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BMI View: Strong growth in imports in particular will boost Romania's freight transport network in 2016
and beyond. A rapid expansion in wages will boost household spending power lending particular support to
air and road freight volumes. Real GDP growth will be second only to Ireland in the EU.
The Romanian road haulage sector will enjoy healthy volume growth in 2016 which will speed up further
over the remainder of our forecast period to 2020. Although already fairly well developed, growth will be
driven by strong domestic demand for imported consumer goods, following a rapid rise in disposable
incomes. Over the longer term, EU-funded investment in new roads will support both domestic volumes and
the country's attractiveness as a transit hub.
Despite significant challenges from aging infrastructure which has forced rail freight operators' trains to run
extremely slowly, we expect positive growth in Romanian rail freight volumes in 2016 and over the next
several years, bolstered by a positive outlook for grains production. Infrastructure investment is desperately
needed if the sector is to continue to compete, and we believe that the EU will be a major source of funds
Our highly positive outlook on the Romanian consumer leads us to a similarly buoyant view on the
country's air freight sector. While coming from a fairly low base, we expect strong growth over the course
of our forecast period, outpacing our expectations for both road and rail freight.