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BMI View: We have maintained our moribund forecast for growth in electricity generation and capacity
this quarter, amid a bleak economic outlook, ongoing disruptions to gas supplies from the Niger Delta and
naira weakness. Our view is Nigeria is set to undergo a painful multi-year adjustment to lower oil prices
has significant implications for investment in the power sector and compounds our negative outlook for
capacity expansion - with private players likely to delay or cancel investment in the power sector until the
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? This list of broader economic challenges facing Nigeria has compounded our negative outlook for the
domestic power sector and - when economic challenges are viewed in conjunction with sector-specific
risks - there is limited upside to our forecast. Companies in the Nigerian power sector will continue to be
hit by oil and gas pipeline sabotage, an inability to access the foreign exchange needed to buy equipment
and a lack of liquidity in the distribution segment.
? We maintained our conservative power generation and capacity forecast in light of severe disruptions to
gas supply to power plants - amid continued violence and attacks on pipeline infrastructure in the Niger
Delta. We forecast gas-fired electricity generation will contract by almost 16% in 2016 and note investors
have started to cancel planned gas power projects.
? The gas supply problems have led to an increase in government rhetoric related to energy mix
diversification. The minister for Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola said in August 2016 coal
would play a bigger role in the country's future electricity mix. NBET is currently working on a tariff for
coal-to-power generation that would underpin future PPAs.