New Zealand Renewables Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 35

BMI View: New Zealand's non-hydroelectric renewables market remains far behind its potential. Lacking

demand pressures and a central government feed-in-tariff system, capacity additions are highly limited with

growth of 0.1% expected for 2016 and 2017. While new impetus may come from the planned retirement of

fossil fuel plants, its postponement until 2022 in combination with the absence of meaningful electricity

demand growth has put new projects on the backburner.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? For 2016 and 2017, we expect the non-hydro renewable capacity market to stagnate at growth levels of

about 0.1%. In our 10-year forecast until 2025, non-hydro capacity is expected to only grow by an

average of 2.3% and non-hydro generation by a similar 2.6%.

? In July 2016, New Zealand's Electricity Authority ruled that the residential 'solar tax' (an additional fee

for connecting solar installations to the grid) was lawful, with potentially negative implications for the

pace and scope of future residential solar installations.

? In April 2016, New Zealand's largest electricity company Genesis announced the extension of operation

at the Huntly power plant until 2022 to prevent a potential undersupply. The plant was previously

planned to retire by end-2018, with the arising costs of continued operation being borne jointly by

Genesis and other electricity generators. The decision is the result of only sluggish growth in renewable

projects and might undermine hoped-for incentives for the non-hydro renewable market to pick up pace.

New Zealand Renewables Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: New Zealand - Headline Renewables Forecasts 5
SWOT 6
Industry Forecast 7
New Zealand Renewables Forecast Scenario 7
Latest Updates 8
Structural Trends 8
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2019) 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2020-2025) 19
New Zealand Renewables Projects Database 20
Table: New Zealand - Top Non-Hydropower Renewable Projects By Size (MW) 20
Industry Risk/Reward Index 21
New Zealand Renewables Risk/Reward Index 21
Market Overview 23
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure 23
Targets 23
Subsidies 25
Infrastructure 25
Competitive Landscape 26
Mighty River Power/Mercury 26
Contact Energy 27
Genesis Energy 27
Meridian Energy 28
Trustpower 28
Glossary 29
Table: Glossary Of Terms 29
Methodology 30
Methodology And Sources 30
Industry Forecast Methodology 30
Sources 32
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 32
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 34
Table: Weighting Indicators 35

List of Tables

Table: New Zealand - Headline Renewables Forecasts
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2020-2025)
Table: New Zealand - Top Non-Hydropower Renewable Projects By Size (MW)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators
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