Dengue Cases will Increase 304,608 to 339,104 in 2023

Date: 14-May-2014
Dengue fever is a febrile illness caused by a single-stranded flavirius most commonly transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue fever is one of the most prevalent arthropod-borne diseases affecting humans. The severity of dengue fever ranges from asymptomatic cases, to classic dengue fever, and to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS).

This report provides an overview of the dengue fever risk factors and comorbidities, global and historical epidemiology trends, and circulating serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) in five major markets (5MM) (Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand). In addition, this report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases of dengue fever (including classic dengue fever, DHF, and DSS) for the 5MM. The reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases are segmented by sex and age (<1 year, 1 year, 2-14 years, 15-44 years, 45-64 years, and ≥65 years).

Epidemiologists sourced government-based publications for the forecast of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue fever cases, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases.

Epidemiologists forecast that laboratory-confirmed dengue cases in the 5MM will increase from an annual average of 304,608 cases from 2009-2013 to 339,104 cases in 2023 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.13%. Brazil will have almost half the number of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue cases among the 5MM throughout the forecast period (207,000 cases in 2023). Epidemiologists believe that introductions of new or long-dormant dengue serotypes would be a significant driver in disease transmission in the 5MM during the next 10 years.

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