Poland Renewables Report Q3 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 37

BMI View: We maintain our subdued outlook for the development of Poland's non-hydro renewables

industry as the country's Law and Justice (PiS) government is implementing restrictive measures to slow

down expansion of the wind power sector. We believe these requirements will have an adverse impact on

the deployment of new wind power projects as well as the operating environment of existing projects, while

the regulatory uncertainty will likely deter investors from entering the country's renewables market.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? After a significant downgrade in Q116, this quarter we have maintained our forecasts for Poland's nonhydro

renewables sector. We expect both non-hydro renewables capacity and generation to average 3.4%

growth per annum during 2016-2025.

? We retain our view that non-hydro renewables' share in the country power generation mix will rise from

the currently estimated 15.3% to 18.1% in 2025.

? In May 2016, Poland's parliament passed a legislation significantly tightening regulations for the

development of wind power. The new requirements include location requirements and higher property

taxes.

? Taking into consideration these new restrictions, we expect the growth in the wind power to slow down

significantly. We forecast annual wind capacity expansion to average 2.5% between 2016 and 2020,

compared to an annual average of 34.6% between 2011 and 2015.

? In May 2016, Israel-based Energix Renewable Energies obtained more than PLN250mn (USD64mn) of

financing for the 56MW Phase II of its Banie wind project in north west Poland. The wind farm has a

total capacity of 192MW.

Poland Renewables Report Q3 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Poland Renewables Forecast Scenario 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025) 20
Poland Renewables Projects Database 21
Table: Poland - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 21
Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
Poland Renewables Risk/Reward Index 22
Rewards 22
Risks 23
Market Overview 24
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 24
Targets 24
Subsidies 25
Infrastructure 26
Competitive Landscape 27
Tauron Polska Energia 28
PGE/PSE 29
ENEA 29
Energa 30
RWE/STOEN 30
Glossary 31
Table: Glossary Of Terms 31
Methodology 32
Methodology And Sources 32
Industry Forecast Methodology 32
Sources 34
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 34
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 36
Table: Weighting Indicators 37

List of Tables

Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Poland - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators
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