Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 71

BMI View: Our view on the Nigerian agribusiness sector is mixed. The cocoa industry assumes a greater

importance in the country's medium-term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer be relied

upon as an easy source of foreign exchange. We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantations and

processing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to move forward.

Poultry, dairy, sugar, rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largely on

imports to meet demand, although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commodities

(apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. In each case, consumption growth is

expected to be weakened by the country's macroeconomic situation, particularly in the earlier years of our

forecast period. Poor infrastructure, lack of access to inputs and basic technology, fragmentation and a

lack of access to finance and expertise are among the factors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the

medium-term prospects for self-sufficiency.

Key BMI Forecasts

? Cocoa production growth to 2019/20: 44.5% to 289,100 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently

elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.

? Corn consumption growth to 2020: 12.8% to 8.5mn tonnes. Population growth will be the key driver

of increased demand.

? 2016 real GDP growth: -0.8% (down from 2.8% in 2015).

? 2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 15.1% (up from 9.0% in 2015).

Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Cocoa Outlook 11
Table: Nigeria - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 14
Rice Outlook 15
Table: Nigeria - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 18
Livestock And Dairy Outlook 19
Table: Nigeria - Poultry Production & Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Nigeria - Pork Production & Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Nigeria - Milk Production & Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 23
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 23
Grains Outlook 24
Table: Nigeria - Wheat Production & Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Nigeria - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook 25
Table: Risks To Outlook 25
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 28
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 28
Sugar Outlook 29
Table: Nigeria - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook 29
Table: Risks To Outlook 30
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020) 31
Commodities Price Analysis 32
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 32
Upstream Analysis 34
Africa Machinery Outlook 34
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 34
Africa GM Outlook 39
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 46
Downstream Analysis 53
Food 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 54
Table: Food Sales (Nigeria 2013-2020) 55
Regional Overview 58
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview 58
Competitive Landscape 64
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 64
Demographic Forecast 65
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025) 66
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025) 66
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025) 68
Methodology 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Sector-Specific Methodology 71

List of Tables

Table: Nigeria - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Nigeria - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Nigeria - Poultry Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Nigeria - Pork Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Nigeria - Milk Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Nigeria - Wheat Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Nigeria - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Nigeria - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Food Sales (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
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