PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-May-2013
No. of pages: 106

Summary

GlobalData has released its new Country report, "PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022". Hepatitis C is a liver infection caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV) that results in acute or chronic presentation. The disease is often asymptomatic, but infected patients may experience fatigue, joint pain, itchy skin or jaundice. There is no effective vaccine against HCV, so the market is driven by therapeutics. Currently, drug combinations containing pegylated interferon (e.g., Roche's Pegasys and Merck's PegIntron) and ribavirin (e.g., Roche's Copegus and Merck's Rebetol) are used to treat HCV infection. Patients infected with HCV genotype 1 can also have a protease inhibitor added to their combination therapy, such as Merck's Victrelis (boceprevir) or Vertex's Incivek (telaprevir). The entrance of next-generation HCV therapies is expected to fundamentally change the HCV treatment algorithm. GlobalData expects a dramatic shift favoring the uptake of interferon-free regimens due to their more tolerable side-effect profiles and decreased duration of therapy compared with the current standard of care.

The anticipated main drivers of market growth during the forecast period include an increased awareness of the disease and the country's tendency to treat HCV once it is diagnosed.

Standard interferon drugs are the current market leader in China. GlobalData's primary research revealed that Merck's Intron A (interferon alfa-2b) is the most commonly prescribed standard interferon in China, but that Roferon-A (interferon alfa-2a) and Kadmon's Infergen (interferon alfacon-1) are also used frequently. Standard interferon requires more-frequent dosing than peginterferon alpha, but standard interferon has been able to retain its market share in China in the face of competition from peginterferon due to its lower cost.

Scope


  • Overview of the HCV including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.

  • Detailed information on the key drugs in China including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

  • Sales forecast for the top drugs in China from 2012-2022.

  • Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting China HCV market.


Reasons to buy

  • Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return

  • Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for HCV

  • Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential

  • Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance

  • Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in China

PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Table Of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8

2 Introduction 9
2.1 Catalyst 9
2.2 Related Reports 9
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 10

3 Disease Overview 11
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 12
3.1.1 Etiology 12
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 15
3.1.3 Prognosis 16
3.2 Symptoms 16

4 Disease Management 17
4.1 Diagnosis and Referral Overview 17
4.2 Treatment Overview 18
4.3 China 21
4.3.1 Diagnosis 21
4.3.2 Clinical Practice 21

5 Competitive Assessment 22
5.1 Overview 22
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 22
5.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands 24
5.3.1 Incivek (telaprevir) 24
5.3.2 Pegasys (peginterferon alfa-2a) 29
5.3.3 PegIntron (peginterferon alfa-2b) 34
5.3.4 Copegus, Rebetol, and Generic Ribavirin 38
5.3.5 Therapeutic Class: Interferon 41

6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 42
6.1 Overview 42
6.2 Unmet Needs 43
6.2.1 Unmet Need: Treatment Tolerability 43
6.2.2 Unmet Need: Efficacy 43
6.2.3 Unmet Need: Disease Awareness 44
6.2.4 Unmet Need: Treatment Cost 45
6.2.5 Unmet Need: Shorter Treatment Duration 45
6.2.6 Unmet Need: Simplified Treatment Regimens 46
6.3 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 47
6.4 Opportunities 48
6.4.1 Opportunity: Pan-genotypic HCV Regimen 48
6.4.2 Opportunity: Treatment of Underrepresented Patient Populations 48
6.4.3 Opportunity: Involvement of Immune System 49

7 Pipeline Assessment 50
7.1 Overview 50
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 51
7.2.1 Simeprevir 53
7.2.2 Faldaprevir and Faldaprevir plus BI 207127 61
7.2.3 Daclatasvir and Daclatasvir plus Asunaprevir 69
7.2.4 Other Drug Classes 77

8 Market Outlook 80
8.1 China 80
8.1.1 Forecast 80
8.1.2 Key Events 84
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 84

9 Appendix 86
9.1 Bibliography 86
9.2 Abbreviations 94
9.3 Methodology 96
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 96
9.4.1 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 96
9.4.2 Patient Warehousing 97
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 97
9.4.4 General Pricing Assumptions 97
9.4.5 Individual Drug Assumptions 98
9.4.6 Generic Erosion 100
9.4.7 Selection of Pipeline Agents 100
9.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 100
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 102
9.6 Survey of Prescribing Physicians 104
9.7 About the Authors 105
9.7.1 Author 105
9.7.2 Global Head of Healthcare 105
9.8 About GlobalData 106
9.9 Contact Us 106
9.10 Disclaimer 106

List Of Tables

Table 1: Modes of HCV Transmission 15
Table 2: Symptoms of Acute and Chronic HCV Infection 16
Table 3: HCV Genotypes Present in the 9MM 18
Table 4: General Standard of Care by HCV Genotype 18
Table 5: Treatment Guidelines for HCV by Country 20
Table 6: Most-Prescribed Drugs for HCV by Class in the Global Markets, 2013 20
Table 7: Leading Treatments for HCV, 2012 23
Table 8: Product Profile - Incivek 25
Table 9: Efficacy of Incivek in Treatment-Naïve Patients (ADVANCE Trial) 25
Table 10: Efficacy of Incivek in Treatment-Experienced Patients (REALIZE Trial) 26
Table 11: Common Incivek Adverse Drug Reactions 27
Table 12: Incivek SWOT Analysis, 2012 28
Table 13: Product Profile - Pegasys 30
Table 14: Antiviral Efficacy of Peginterferon alfa-2a Compared with Interferon alfa-2b 31
Table 15: Pegasys SWOT Analysis, 2012 33
Table 16: Product Profile - PegIntron 35
Table 17: Antiviral Efficacy of Peginterferon alfa-2b Compared with Interferon alfa-2b 35
Table 18: PegIntron SWOT Analysis, 2012 37
Table 19: Effect of Addition of Ribavirin to Peginterferon HCV Therapy 39
Table 20: Ribavirin SWOT Analysis, 2012 40
Table 21: Summary of Minor Therapeutic Classes, 2012 41
Table 22: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 42
Table 23: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2012 47
Table 24: HCV - Pipeline, 2012 51
Table 25: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for HCV, 2012 52
Table 26: Janssen's Simeprevir Ongoing Clinical Trials of Interest 54
Table 27: Product Profile - Simeprevir 55
Table 28: PILLAR Clinical Trial Results 55
Table 29: Adverse Events Observed in PILLAR Clinical Trial 56
Table 30: Simeprevir SWOT Analysis, 2012 60
Table 31: Boehringer Ingelheim's Faldaprevir Ongoing Clinical Trials of Interest 62
Table 32: Product Profile - Faldaprevir 63
Table 33: Efficacy of Interferon-Free Faldaprevir Regimen (SOUND-C2 Trial) 63
Table 34: Faldaprevir SWOT Analysis, 2012 68
Table 35: Bristol-Myers Squibb's Daclatasvir Ongoing Clinical Trials of Interest 70
Table 36: Product Profile - Daclatasvir 71
Table 37: Efficacy of Daclatasvir in Treatment-Naïve Patients (COMMAND-1 Trial) 71
Table 38: Daclatasvir and Asunaprevir Quad Therapy Efficacy 72
Table 39: Daclatasvir Triple Therapy Adverse Events 73
Table 40: Daclatasvir SWOT Analysis, 2012 76
Table 41: Comparison of Peginterferon lambda with Peginterferon alfa (EMERGE Trial) 77
Table 42: Efficacy of Alisporivir in Treatment-Naïve HCV GT2/3 Patients (VITAL-1 Trial) 78
Table 43: Sales Forecasts ($m) for HCV in China, 2012-2022 82
Table 44: Key Events Impacting Sales for HCV in China, 2012 84
Table 45: Chinese HCV Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2012 84
Table 46: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 104

List Of Figures

Figure 1: HCV Genome and Polyprotein Composition 12
Figure 2: HCV Lifecycle Overview 13
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in HCV, 2012-2022 51
Figure 4: Sales for HCV Therapeutics in China by Drug Class, 2012-2022 83

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