Peru Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 74

BMI View: We continue to maintain a generally positive outlook for the Peruvian agricultural sector. We

have modestly revised our forecasts for several segments of the Peruvian agricultural sector in our Q4 2016

update though continue to maintain a positive outlook for the agricultural sector as a whole. Export crops

such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by infrastructure constraints and a lack of investment; however, as

Peru develops and gains recognition for organic and speciality crops, both these sectors stand to benefit.

Peru is also set to benefit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains and weakness in the

Argentine peso, as Argentina is a major source of imported grains. Recently the focus has shifted towards

the coffee and cocoa crop, both strong export based revenue generating commodities for the Peruvian

economy. Peru is one of the largest exporters of coffee, and organic coffee in particular. The recent rust

disease significantly diminished the national coffee crop and has forced many smaller, independent farmers

into bankruptcy. Looking forward, we believe that both coffee and cocoa will post strong gains.

Furthermore the dairy and livestock sectors will also grow significantly based on rising incomes and

private final consumption levels.

Key Forecasts

? Poultry production to 2019/2020: 1.429mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper

imported feed will support growth in the sector.

? Sugar consumption to 2020: 1.648mn tonnes. Low sugar prices and the rapid expansion of the local

confectionery and soft drinks sector will see an expansion in demand for sugar in the coming years.

? Corn consumption to 2020: 4.64mn tonnes. Domestic consumption of corn is set to increase as Peru

imports more corn from Andean neighbours at a cheap price.

? Cocoa production to 2020: 98,000 tonnes. Cocoa production will increase as export demand remains

stable and investment is made into Peruvian cocoa infrastructure.

Peru Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Cocoa Outlook 11
Table: Peru - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption 14
Coffee Outlook 14
Table: Peru - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption 18
Sugar Outlook 18
Table: Peru Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption 21
Grains Outlook 22
Table: Peru Grain Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Table: Peru Grain Production And Consumption 25
Livestock Outlook 26
Table: Peru Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Risks To Outlook 28
Table: Livestock Production And Consumption 29
Dairy Outlook 30
Table: Peru Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 31
Table: Risks To Outlook 32
Table: Peru Dairy Production And Consumption 33
Commodities Price Analysis 35
Commodities Forecasts 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 35
Upstream Analysis 37
Americas GM Outlook 37
Americas Machinery Outlook 44
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 47
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 51
Downstream Analysis 59
Food 59
Agri-Industrial 59
Fisheries 60
Food Processing 60
Organic Farming 60
Regional Overview 61
Competitive Landscape 67
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 67
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Peru 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Peru 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Peru 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Peru 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Peru 1990-2025) 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology 74

List of Tables

Table: Peru - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption
Table: Peru - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption
Table: Peru Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption
Table: Peru Grain Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Peru Grain Production And Consumption
Table: Peru Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Livestock Production And Consumption
Table: Peru Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Peru Dairy Production And Consumption
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Peru 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Peru 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Peru 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Peru 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Peru 1990-2025)
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