Russia Autos Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 41

BMI View: Declining real wages coupled with high inflation will drag on passenger vehicle sales as

consumer purchasing power is eroded. Although we maintain a broadly negative outlook for the domestic

vehicle industry to 2020 as it remains below its previous peak level, total vehicle sales will return to positive

growth in 2017 and continue growing to 2020.

Key Views

? Falling real wages, due to decreasing gross wages, and working hours alongside high inflation will all

weigh on consumer purchasing power and confidence leading to faster sales declines in passenger cars

than in commercial vehicles.

? The renewed scrappage scheme and other industry subsidies will help the market find its floor in 2016

but will be far less effective than in previous years.

? Pricing pressures to remain high due to costly supply chain restructuring towards local suppliers and the

introduction of Euro 5 standards.

Russia Autos Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Key Views 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 10
Latest Developments 10
Structural Trends 10
Passenger Vehicles 22
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 22
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers 22
Key Players 22
Table: Light Vehicle Sales By Brand, January-July, Units 22
Commercial Vehicles 23
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 23
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers 23
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Western Stability A Winner For Value-Added Production 25
Hungary A Potential Mover 26
Turkey On The Radar 26
Company Profile 27
AvtoVaz 27
Ford Motor 28
General Motors Company 29
Regional Overview 30
Western Europe 30
Table: Western Europe - Autos Production Investments 30
Spanish Competitiveness Comes With Risks 31
New Models Address Regional Demand 31
IIA Restart Will Be Slow 31
Demographic Forecast 33
Demographic Outlook 33
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 34
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 34
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 35
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 35
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 36
Methodology 38
Industry Forecasts 38
Sector-Specific Methodology 39
Sources 39
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 40
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 41

List of Tables

Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020)
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020)
Table: Light Vehicle Sales By Brand, January-July, Units
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020)
Table: Western Europe - Autos Production Investments
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
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