Consumer durables is a cataloguing of consumer goods that are not essential to be bought very often as they are fashioned in a way so as to last for an extended period of time. Profits in the consumer durables sector were most profoundly…
BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will
prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand throughout the medium-tolong
term. This will be supportive for the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will
benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand
and relatively limited production capacity. However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to
low prices on the international market, as well as herd rebuilding. We believe prices will pick up again
later in 2017.
? Milk production growth to 2019/20: 4.6% to 22.9mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption
base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export
opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy
consumption growth over our forecast period.
? Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 15.4% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments,
export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
? 2016 real GDP growth: 2.3%, down from 3.0% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2016 and