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BMI View: Oman's power sector is expected to undergo a big jump in output in 2019, as several major
projects come to full fruition in the gas fired thermal power segment, which will remain dominant over our
forecast period. Generation growth should be in the mid single digits over the period 2016 to 2018 and then
the low single digits between 2020 to 2025, according to our core scenario, although that latter five year
period is prone to upside risks, in view of nascent fresh plans emerging in the last quarter.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? Our forecasts have undergone a modest revision this quarter. We now expect generation to rise 5.7% in
2016, to 39.35TWh, a slight downward revision from the 6.2% growth earlier forecast.
? Growth in thermal output is then forecast at 4.0% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018, ahead of a 30.9% jump in
2019, which will take generation by this sub-sector to 57.0TWh. The year 2019 will see the Ibri and
Sohar projects come to full fruition.