BMI View: Strong legal, political and social pressures are and will continue to see large production cuts at
the key Groningen gas field. This will greatly reduce the Netherlands' role as a key swing gas supplier to
Western Europe over the decade, with net exports nearly disappearing by the second half of our forecast
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
? Given the mature status of the Netherlands' key Groningen field and many of its offshore fields, we
expect gas reserves will steadily decline throughout our forecast period. Oil reserves will remain low.
Lower oil prices will further limit investment in oil exploration over the coming years, and exploration
will remain focused on gas.
? Legal, political and social reasons pressured the Dutch government to reduce production targets for the
Groningen field from 42.5bcm in 2014 to 30.0bcm in 2015. This quarter, we have slightly downgraded
our gas production forecast to the downside for 2016 onwards. The Dutch government has revised down
the annual production cap for its giant Groningen gas field from 27.0bcm to 24.0bcm, leading us to the
slightly revise down our production forecast. When added to maturing production from other onshore and
offshore fields, Dutch gas production will be significantly reduced over our forecast period.
? With gas production cuts at Groningen and continued high domestic demand for gas, the Netherlands' net
export capacity has fallen significantly over 2013-2015 and is expected to continue on a decline within
the forecast period.
? The Netherlands is a small oil producer and the overall trend from its mature fields remains one of
decline. While upside risk exists from new discoveries and enhanced oil recovery techniques at older
fields, we expect overall oil production will trend downwards over our forecast period.