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BMI View: Our view on the Nigerian agribusiness sector is mixed. The cocoa industry assumes a greater
importance in the country's medium-term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer be relied
upon as an easy source of foreign exchange. We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantations and
processing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to move forward.
Poultry, dairy, sugar, rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largely on
imports to meet demand, although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commodities
(apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. In each case, consumption growth is
expected to be weakened by the country's macroeconomic situation, particularly in the earlier years of our
forecast period. Poor infrastructure, lack of access to inputs and basic technology, fragmentation and a
lack of access to finance and expertise are among the factors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the
medium-term prospects for self-sufficiency.
Key BMI Forecasts
? Cocoa production growth to 2019/20: 44.5% to 289,100 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently
elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.
? Corn consumption growth to 2020: 12.8% to 8.5mn tonnes. Population growth will be the key driver
of increased demand.
? 2016 real GDP growth: -0.8% (down from 2.8% in 2015).
? 2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 15.1% (up from 9.0% in 2015).