Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 115

BMI View: Oil production continues to outperform as a weak rouble allows for maintained capex and

lower operating costs. Gas production has been steady though exports, particularly to Europe, are up 14%

over H116.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil & gas sector are:

? Crude oil and condensate production averaged 10.87mn b/d in H116.

? Lukoil has begun development drilling on the Vladimir Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea and is

targeting first oil by the end of the year. Plateau production is due to reach 120,000b/d.

? Rosneft is moving forward with exploration in the Lisyansky and potentially the Magadan-1 block in the

Sea of Okhotsk over the summer.

• BP (49%) has committed up to USD300mn to the Yermak-Neftegaz exploration joint venture with

Rosneft (51%). The focus of exploration will be Yenisey-Khatanga and Western Siberia.

• Russian gas production over H116 was 4bcm lower than H115.

• Gas exports to Europe, however, increased 10.9bcm to 84.9bcm in H116.

• Train 1 of the Yamal LNG project is reportedly 70% complete and the USD19bn financing has been

approved.

• The finance minister expects oil export duty to drop to the planned 30% in 2017, from 42% currently.

• Overall refinery throughput has reduced around 3.3% in H116 over H115.

• Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production remains stable, though fuel oil output has reduced over H116 as

deeper refining capabilities improve.

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Russia - Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Russia Oil Commitments To China 35
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2014-2019) 37
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2020-2025) 37
Upstream Production - Gas 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2020-2025) 42
Refining 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Major Refinery Upgrades Completed And Underdevelopment 45
Table: Crude And Fuel Export Duty Changes Now Frozen At 2015 Levels 46
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2014-2019) 47
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2020-2025) 47
Refined Fuels Consumption 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 48
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2014-2019) 50
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2020-2025) 50
Gas Consumption 51
Latest Updates 51
Structural Trends 51
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2014-2019) 53
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2020-2025) 53
Trade - Oil 54
Latest Updates 54
Structural Trends: Crude Oil Trade 54
Table: Russia - Oil Commitments To China 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 57
Structural Trends: Refined Products Trade 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) 59
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 60
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 60
Latest Updates 60
Structural Trends 60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) 64
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 64
Industry Risk/Reward Index 65
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 65
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 65
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 66
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 69
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 69
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 72
Russia Risk/Reward Index 73
Upstream Index - Rewards 73
Upstream Index - Risks 73
Table: Russia RRI 74
Downstream Index 74
Market Overview 75
Russia Energy Market Overview 75
Regulatory Structure 75
Fiscal Regime 75
Table: Export Duty 77
Licensing Regime 78
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 80
Oil Refineries 80
Table: Major Refineries - Russia 80
Table: Russian Refinery Upgrades 82
Oil Terminals/Ports 82
Table: Russian Oil Ports 82
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 83
Table: Current And Proposed LNG Terminals 83
LNG Import Terminal 84
Planned Oil & Gas Pipelines 84
Table: Major Proposed International Pipelines 84
Competitive Landscape 85
Table: Russian Refining Capacity By Player 86
Company Profile 87
Gazprom 87
Latest Updates 87
Table: Major Current Assets 88
Table: Over 200bcm Of Future Growth Assets 89
Table: Gazprom - Key Financial Data 89
Rosneft 91
Latest Updates 91
Table: Major Assets 92
Table: Rosneft Revenues & EBITDA, RUBbn 93
Lukoil 95
Latest Updates 95
Table: Major Assets 96
Table: Key Financial Data 97
Novatek 98
Latest Updates 98
Table: Major Assets 99
Table: Novatek - Key Financial Data 100
Regional Overview 101
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 101
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 101
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 102
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 103
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 104
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 105
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 106
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 107
Glossary 108
Table: Glossary Of Terms 108
Methodology 110
Industry Forecast Methodology 110
Source 112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 114
Table: Weighting 115

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020)
Table: Russia - Major Upstream Projects
Table: Russia Oil Commitments To China
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: Major Refinery Upgrades Completed And Underdevelopment
Table: Crude And Fuel Export Duty Changes Now Frozen At 2015 Levels
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: Russia - Oil Commitments To China
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Russia RRI
Table: Export Duty
Table: Major Refineries - Russia
Table: Russian Refinery Upgrades
Table: Russian Oil Ports
Table: Current And Proposed LNG Terminals
Table: Major Proposed International Pipelines
Table: Russian Refining Capacity By Player
Table: Major Current Assets
Table: Over 200bcm Of Future Growth Assets
Table: Gazprom - Key Financial Data
Table: Major Assets
Table: Rosneft Revenues & EBITDA, RUBbn
Table: Major Assets
Table: Key Financial Data
Table: Major Assets
Table: Novatek - Key Financial Data
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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