    BMI View: The UAE retail sector is forecast to continue to grow over the next few years, with strong underlying economic growth, expatriate wealth and Dubai's growing importance as a fashion hub resulting in a strong rise in household spending across all retail subsectors. The opening of The Galleria in Abu Dhabi has also brought more luxury brands to the emirate. We are particularly positive about the growth prospects for clothing and footwear; however, we expect by far the highest proportion o......
  • Mobile Commerce and Payments in Retail POS and Shopping
    Published: 11-Jul-2014        Price: US $2000 Onwards        Pages: 85
    Report OverviewOnline shopping is taking a toll on bricks and motor merchants.  However, there are technologies and solutions to deal with the practice of showrooming - the practice of examining merchandise in a traditional brick and mortar retail store, and then buying it online at a lower price.These technologies and solutions include mobile marketing and advertising, mobile shopping applications, social networking, referral sales programs, presence and location detection, embedded en......
  • Bulgaria Retail Report Q3 2014
    Published: 11-Jul-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 59
    BMI View: A relatively immature retail sector will continue to provide investors with opportunities to secure 'catch-up' growth, while February retail sales data also provides cause for optimism, and as such, risks to our retail forecasts are weighted to the upside. Nonetheless, a modest economic growth forecast for 2014, still-high unemployment levels and a very weak demographic picture continue to dominate our forecasts and ensure that Bulgaria remains at the foot of our regional Risk/Reward R......
  • Kuwait Retail Report Q3 2014
    Published: 11-Jul-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 64
    BMI View: A favourable long-term economic outlook, a sophisticated consumer base and high levels of disposable income are likely to result in a strong rise in household spending in Kuwait over the next few years, boding well for the health of the retail sector. Kuwait's volatile political situation is the only downside risk to economic activity. We are particularly positive about the future growth prospects for communications and personal care; however, we expect the highest proportion of the ho......
  • Peru Retail Report Q3 2014
    Published: 11-Jul-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 63
    BMI View: Peru's retail market is experiencing rapid growth, which is attracting a plethora of international retailers. An expanding middle class, easier access to credit, smaller households and increasing urbanisation are driving this trend. Peru's economic growth trajectory is generally positive. We see growth coming in at 5.2% in 2014, and hovering around that level for the rest of the forecast period ending in 2018. Meanwhile, positive underlying trends, such as a steady increase in real wag......
  • Serbia Retail Report Q3 2014
    Published: 11-Jul-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 68
    BMI View: The retail market in Serbia continues to struggle in the short term, although medium term growth reveals opportunity for later investment. The country comes second to last out of 11 countries in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, highlighting its weak performance relative to its peers. Although Serbia is not a member of the EU, its ongoing efforts to join and close trade ties with member nations help bring long-term growth prospects to the nation. BMI forecast......
  • Food Retail: Global Industry Guide
    Published: 2-Jul-2014        Price: US $1495 Onwards        Pages: 294
    IntroductionGlobal Food retail industry guide provides top-line qualitative and quantitative summary information including: market size (value 2009-13, and forecast to 2018). The guide also contains descriptions of the leading players including key financial metrics and analysis of competitive pressures within the market.Features and benefitsSave time carrying out entry-level research by identifying the size, growth, major segments, and leading players in the global food retail mark......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs