Poland Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 100

BMI View: We do not include shale gas production within our Polish gas production outlook to 2025. The

slow pace of exploration is unlikely to pick up in the coming years, tempering the development of belowground

understanding and optimised drilling and hydraulic fracturing processes required for Poland's

challenging geology. Conventional gas exploration and developments will slowly boost gas production over

our forecast period.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- We have downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing any contribution in growth

from shale gas. Exploration for unconventional gas in Poland has come to a near standstill and is unlikely

to pick up within the next few years.

- Highlighting the continued morose exploration scene, PGNiG announced in May 2016 it will end

exploration for shale gas if a 'last chance' well does not yield promising results in June. This would be a

death blow to shale exploration efforts in Poland (at least for the coming years) given PGNiG is the last

large company still exploring for shale gas in Poland.

Poland Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Oil 12
Gas 13
Shale Exploration Grinds To A Halt 15
Table: Poland Shale Gas Exploration Licenses 15
Upstream Projects 20
Table: Poland - Major Upstream Projects 20
Upstream Production - Oil 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2014-2019) 23
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2020-2025) 23
Upstream Production - Gas 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trend 24
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2020-2025) 28
Refining 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Poland 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Poland 2020-2025) 31
Refined Fuels Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2014-2019) 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2020-2025) 34
Gas Consumption 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 37
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Oil 39
Crude Oil 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2014-2020) 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 41
Refined Fuels 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Poland - Alternatives To Direct Russian Imports Over Coming Years 47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 51
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 51
Industry Risk/Reward Index 52
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 52
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 52
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 53
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 56
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 56
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 59
Poland - Risk/Reward Index 60
Poland Upstream Index - Rewards 60
Poland Upstream Index - Risks 60
Poland Downstream Index - Overview 61
Market Overview 62
Poland Energy Market Overview 62
Overview/State Role 62
Fiscal And Licensing Regime Up To 2016 62
Table: Poland Fiscal and Licensing Regime 62
Shale Gas Licensing, Regulation And Taxation 63
Licensing Rounds 67
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 68
Oil Refineries 68
Table: Downstream Projects 68
Service Stations 68
Oil Terminals/Ports 68
Oil Pipelines 69
LNG Terminals 71
Gas Storage Facilities 71
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland 71
Gas Pipelines 72
Competitive Landscape 75
Competitive Landscape Summary 75
Table: Key Players - Poland Oil And Gas Sector 76
Table: Key Upstream Player 77
Table: Key Downstream Players 77
Company Profile 78
PKN Orlen 78
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Poland 79
Table: Key Financial Data (PLNmn) 80
Grupa Lotos 81
Company Overview 81
Table: Major Downstream Asset in Poland 82
Table: Key Financial Data ('000PLN) 82
PGNiG 83
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Poland 84
Regional Overview 86
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 86
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 86
Oil Consumption: Long Term Growth To Be Gentle 87
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 88
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 89
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 90
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 91
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 92
Glossary 93
Table: Glossary Of Terms 93
Methodology 95
Industry Forecast Methodology 95
Source 97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 97
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 99
Table: Weighting 100

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020)
Table: Poland Shale Gas Exploration Licenses
Table: Poland - Major Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Poland - Alternatives To Direct Russian Imports Over Coming Years
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Poland Fiscal and Licensing Regime
Table: Downstream Projects
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland
Table: Key Players - Poland Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Poland
Table: Key Financial Data (PLNmn)
Table: Major Downstream Asset in Poland
Table: Key Financial Data ('000PLN)
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Poland
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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