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BMI View: We forecast substantial increases in Polish defence expenditure over the coming years, as
Warsaw continues its armed forces modernisation programme amid a persistent threat of Russian
aggression. Military spending will likely be kept close to the NATO-stipulated 2.0% of GDP. While Poland
will remain dependent on imports to meet many of its armed forces' requirements for the foreseeable future,
we expect the country's overall defence trade deficit to gradually narrow, as local military manufacturing
? For 2016, we expect Polish defence expenditure to come in at around PLN37.2bn (USD9.2bn),
amounting to 2.0% of GDP. This marks a y-o-y increase in the core defence budget; however, overall -
ie, including defence-related tasks - it is lower than the figure for 2015, when defence spending made up
2.2% of GDP.
? Poland plans to allow civilians to sign up for military training. Although Poland ended conscription
in 2008, some 36,000 reservists are set to be called up to take part in exercises in 2016. The ministry also
plans to involve paramilitary groups in the new defence policy.
? Poland has initiated talks to deploy some troops in neighbouring Latvia, and potentially in other Baltic
states, to bolster the regional NATO presence due to growing Russian aggression in the region and the
fact that Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, shares borders with two EU and NATO member
? Poland has announced its desire for a permanent US troop presence amid fears over a growing Russian
? The Polish President has approved a decision to prolong the mandate of the Polish military contingent in
Afghanistan for another year.