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BMI View: Much of Russia's non-life segment is vulnerable to weakness in volume growth as a result of
deterioration in the economy. It is also likely that some insurers will suffer as a result of price competition.
The non-life segment continues to be dominated by health insurance, which consists mainly of Compulsory
Medical Expense Insurance (CMEI) covers. Neither the health insurance sub-sector, nor the non-life
segment as a whole, appear set to grow in real terms. The structural constraints facing the life insurance
segment are immense, and will likely not be resolved during the forecast period: life insurance will likely
remain at an nascent level of development in 2020.
Key Updates And Forecasts
? We have left our forecasts for the life segment largely unchanged. The segment is likely to remain at an
embryonic level of development thanks to the structural challenges, which will prevail through the
forecast period. The population is not growing. Too many households cannot afford the life insurers'
offerings. Rich households tend not to use life insurance products offered by Russian insurers. Above all,
there remains a lack of trust in financial institutions. Non-life premiums are not growing in real terms.
We have revised down our forecasts. This is because health insurance premiums in 2015 were
RUR1,278bn, rather than the RUR1,553bn that we had been looking for. This matters, because the health
insurance sub-sector accounts for over half of the premiums that are written in the non-life segment.