Poland Defence and Security Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 44

BMI View: We forecast substantial increases in Polish defence expenditure over the coming years, as

Warsaw continues its armed forces modernisation programme amid a persistent threat of Russian

aggression. Military spending will likely be kept close to the NATO-stipulated 2.0% of GDP. While Poland

will remain dependent on imports to meet many of its armed forces' requirements for the foreseeable future,

we expect the country's overall defence trade deficit to gradually narrow, as local military manufacturing

capabilities strengthen.

Latest Updates:

? For 2016, we expect Polish defence expenditure to come in at around PLN37.2bn (USD9.2bn),

amounting to 2.0% of GDP. This marks a y-o-y increase in the core defence budget; however, overall -

ie, including defence-related tasks - it is lower than the figure for 2015, when defence spending made up

2.2% of GDP.

? Poland plans to allow civilians to sign up for military training. Although Poland ended conscription

in 2008, some 36,000 reservists are set to be called up to take part in exercises in 2016. The ministry also

plans to involve paramilitary groups in the new defence policy.

? Poland has initiated talks to deploy some troops in neighbouring Latvia, and potentially in other Baltic

states, to bolster the regional NATO presence due to growing Russian aggression in the region and the

fact that Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, shares borders with two EU and NATO member

countries.

? Poland has announced its desire for a permanent US troop presence amid fears over a growing Russian

military threat.

? The Polish President has approved a decision to prolong the mandate of the Polish military contingent in

Afghanistan for another year.

Poland Defence and Security Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure (Poland 2016-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Defence Industry SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Defence Expenditure 11
Table: Defence Expenditure (Poland 2014-2019) 12
Table: Defence Expenditure (Poland 2020-2025) 12
Defence Trade 13
Exports 14
Imports 15
Table: Poland - Bilateral Defence Agreements 16
Industry Risk Reward Indices 17
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk/Reward Index 17
Rewards 18
Risks 19
Market Overview 20
Defence Market Overview 20
Domestic Defence Sector 20
Domestic Defence Market 23
Armed Forces Overview 28
Armed Forces 28
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Poland 2008-2015) 29
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Poland 2016-2025) 29
Table: Polish Armed Forces - Overseas Deployments 31
Security Overview 32
Domestic Threats 32
Regional Threats 32
Company Profile 35
Polish Defence Holdings 35
Huta Stalowa Wola SA 37
WSK PZL Mielec 38
WSK PZL Rzeszow 39
Methodology 40
Industry Forecast Methodology 40
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 41
Sector-Specific Methodology 43
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 43
Weighting 44
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 44

List of Tables

Table: Headline Defence Expenditure (Poland 2016-2020)
Table: Defence Expenditure (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Defence Expenditure (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Poland - Bilateral Defence Agreements
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk/Reward Index
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Poland 2008-2015)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Poland 2016-2025)
Table: Polish Armed Forces - Overseas Deployments
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index
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