Romania Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 80

BMI Industry View

Romania's petrochemicals industry is witnessing a strong performance in a market that is witnessing

stronger growth. Increased household disposable income and the country's strategic position in the

automotive sector are supporting petrochemicals consumption. As a result, there will be plenty of upside for

the Romanian petrochemicals industry. Growth could be boosted further if Oltchim resumes full production

following privatisation, although BMI is mindful that some loss-making units could be permanently closed.

Weaker oil prices have helped Romania's downstream sectors, with refining margins improving as a result,

and thereby reversing the situation of regular quarterly losses. This is helping drive down the cost of

naphtha feedstock used in the Romanian petrochemicals industry, reviving the fortunes of the sector.

Romania's rubber and plastics output grew 4.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H116, based on the official

production indices. However, chemicals output declined 9.1% y-o-y. The output rates suggested the

petrochemicals industry was following the trends observed in 2015 when rubber and plastic grew 8.7% and

chemicals declined 5.0%. Nevertheless, Romania's biggest petrochemicals producer Oltchim reported 3.7%

y-o-y rise in turnover, generating a profit of RON24.4mn (EUR5.4mn), compared with a loss of

RON6.37mn in H115. This was largely driven by exports.

? Romania has modest olefins capacities of 200,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene and 100,000tpa

propylene, feeding capacities totalling 320,000tpa polyethylene and 80,000tpa polypropylene. It also has

60,000tpa polystyrene and 170,000tpa polyvinyl chloride. The industry is small and lacks economies of

scale to compete with foreign producers and we see no reason for capacity growth over the next five

years.

? In spite of the return to profitability, the government has indicated it will not privatise Oltchim in 2016.

Moreover, the government's decision to assist the company is now the subject of an investigation by EU

regulators for possible breach of state aid rules, according to reports in April 2016. The European

Commission said it would examine the cancellation of debt and continuing provision of electricity, steam

and saline solutions to Oltchim.

Romania Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 9
Economic 10
Operational Risk 11
Industry Forecast 13
Table: Romania Petrochemicals Indicators 16
Macroeconomic Forecasts 17
Economic Analysis 17
Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 28
Romania Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 29
Market Overview 30
Industry Trends And Developments 34
Upstream 35
Table: Refineries In Romania 37
Company Profile 38
Lukoil Romania 38
Oltchim 40
Petrom 43
Rompetrol 49
Table: Financial Results (USDmn) 51
Regional Overview 52
Europe Overview 52
Global Industry Overview 63
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Romania 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Romania 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Romania 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (Romania 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Romania 1990-2025) 73
Glossary 75
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 75
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 80

List of Tables

Table: Romania Petrochemicals Indicators
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Table: Refineries In Romania
Table: Financial Results (USDmn)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Romania 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Romania 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Romania 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Romania 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Romania 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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